Kev Lag Luam Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam 'Zoo dua li puas tau' Raws li Fed Signals Nws tuaj yeem ua kom nruj kom txog thaum kev lag luam poob qis

Tojsiab

Fed cov tub ceev xwm rau hnub Thursday tau rov hais dua rau txoj cai nruj los tawm tsam cov nyiaj txiag tsis txaus siab - ua rau muaj kev cia siab rau kev nce nqi loj dua thaum lub khw muag khoom muag muag uas tau pom cov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb tau poob qis tshiab rau lub xyoo - thiab qee cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas qhov kev poob qis tuaj yeem tob zuj zus.

Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb

Cov paj laum tiag tiag, uas tseem nyob tsis zoo Txij li thaum Lub Xya Hli 2020, "yuav tsum nyob hauv thaj chaw zoo thiab nyob ntawd rau ib lub sijhawm," Cleveland Fed tus thawj tswj hwm Loretta Mester hais rau CNBC thaum sawv ntxov hnub Thursday, yws yws tias kev nce nqi tseem siab dhau thiab ceeb toom Fed tseem muaj chaw nce nqi ntxiv: "Peb' rov tseem tsis tau nyob hauv thaj chaw txwv ntawm cov nyiaj tau los. "

Hauv kev hais lus rau hnub Thursday, St. Louis Fed tus thawj tswj hwm James Bullard tau tshaj tawm qhov kev hu xov tooj zoo sib xws, hais tias nws "zoo li" Fed tau cia siab tias yuav muaj "tus nqi ncaj ncees ntawm kev hloov pauv ntxiv rau xyoo no" los ua "lub ntsiab lus" poob qis rau kev nce nqi.

Kev cia siab rau kev nce nqi nce siab ntawm cov lus pom, nrog kev lag luam rau hnub Thursday tus nqi hauv qhov kawg ntawm lub xyoo ntawm 4.5% - siab dua 4.4% tus nqi Fed cov neeg ua haujlwm kwv yees ua ntej lub hlis no, uas nws tus kheej yog ib feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus siab dua li kev kwv yees nyob rau lub Rau Hli.

"Qhov kev ntxhov siab tau rov qab los, thiab nws tseem phem dua li yav dhau los," tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Adam Crisafulli ntawm Vital Knowledge Media tau hais hauv tsab ntawv sau tseg. plunged Hnub Thursday, ntxiv tias kev lag luam tuaj yeem thim rov qab dua li lawv tau ua ua ntej lub lim tiam no tab sis hais tias S&P yuav tawm tsam kom nce siab dua 3,900 (7% saum toj no theem) kom txog rau thaum Fed qhov kev kwv yees - uas cuam tshuam txog kev nce nqi nqis los - txhim kho.

Hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom, Morgan Stanley tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas Michael Wilson tau hais tias lub tuam txhab tseem "txhais tau" tias S&P yuav ua rau qis qis ntawm 3,000 txog 3,400 cov ntsiab lus tom qab xyoo no lossis ntxov tom ntej, qhia tias nws tseem tuaj yeem poob ntxiv 7% mus rau 18%.

Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Goldman Sachs thiab Bank of America yog me ntsis qis qis, kev ua haujlwm tias S&P tsuas yog poob mus txog 3,600 (raws li cov theem tam sim no), txawm hais tias Goldman kuj tau sau tseg tias qhov ntsuas yuav poob rau 3,150 yog tias kev lag luam poob rau hauv kev lag luam poob qis.

Kev Nkag Siab Hais

Bill Adams, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Comerica Bank hais tias "Fed tau qhia tias lawv cia siab tias yuav nruj txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag txaus kom ua rau muaj kev poob qis," Nws sau tseg cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam tshaj tawm hnub Thursday tau txhawb nqa qhov yuav tshwm sim ntawm 75-piv-tus nqi nce ntxiv ntawm Fed lub Kaum Ib Hlis lub rooj sib tham. Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam tau pom tias kev lag luam loj hlob 1.5% ntau dua txij li thaum pib kev lag luam poob qis dua li yav dhau los paub, thiab cov neeg thov nyiaj poob haujlwm poob poob poob poob rau lub lim tiam dhau los.

Dab Tsi Los Saib

Goldman economists project Fed yuav nce tus nqi los ntawm lwm 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis, 50 cov ntsiab lus hauv lub Kaum Ob Hlis thiab 25 Lub Ob Hlis. Txawm li cas los xij, cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag nce nqi rau hnub Friday thiab kev ua lag luam kev lag luam tso tawm rau lub lim tiam tom ntej tuaj yeem thawb qhov kev pom zoo-dua.

Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb

Cov khoom lag luam tau poob qis txij li lub Yim Hli thaum Fed cov tub ceev xwm tau taw qhia hauv cov lus sib tham hais tias lawv yuav tsum tau ua kom nruj dua txhawm rau txhawm rau txhawm rau nce nyiaj txiag. Lub S&P tau poob 24% xyoo no, thiab Nasdaq tau cratered 312. Nyob rau hauv ib tsab ntawv rau cov neeg siv khoom, Keith Lerner, tus thawj coj lag luam tawm tswv yim ntawm Truist Advisory Services, tau hais tias Fed yuav zoo li yuav khaws cov paj laum ntev dua txhawm rau txhawm rau txo qhov nyiaj nce ntxiv. Cov kev sib tw uas tau nyob ntev dua ib xyoos - "txawm tias nws yuav tsum muaj kev mob nyiaj txiag ntau dua," raws li cov tub ceev xwm tau nce ntxiv ceeb toom txij li lub hli tas los.

ntxiv nyeem ntawv

Dow poob 500 cov ntsiab lus, Kev lag luam poob tom qab Flurry ntawm cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag txaus ntshai (Forbes)

Technical Recession Confirmed: Economy Shrank 0.6% Lub Peb Hlis Ntuj Kawg, Kev Tshaj Tawm Kawg GDP (Forbes)