Kev lag luam Asmeskas, tom qab xyoo ntawm Covid stimulus thiab nyiaj yooj yim, yog qeeb. Cov txheej txheem … [+]
AFP ntawm Getty Dluab
Risk tawm ntawm no. Txawm tias kev ua lag luam zoo li zoo. Tsis txhob ua ntej ntawm koj skis ntawm qhov no. Kev lag luam tuaj yeem poob qis sai.
Tshaj li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve, muaj 15 lwm lub tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab koom nrog rau tus nqi nce siab. Qhov no yog qhov teeb meem No. 1 rau lub lag luam Tshuag tam sim no.
"Nws zoo li tib lo lus teb rau kev nce nqi yog txo kev noj. Lwm cov lus teb yog nce ntau lawm. Qhov ntawd txhais tau tias koj ua ntau yam khoom, "hais tias Vladimir Signorelli, tus thawj coj ntawm macro peev khw Bretton Woods Research hauv Long Valley, NJ. "Ntau yam khoom txhais tau tias tus nqi qis dua."
Txoj kev tshiab ntawm macro volatility yog ua si tawm. Kev lag luam kev lag luam poob qis thiab kev nce nqi hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas tseem tshaj 8%. Nws yog ze rau 9% hauv Tebchaws Europe, uas yog qhov phem dua li cov lag luam tawm tshiab Brazil, Is Nrias teb, South Africa thiab Tuam Tshoj. Nyob rau hauv lub BRICS, tsuas yog Lavxias teb sab inflation yog phem dua cov teb chaws Europe thiab lub US
Qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England yog txhua yam mus tom qab kev nce nqi nrog tus nqi nce txawm tias paub txog kev puas tsuaj rau kev loj hlob.
Wei Li, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb rau BlackRock Investment Institute hais tias "Kev cia siab tias cov nqi tau nce ntxiv txij li peb tau txo qis kev lag luam cov khoom lag luam hauv Lub Xya Hli - thiab kev pheej hmoo nyiaj txiag tseem tsis tau muaj nyob hauv," Lawv underweight US thiab Europe.
Kev lag luam kev lag luam tau nres hauv Asmeskas thiab Europe, nrog rau lub lim tiam dhau los FedEx
Li ntawm BlackRock xav tias Fed thiab ECB "yuav ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dhau," tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau qhov kev xav tsis thoob txog kev nce nqi. Cia siab tias txoj cai "overtightening," nws hais tias, uas txhais tau hais tias kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam tseem ceeb. Li hais tias "Peb tag nrho cov peev txheej ua haujlwm tau ua rau peb rov lees paub peb qhov kev pom ntawm kev pheej hmoo tsawg," Li hais.
European Central Bank (ECB) Thawj Tswj Hwm Christine Lagarde. Cov poj niam thiab cov txiv neej, peb mus siab dua! … [+]
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Federal Reserve, ECB yog qhov tsis zoo
Cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag tsis ntev los no tawm hauv Asmeskas tau tsis muaj txiaj ntsig, txawm tias tseem muaj zog ua lag luam.
Lub lim tiam dhau los cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom muag tau muaj qhov cuam tshuam tsis zoo rau kev siv nyiaj ntawm cov neeg siv khoom, thiab Atlanta Fed txiav nws GDPNow nrhiav kev kwv yees rau peb lub hlis twg los tsuas yog 0.5% txhua xyoo, nqis los ntawm 1.3% yav dhau los. Tsuas yog qhov zoo yog tias nws xaus qhov kev lag luam kev lag luam uas tshwm sim los ntawm kev rov qab mus rau lub quarters ntawm GDP tsis zoo. Tam sim no hais tias Asmeskas tab tom nrhiav, qee cov tub ua lag luam tuaj yeem tuaj thiab yuav ntawm qhov qis. Tab sis tam sim no muaj kev pom zoo nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam uas ntau dua qis dua tuaj. Cov neeg lag luam tuaj yeem tos kom txo qis dua hauv cov nqi sib koom thoob ntiaj teb.
"Nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum nco ntsoov tias Fed tsuas yog mob siab txog kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam mus rau qhov uas nws cuam tshuam rau lawv ob txoj haujlwm, uas yog tus nqi ruaj khov thiab kev ua haujlwm tag nrho," said Solita Marcelli, CIO rau Asmeskas rau UBS Cov Kev Pab Nyiaj Txiag.
Lub lim tiam dhau los, cov nqi roj poob qis tau pab txo qis kev nce nqi mus rau 0.1% lub hli dhau ib hlis, tab sis tag nrho CPI tau pom tias nce 0.6%. Cov nyiaj txiag tawv tawv tau ua rau muaj kev ntshai tias qhov no tau dhau los ua kev nkag siab tam sim no.
Marcelli hais tias "Peb tseem xav tias cov qauv hauv qab yog mus rau kev nce nqi qis dua," Marcelli hais. "Tab sis ntawm lub sijhawm no, nws tsis tshwm sim zoo li Fed tab tom taug kev los tsoo nws lub hom phiaj kev nce nqi 2% ntawm lub sijhawm tsim nyog."
Lub caij no, hla lub pas dej, European Union tab tom ua qhov uas tsoomfwv Western ua tau zoo tshaj plaws hnub no. Txhawm rau daws qhov teeb meem, suav nrog cov ntawm nws tus kheej ua, tsim lub zog xwm txheej ceev kom tau txais kev tswj hwm kev lag luam ntau dua.
EUs tau thov muab cov saw hlau thaum muaj xwm ceev yog ib qho loj, yog tias nws puas tau los rau fruition. Rau Phab ntsa Street, nws qhia tau tias Tebchaws Europe yuav yog ib lub lag luam nyuaj rau luv luv. Signorelli hais tias, "Yog tias nws dhau los ua ntau tshaj li qhov kev thov, nws txhais tau hais tias tsoomfwv tseem tab tom los rau Tebchaws Europe," Signorelli hais tias, qhov kev txav mus los uas yuav tshem tawm ntau lub hwj chim ntawm cov tswvcuab hauv lub tebchaws.
Federal Reserve Board Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell. Yog, mus siab dua. (Duab los ntawm Samuel Corum/Getty … [+]
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"Nws yuav txhais tau tias muaj kev kwv yees ntau dua rau kev lag luam, tab sis tag nrho cov no yog nyob rau hauv nws cov me nyuam mos," Signorelli hais. "Kuv yuav tsis yog tag nrho ntawm luv luv, tab sis kuv yuav tsis yuav ib qho khoom lag luam nyob sab Europe tam sim no. Lub tuam txhab nyiaj txiag German, tsis muaj zog pheej yig, tsis muaj ntxiv lawm. Lawv yuav tsum xav txog ib txoj hauv kev los khaws qhov ntawd. Yog tias kuv muaj cov ntaub ntawv European los tswj, kuv xav yuav UK cov khoom lag luam, "Signorelli hais. "Hlub nws lossis ntxub nws, (tus Thawj Kav Tebchaws tshiab minted) Liz Truss muaj lub tswv yim zoo ntawm cov se thiab lub zog - txo cov se thiab nce kev tsim hluav taws xob."
BlackRock yog underweight hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas thiab Europe, tab sis tseem nyob nruab nrab qhov hnyav uas tshwm sim.
Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam rov qab los rau hauv hom kev txhawb nqa, txawm tias qhov no yuav tsis yog koj lub vaj ntau yam Tuam Tshoj stimulus pob. Tuam Tshoj lub khw lag luam yog nyob rau hauv qhov sib sib zog nqus dais thaj chaw, yog li cov tub ua lag luam tuaj yeem hnov qab qhov kev siv nyiaj no thiab pib yuav cov Tuam Tshoj ETFs loj xws li FXI MCHI thiab ASHR.
Cov neeg siv khoom xav tau tseem tsis muaj zog hauv Suav teb. Cov nqi vaj tse tau poob qis thiab cov kab mob coronavirus kaw txuas ntxiv, feem ntau tsis ntev los no hauv nroog Chengdu.
Cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm lub lim tiam dhau los qhia tias kev tsim khoom lag luam nce 4.2% xyoo dhau ib xyoo raws li cov xwm txheej drought thiab hluav taws xob tsis txaus. Kev nqis peev ruaj khov hauv thawj yim lub hlis ntawm lub xyoo tau nce 5.8% los ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los, qhia tias kev txhawb nqa kev tsim vaj tsev tau los kub.
Lub renminbi tau ua lag luam ze li ntawm 7 mus rau duas, nws qib qis tshaj txij li lub Tsib Hlis 2020.
Tsis paub meej yuav nyob twj ywm siab vim kev nce nqi. Txawm hais tias Thawj Tswj Hwm Bidens tsis ntev los no tshaj tawm txog qhov kawg ntawm kev kis tus kabmob kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, qee yam kev lag luam yuav zoo siab rau lub caij ntuj sov no, tau ua me ntsis los ntxias cov nyuj mus rau kev ua lag luam.
Marcelli ntawm UBS hais tias "Peb pom kev txwv tsis pub dhau lub Rau Hli xyoo tom ntej," Marcelli ntawm UBS hais. “Ntxiv xaiv rau qhov raug. Peb nyiam kev tiv thaiv, cov nyiaj tau los zoo thiab cov khoom muaj nqis. "
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2022/09/19/stock-markets-face-deteriorating-outlook-and-returns-worldwide/