Nrog rau US Tshuag lag luam nyob rau hauv txoj kev rau nws qhov loj tshaj txhua xyoo poob nyob rau hauv ntau tshaj kaum xyoo, ntshai tias kev siv zog los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve thiab lwm lub tuam txhab loj hauv nruab nrab los ua kom muaj kev nce nqi nce nqi yuav ua rau muaj kev lag luam loj poob qis tau txav mus rau pem hauv ntej thiab nruab nrab raws li daim ntawv qhia hnub. mus rau 2023.
Nov yog peb qhov xwm txheej kev lag luam poob qis rau kev lag luam qeeb thiab muaj peev xwm ua lag luam tshwm sim:
Ib skev poob qis thiab luv luv
Ntau tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xav tias kev lag luam muaj peev xwm txaus kom loj hlob qeeb tsawg kawg ntawm thawj ib nrab xyoo 2023.
"Yuav kom paub tseeb tias qhov kev lag luam loj yuav poob qis rau cov khoom lag luam tseem tau muab qhov kev tiv thaiv ntawm Asmeskas kev lag luam thiab kev ua lag luam nruj, peb cia siab tias yuav muaj kev poob qis lossis qis qis thiab luv luv," said Nancy Tengler, CEO thiab tus thawj coj peev ntawm Laffer Tengler. Kev nqis peev. "Qhov ntawd tuaj yeem tso cai rau cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem sib sau ua ke hauv ib nrab xyoo 2023 (tom qab Q1 tsis zoo) thaum lawv saib ib ncig ntawm lub ces kaum kev lag luam."
Tengler tau hais tias qhov kev pom zoo ntawm kev ua lag luam tam sim no yog qhov tsis zoo heev vim tias cov neeg siv khoom tseem muaj bandwidth thiab kev siv nyiaj yuav tuav tau zoo dua li cov naysayers kwv yees hauv kev ua lag luam nruj.
Cov tswv haujlwm Asmeskas ntiav cov neeg ua haujlwm ntau dua li qhov xav tau hauv lub Kaum Ib Hlis thiab nce nyiaj ua haujlwm, shrugging tawm feem ntau kev txhawj xeeb txog kev poob nyiaj txiag. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm txoj haujlwm Lub Kaum Ib Hlis tau qhia tias kev lag luam tau nce 263,000 txoj haujlwm nyob rau lub hli dhau los, ua rau Wall Street qhov kev cia siab, nrog rau cov nyiaj poob haujlwm tuav ruaj khov ntawm 3.7%, tseem nyob ze rau ib nrab xyoo pua qis.
Txawm li cas los xij, txoj haujlwm kev loj hlob yuav tsum qeeb hauv 2023 raws li cov paj laum siab dua crimp peev thiab ntau cov lag luam tau rov qab los ntawm lawv lub taub hau prepandemic suav, tab sis raws li Julia Pollak, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm ZipRecruiter, hom "txias" nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam ua lag luam yuav. yuav tsum nyob deb ntawm recessionary.
cov Congressional Budget OfficeQhov kev kwv yees qhia tau hais tias tus naj npawb ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm Asmeskas yuav nce los ntawm 158 lab hauv 2022 mus rau 174 lab hauv 2052. Pollak tau hais tias kev lag luam yuav tsum "nyuaj nrog cov neeg ua haujlwm tsawg dua hauv xyoo tom ntej." Cov kev kwv yees no qhia txog kev nce nyiaj tau los ntawm tsuas yog 45,000 txoj haujlwm hauv ib hlis ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm 30 xyoo tom ntej, tsis muaj kev nce hauv Asmeskas cov pej xeem.
Mark Luschini, tus thawj tswj hwm kev nqis peev ntawm Janney Montgomery Scott, xav tias lub khw lag luam yuav qis dua ua ntej ntawm qhov pib ntawm kev lag luam, nrog rau kev cia siab ntawm "kev rov qab los" ntawm lwm sab ntawm nws.
"Peb cia siab tias cov khoom lag luam yuav tawm tsam thiab txuas ntxiv nyob rau hauv lub hlis tom ntej lossis ib lub hlis twg lossis ob, ua ntej thaum kawg tsim kom muaj kev vam meej ntxiv, tej zaum nyob rau ib nrab xyoo tom ntej," Luschini hais rau MarketWatch hauv xov tooj.
Nws suav hais tias kev lag luam tsis muaj zog rau "cov ntawv txheeb xyuas kev noj qab haus huv" ntawm tib neeg thiab tsev neeg, uas tau khaws "ntau nyiaj khaws cia" thaum muaj kev sib kis.
Saib: Puas tau 2022 rhuav Wall Street's 'kev ntshai gauge' ib? Vim li cas VIX tsis qhia txog qhov kev thov txim ntawm lub khw lag luam
A«swamp" kev poob qis
Txawm hais tias qee tus kws tshaj lij xav tias kev lag luam poob qis hauv 2023 yuav mob me me thiab luv luv, thiab yuav ua raws li kev lag luam rov qab muaj zog, ib tus kws tshaj lij JP Morgan tau hais tias kev lag luam yuav tawm tsam kom tawm ntawm nws.
David Kelly, tus thawj coj thoob ntiaj teb tus kws tshaj lij ntawm JP Morgan Asset Management, tau sib cav tias tsis yog poob ntawm "kev lag luam pob tsuas," xws li kev lag luam yuav zoo li zawv zawg mus rau "kev lag luam swamp," txhais tau tias nws yuav nyuaj rau kev lag luam tawm mus. ntawm nws.
Cov xov xwm zoo yog tias lub sijhawm ntev ntawm kev lag luam swampiness yuav tsum tshem tawm kev nce nqi thiab yuam kom Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve thim rov qab ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm lawv 2022 nyiaj txiag nruj, sau Kelly hauv ib daim ntawv nov.
"Txawm li cas los xij, sab ntxeev yog tias qhov kev lag luam me me yuav tsis tsim kev xav tau ntau ntxiv thiab, piv txwv tias peb pom tsuas yog nce qis hauv kev poob haujlwm, kev ua haujlwm thiab cov nyiaj tau los txhawb los ntawm kev poob haujlwm yuav tsawg dua li qub, ”nws hais. "Tej zaum qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws, piv rau txhua qhov ntawm plaub qhov kev poob qis kawg, tsis zoo li yuav muaj kev txhawb nqa nyiaj txiag tseem ceeb los txhawb kev lag luam rov qab."
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Wall Street tau ceeb toom cov tub ua lag luam lag luam tias lawv yuav tsum tsis txhob cia siab tias yuav muaj "Fed tso" rau xyoo tom ntej.
Tsis muaj kev lag luam lossis kev lag luam me me
Cov kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag ntawm Goldman Sachs tau nce ob npaug ntawm lawv qhov kev hu xov tooj tias Asmeskas kev lag luam tej zaum yuav ua tiav qhov chaw mos, txhais tau hais tias lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tuaj yeem tswj hwm kev nce nqi yam tsis muaj kev lag luam loj hlob. Lawv kuj cia siab tias kev lag luam yuav nqaim kom tsis txhob muaj kev lag luam poob qis vim kev nce nyiaj poob qis thiab kev poob haujlwm nce me ntsis.
"Peb cov kws tshawb fawb txog nyiaj txiag hais tias muaj 35% qhov tshwm sim uas Asmeskas cov lus qhia rau kev lag luam poob rau xyoo tom ntej, kev kwv yees uas qis dua qhov nruab nrab ntawm 65% ntawm cov kwv yees hauv Wall Street Journal daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas," said Goldman Sachs 'economists hauv lawv. 2023 kev xav. "Tebchaws Asmeskas tuaj yeem zam kev poob qis hauv ib feem vim tias cov ntaub ntawv ntawm kev lag luam tsis muaj nyob ze rau kev lag luam poob qis."
Tom qab ob peb lub hlis twg sib law liag ntawm qhov tsis zoo tag nrho cov khoom lag luam hauv tebchaws (GDP) kev loj hlob thaum ntxov 2022, Asmeskas kev lag luam nthuav dav hauv lub quarter thib peb, loj hlob ntawm ib xyoos ib zaug 2.9% pace, tsoomfwv cov ntaub ntawv qhia.
Lub quarter sib law liag ntawm kev cog lus GDP feem ntau tau piav qhia tias yog "kev lag luam kev lag luam," txawm hais tias National Bureau of Economic Research, uas ua haujlwm raws li kev txiav txim siab ntawm kev lag luam, muaj ntau lub ntsiab lus dav dav ntawm kev lag luam.
Saib: Tsib hnub ua lag luam no suav txog ze li tag nrho ntawm S&P 500 qhov poob hauv 2022
Cov khoom lag luam Asmeskas tau nyob rau hnub Friday kom tiav lub xyoo tsis deb ntawm lawv cov 2022 qis hauv qhov uas tau teeb tsa ua xyoo phem tshaj txij li xyoo 2008.
Lub S&P 500
SPX,
tau nqis 19.2% xyoo rau hnub tim raws li hnub Thursday kaw, hnub thib ob-rau-kawg trading hnub ntawm lub xyoo. Lub caij no, Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
poob 8.6%, thaum Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
poob 33% txog rau tam sim no xyoo no.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-ask-how-severe-will-aus-recession-be-and-how-long-will-it-last-in-2023-11672353107? siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo