Cov khoom lag luam poob tab sis keeb kwm qhia tias Lub Lag Luam Dais no tuaj yeem rov qab tau sai dua li lwm tus

Tojsiab

Cov khoom lag luam tau tawm tsam rau kev taw qhia txij li poob mus rau hauv lub lag luam dais thaum ntxov lub hlis no thaum muaj kev poob nyiaj txiag txaus ntshai, tab sis keeb kwm qhia tau hais tias kev lag luam nrawm nrawm ntawm kev poob xyoo no tuaj yeem yog qhov cim zoo - nrog rau cov khoom lag luam yuav rov qab los yog kev lag luam dav dav kom tsis txhob poob qis. .

Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb

S&P 500 tau poob rau hauv kev lag luam dais thaum Lub Rau Hli 13, kaw ntau dua 20% los ntawm nws cov ntaub ntawv siab thaum Lub Ib Hlis; thiab txawm hais tias qhov ntsuas ntsuas ntsuas tau rov qab siab dua qhov pib lub lim tiam dhau los, cov khoom lag luam tau poob thiab thawb kev lag luam qis dua ib zaug.

"Tsis muaj ob lub lag luam dais zoo ib yam," raws li Bespoke Investment Group; uas tau hais tias, tshaj li ib nrab ntawm kev lag luam dais txij li Kev Tsov Rog Thoob Ntiaj Teb thib XNUMX tau ua ntej kev lag luam poob qis tab sis cov uas tsis ua rau muaj kev lag luam poob qis yuav kav ntev dua, nyob rau nruab nrab.

"Xov xwm zoo yog tias kev lag luam bull siv tsuas yog 161 hnub dhau los mus los ntawm nws qhov siab tshaj mus rau 20% qhov pib poob qis-piv rau qhov nruab nrab ntawm 245 hnub hauv kev lag luam dais yav dhau los," Sam Stovall, tus thawj coj peev txheej rau CFRA Kev Tshawb Fawb.

Raws li keeb kwm S&P 500 rov qab los txij li xyoo 1945, qhov "ceev" qhovntsej thiaj tsis mob mus rau hauv lub lag luam dais feem ntau yuav ua rau muaj teeb meem ntau dua "nthuav" ua ntej es tsis yog "mega-meltdowns" - poob ntawm 40% lossis ntau dua, nws hais ntxiv.

Muaj tsib lub lag luam dais yav dhau los uas S&P 500 tau nce mus txog 20% ​​poob qis hauv lub sijhawm nruab nrab (1961, 1966, 1987, 1990 thiab 2020), thiab nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov piv txwv, qhov nruab nrab kev lag luam poob qis dua 27% , Stovall taw qhia.

Zuag qhia tag nrho, nyob rau hauv tag nrho 14 dais kev lag luam txij li xyoo 1945, S&P 500 poob los ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm 32% thiab siv qhov nruab nrab ntawm 12 lub hlis los nrhiav hauv qab, thaum tag nrho cov nyiaj poob qis hauv qhov nruab nrab ntawm 23 lub hlis, raws li CFRA cov ntaub ntawv.

Qhov tseeb ceeb:

Kev lag luam tsis ntev los no (thiab luv tshaj plaws) dais lag luam yog nyob rau lub Peb Hlis 2020, thaum Covid kis thoob qhov txhia chaw tau xa Asmeskas kev lag luam mus rau kev lag luam luv luv. Qhov kev poob qis ntawd luv luv dua li lwm lub lag luam dais yav dhau los, txawm li cas los xij, tsuas yog siv sijhawm ib hlis piv rau cov lag luam dais tom qab dot-com tsoo, uas tau kav 31 lub hlis. Cov khoom lag luam tsuas yog siv sijhawm dhau ib hlis kom qis qis ntawm ze li 34% poob qis thaum xyoo 2020 dais lag luam.

Tseem Ceeb:

"Keeb kwm, kev lag luam dais tam sim no yog qhov sib piv rau ntau qhov pom txij li xyoo 1946," hais tias Lindsey Bell, tus thawj coj nyiaj txiag & kev lag luam rau Ally. Yog tias Fed muaj peev xwm "them kev nce nqi qis dua," uas ua rau muaj qhov tshwm sim ntau dua ntawm tsuas yog "mob" kev lag luam qeeb, ua "dub dais lag luam" muaj peev xwm, nws sau tseg, ntxiv tias thaum cov khoom lag luam poob qis, rov qab los. xyoo tom ntej no feem ntau muaj zog heev.

Dab Tsi Los Saib:

"Yog tias muaj kev kub ntxhov tag nrho thiab kev lag luam poob qis xws li xyoo 2000-2002 thiab 2008-09 tuaj yeem zam tau, lub lag luam dais no yuav qis dua sai sai," kwv yees Ryan Detrick, tus thawj coj lag luam tawm tswv yim rau LPL Financial. Nrog ntau tshaj ib nrab ntawm tsib lub lag luam dhau los xaus rau hauv peb lub hlis lossis tsawg dua, "kev lag luam dais tam sim no yuav nyob ze rau hauv qab dua li ntau qhov kev cia siab," nws hais ntxiv, "yuav ua li cas lub lag luam dais no yuav xaus yuav zoo li pob khawm. ntawm qhov kev nce nqi nqis los, uas yuav txiav txim rau lub sijhawm thiab qhov loj ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tus nqi nce mus nce qib. "

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