S&P 500 tab tom mus txog theem tseem ceeb los saib dhau nws 2022 qis, raws li cov tub ua lag luam xav tias yuav muaj kev poob haujlwm tsis txaus ntseeg thaum muaj kev ntshai kev poob nyiaj txiag thiab kev xav tsis thoob hauv Asmeskas kev lag luam, raws li RBC Capital Markets ceeb toom.
Lori Calvasina, tus thawj coj ntawm US cov tswv yim kev ncaj ncees ntawm RBC tau hais tias "Peb xav tias cov khoom lag luam nyob rau ntawm qhov kev sim tseem ceeb," said Lori Calvasina, tus thawj coj ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev ncaj ncees ntawm RBC, hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb hnub Sunday. "Thaum lub Rau Hli qis tam sim no zoo li tsis zoo li tuav, yog tias S&P 500
SPX,
ntsib nws qhov kev poob qis ntawm 27%, qhov ntsuas yuav poob rau 3,501. "
Hauv Calvasina qhov kev xav, qib 3,500 yog qhov tseem ceeb raws li nws yog "qhov taw qhia ntawm qhov kev lag luam nruab nrab yuav raug nqi," tej zaum kos duab hauv qee cov tub ua lag luam los yuav qhov poob. Qhov ntawd yog vim tias nyob rau theem ntawd, raws li RBC qhov "kev pom zoo hauv qab" cov nyiaj khwv tau los ntawm ib qho kev kwv yees ntawm $ 212 rau 2023, qhov ntsuas tus nqi rau cov nyiaj tau los yuav poob qis dua qhov nruab nrab yog tias nws ntaus 3,561, raws li Calvasina.
Nws tau hais tias "Qhov ntawd yuav qhib qhov rooj rau cov neeg yos hav zoov, txawm tias qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev txav mus los siab dua - tsis yog lub sijhawm nruab nrab - lees paub yog qhov nyuaj rau txheeb xyuas," nws hais.
Nrog rau Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve aggressively nce cov paj laum nyob rau hauv ib qho kev mob siab rau tame stubbornly siab inflation, cov tub ua lag luam tau tsom mus rau dab tsi "siab dua-rau-ntev tus nqi" yuav txhais tau rau. stock-market valuations, raws li RBC.
RBC cia siab tias S&P 500 yuav xaus rau lub xyoo nrog tus nqi-rau-nyiaj tau ntau yam ntawm 16.35x, raws li 2022 kev cia siab rau kev nce nqi thiab tsoomfwv cov nyiaj tau los ntawm Fed's Cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev kwv yees nyiaj txiag tso tawm tom qab nws txoj cai rooj sib tham lub lim tiam dhau los. Qhov kev suav ntawd kuj tseem ceeb hauv 3.4% cov txiaj ntsig ntawm 10-xyoo Treasury daim ntawv, uas xav tias tus nqi tam sim no yuav nqis me ntsis vim kev txhawj xeeb txog kev lag luam, raws li daim ntawv ceeb toom.
Nyeem: Fed yuav sim zam 'qhov mob tob tob' rau Asmeskas kev lag luam, Bostic hais
"Tus qauv cia siab tias P / E ntawm 16.35x rau 57% kev sib cog lus los ntawm kev sib kis loj ntawm 37.8x - ze rau qhov kev cog lus uas tau pom hauv xyoo 1970 thiab tom qab Tech npuas," Calvasina tau sau. "Yog tias S&P 500 tau pauv ntawm 16.35x ntawm peb 2022 EPS kev kwv yees ntawm $ 218, qhov ntsuas yuav poob rau 3,564."
Thiab S&P 500 tus nqi-rau-cov nyiaj khwv tau los ntawm ib ncig ntawm 16 yog "tsim nyog," raws li kev txheeb xyuas ntawm ntau qhov piv rau tus nqi thiab kev nce nqi rov qab mus rau xyoo 1970 thiab cov kev xav tam sim no ntawm cov cheeb tsam, raws li RBC.
Lub caij no, kev xav ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam yog "qhov qis kawg ntawm nws cov keeb kwm ntau," said Calvasina. Nws tau taw qhia txog qhov sib npaug sib npaug ntawm qhov sib npaug ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los ntawm nws qib siab tshaj plaws txij li muaj kev sib kis thaum mus txog lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2018 qhov siab.
Muab cov ntawv cog lus xaiv muab txoj cai rau cov tub ua lag luam, tab sis tsis yog lub luag haujlwm, muag cov khoom ntawm tus nqi pom zoo hauv lub sijhawm teev tseg. Vim li ntawd, lawv kuj qhia txog kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam Tshuag. Hu rau cov kev xaiv, uas muab txoj cai rau cov tub ua lag luam los yuav ib qho kev ruaj ntseg ntawm tus nqi teev nyob rau hauv ib lub sij hawm, teeb liab pom bullish.
RBC CAPITAL MARKETS CEEB TOOM NTAWM SEPT. Peb 25, 2022
Tom qab qhov sib piv sib piv tau nce siab tshaj 0.75, qhov nruab nrab nce rau S&P 500 nyob rau peb lub hlis tom ntej yog 3.9% raws li cov ntaub ntawv txij li xyoo 1997, raws li daim ntawv ceeb toom. Qhov nruab nrab nce mus rau 7.8% hauv yim lub hlis tom qab qib ntawd, thiab nce mus rau 11.3% hauv 12 lub hlis tom ntej tom qab nce siab tshaj 0.75, daim ntawv qhia qhia.
RBC CAPITAL MARKETS CEEB TOOM NTAWM SEPT. Peb 25, 2022
Lub S&P 500, uas tau poob 22.5% xyoo no txog rau hnub Friday, thiab tau ua lag luam 1.1% qis dua hnub Monday tav su ntawm txog 3,654, raws li FactSet cov ntaub ntawv, thaum kawg kos. Qhov ntawd yog me ntsis hauv qab qhov ntsuas tau kaw qis xyoo no ntawm 3666.77 thaum Lub Rau Hli 16.
Kev lag luam hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas tau poob rau hnub Monday yav tav su, txuas ntxiv kev poob rau lub lim tiam dhau los raws li Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag tau nce ntxiv tom qab qhov txiaj ntsig ntawm Fed txoj cai rooj sib tham lub lim tiam dhau los. Lub 10-xyoo Treasury yield
TUBMUSD 10Y,
dhia txog 20 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus rau ib ncig ntawm 3.89% nyob rau hnub Monday tav su kev lag luam, FactSet cov ntaub ntawv qhia, thaum kawg kos.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-on-cusp-of-important-test-watch-this-sp-500-level-if-2022-low-gives-way-says- rbc-11664215654?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo