Xyoo no cov khoom lag luam sib tw tau thawb S&P 500 qhov ntsuas mus rau qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas uas ua rau nws nyuaj rau qhov ntsuas kom nce siab dua raws li qhov chaw macroeconomic tam sim no, raws li Citigroup Inc.
Tus S&P 500 tus nqi-rau-nyiaj tau los piv tau rov qab mus rau 18.2x, "muaj kev phom sij ze rau ntawm qhov kawg ntawm peb cov nqi ncaj ncees," Citi cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb txog Lub Ib Hlis 13. "Peb zoo siab nrog 3700-4000. S&P 500 trading range hu rau tam sim no. "
US cov khoom lag luam tau nce mus txog lub hlis no, nrog S&P 500 nce 4.2% txog rau hnub Friday, raws li cov tub ua lag luam tau mus rau hauv peb-hnub hnub so qhuas Martin Luther King Jr. Hnub Tuesday tav su, qhov ntsuas
SPX,
yog trading down 0.1% nyob ib ncig ntawm 3,994, raws li FactSet cov ntaub ntawv, thaum kawg kos.
"Rau tam sim no, peb xav tias kev nqis peev tuaj yeem ua rau lub sijhawm ze ntawm lub zog nce ntxiv," Citi cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais. "Raws li peb lub moj khaum tus nqi ncaj ncees, kev ntsuas ntau dua li cov qib tam sim no tsis muaj kev ruaj ntseg tshwj tsis yog tias muaj kev hloov pauv loj hauv macro backdrop."
Hauv Citi txoj kev xav, S&P 500 tab tom nkag mus rau "tus nqi tshiab, qis dua kev tswj hwm" piv nrog lub sijhawm pom txij li kev kub ntxhov thoob ntiaj teb xyoo 2008.
"Qhov no txhais tau hais tias kev nce qib hauv qhov chaw tshiab no yuav tsum tau 'tau txais' vis-à-vis nyob ze- thiab nruab nrab-lub sij hawm txhim kho, tsawg dua los ntawm macro tailwinds qab ntau qhov kev ntsuam xyuas rov qab los ntawm tus nqi qis dua," cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau sau. .
Citi tus nqi ncaj ncees txhais tau hais tias S&P 500 tus nqi-rau cov nyiaj tau los ntau ntawm 18.5x ntawm qhov siab kawg raws li tus nqi tam sim no thiab lwm yam "macro inputs" xws li kev nce nqi thiab kev loj hlob, raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom.
"18-19x yog thawb tus nqi ncaj ncees tshwj tsis yog tias peb tau txais kev cuam tshuam qeeb qeeb hauv kev nce nqi, pom tus nqi qis dua, ua ke nrog lwm cov ntawv nyeem ntau dua macro," cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais.
Daim ntawv qhia hauv qab no qhia Citi tus nqi ncaj ncees rau S&P 500 piv rau qhov ntsuas tus nqi-rau-tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau txij li xyoo 2021.
CITI RESEARCH CEEB TOOM NTAWM Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj. Peb Hlis 13, 2023
Taw tes rau cov neeg siv kev sib tham tsis ntev los no, Citi cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau hais tias muaj "kev ntseeg tsawg heev uas cov paj laum yuav poob qis dua qis dua tam sim no." Qhov ntawd yog "raws li kev pom tias Fed tsis zoo li txav los ntawm hawkish mus rau dovish dhau lub sijhawm luv dua."
Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau nce cov paj paj sai sai los tiv thaiv kev nce nqi siab, nrog ntau tus tub ua lag luam xav tias Fed yuav muaj peev xwm ncua nws cov nqi nce xyoo no vim tias qhov nce nqi ntawm kev nyob hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas pom cov cim ntawm kev yooj yim.
Raws li cov nqi nce xyoo tas los, S&P 500 tanked 19.4% hauv nws qhov kev ua haujlwm tsis zoo txij li xyoo 2008.
"Peb tseem tshuav nrog kev txiav txim siab nyob rau hauv peb qhov kev xav tsis tu ncua uas qhov kev ntsuas tus nqi-tsav lub taub hau tuaj yeem nyob twj ywm, hais txog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev khwv nyiaj tau los," Citi cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais.
Lawv tau sau tias "Kev pom zoo ntawm kev muag khoom zoo li sib koom ua ke ntawm ib nrab tsis muaj zog thawj zaug, cov lus piav qhia ib nrab muaj zog," lawv sau. "Peb muaj kev tsim kho ntau dua nyob rau ib nrab thib ob zoo li ntau ntawm peb cov phooj ywg, tab sis peb tsis pom qhov kev poob qis rau cov nyiaj khwv tau los, thiab kev txhawb nqa los ntawm kev nqis peev uas lwm tus xav tau."
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais tias "qhov no tuaj yeem cuam tshuam lub zog nce ntxiv" raws li lawv qhov kev cia siab rau qhov poob xyoo no hauv S&P 500 cov nyiaj tau los ntawm ib feem.
Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam tau ua lag luam sib xyaw rau hnub Tuesday yav tav su thaum cov tub ua lag luam tau zom cov txiaj ntsig plaub lub hlis twg los ntawm Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
GS,
thiab Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley
Ms,
uas ntaus cov nyiaj khwv tau los kwv yees, yog tus ua tau zoo tshaj plaws hauv S&P 500 rau hnub Tuesday yav tav su nrog nce ntau dua 7%, raws li FactSet cov ntaub ntawv, thaum kawg kos.
Raws li rau lwm qhov tseem ceeb hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas Tshuag-kev ua lag luam benchmarks, thev naus laus zis-hnyav Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
tau nce 0.1% nyob rau hnub Tuesday tav su kev lag luam thaum Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
poob 1.1%, raws li FactSet cov ntaub ntawv, thaum kawg kos.
"Peb kwv yees tias 28% ntawm S&P 500 tus nqi tam sim no yog nyob ntawm kev nce nyiaj tau los yav tom ntej, uas yog nyob rau hauv txoj kab nrog rau qhov nruab nrab ntev ntev," Citi cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau hais. "Peb xav tias cov nyiaj tau los yuav muaj zog dua li kev ntshai."
Thaum Citi lub hom phiaj xyoo kawg ntawm 4,000 rau S&P 500 yog qis dua qhov kev cia siab ntawm tus kws tshaj lij, nws qhov kev kwv yees rau qhov ntsuas kom pom cov nyiaj tau los ntawm ib feem ntawm $ 216 yog "siab dua cov phooj ywg," lawv sau. "hais txawv, peb cia siab tias yuav muaj kev lag luam ntau ze rau 18x ntawm lub xyoo kawg piv rau lwm tus nyob ib ncig ntawm 20x."
Tsis tas li ntawd saib: 'Ib xyoos ntawm ob nrab': Stifel's Barry Bannister cia siab tias yuav muaj kev sib tw ze rau hauv Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam - thiab teeb meem tom qab xyoo 2023
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-rally-looks-unsustainable-as-sp-500-enters-new-lower-valuation-regime-warns-citi-11673980230?siteid=yhoof2&yptr= yahoo