Cov khoom lag luam hlau tau rov zoo siab txij li thaum Lub Xya Hli, txawm hais tias muaj kev tsis sib haum xeeb rau kev lag luam steel tag nrho. Steelmakers coj los ntawm Neeg Muaj Cuab Yeej (NUE), Kev Lag Luam Hlau Hlau (CMC) thiab Steel Ua Yeeb Yam (STLD) tau tsim cov qauv tsim qauv nrog cov ntsiab lus yuav khoom siv tau. Qhov kev rov qab los tau tsawg dua rau lwm tus, suav nrog Teb Chaws Asmeskas Cov Hlau (X) thiab Cleveland-Cliff (CLF). Tab sis kev hloov pauv hauv cov khoom lag luam no kuj tau tsim cov qauv kev ua haujlwm.
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Cov thawj coj ntawm kev lag luam steel los ntawm kev ua tau zoo hauv peb lub hlis twg tau muaj kev txhawb siab rau ob qho tib si cov khoom xav tau thiab kev lag luam pom nyob rau lub asthiv tsis ntev los no. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas, ntawm qhov tod tes, ntsuas kev ua lag luam raws li cov khoom siv ntau dhau, qhia txog tus nqi qis heev. Cov nqi hlau poob rau rau lub lis piam ncaj mus txog thaum lub Yim Hli. Txawm hais tias cov kev txhawj xeeb no, cov tub ua lag luam tau dhia mus rau hauv cov khoom lag luam steel, nqa cov khoom lag luam kom tiav cov hauv paus siv tau.
Steel Market Oversupply?
Thaum Steel Dynamics tshaj tawm nws cov txiaj ntsig thib ob hauv lub Xya Hli 20, CEO Mark Millett tau sau tseg txoj hauv kev loj hlob hauv kev lag luam steel tam sim no.
Millett tau hais tias "Cov neeg siv khoom xaj kev nkag mus ua haujlwm tseem muaj kev noj qab haus huv thoob plaws tag nrho peb cov lag luam, tsis sib haum xeeb nrog kev xav tsis zoo hauv khw," Millett tau hais. "Peb ntseeg tias muaj cov tsav tsheb muaj zog rau peb txoj kev loj hlob ntxiv."
Txawm li cas los xij, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas khoom zoo li tsis ntseeg.
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam KeyBanc Capital Markets tau sau rau Lub Yim Hli 23, tias Asmeskas cov khw muag khoom hlau tseem tshuav ntau dhau, tom qab kev tsim tawm los ntawm Covid-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau sau tseg tias Asmeskas cov hlau tsim tau txo qis 5% xyoo dhau los hauv lub Xya Hli. Ntiaj teb no crude steel ntau lawm kuj poob 6% nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj piv rau lub rau hli ntuj. Thiab qhov kev poob qis tsis yog nyob rau hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas Tuam Tshoj cov hlau tsim tau poob 10% ib hlis dhau ib hlis hauv Lub Xya Hli, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau sau.
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Tab sis txawm tias nrog kev txo qis, kev thov tseem tsis muaj zog los ua kom cov khoom lag luam khaws cia.
Phil Gibbs tus kws tshuaj ntsuam KeyBanc Capital Markets tau hais hauv kev xam phaj. "Zoo li muaj huab cua tawm qhov ntawd uas koj tau txais kev poob qis thiab txhua yam no yuav ua rau kev lag luam poob qis."
Gibbs hais ntxiv tias cov tuam txhab kev xav feem ntau txawv ntawm cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev lag luam. Cov lag luam feem ntau pib pom ntawm kev txiav txim khiav, txawm tias qhov kev txiav txim tsis nce lawv cov backlog.
"Kuv tsis tuaj yeem hais lus rau lwm qhov ntawm kev lag luam, tab sis peb tsis yog - peb tsis tau pom ib qho kev hloov pauv loj hauv cov kev xav tau. Kev txiav txim ua haujlwm tau tseem muaj zog heev, "Millett hais rau cov tub ua lag luam thaum hu xov tooj.
Rau Gibbs, "tam sim no, dhau ntawm peb phau ntawv xaj, peb tsis pom nws," nws hais.
Covid-19: Steel Supply Shortage Thiab Rebound
Covid-19 kev kis thoob ntiaj teb tau cuam tshuam cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb hauv ntau qhov kev lag luam, suav nrog hlau. Raws li ntau lub ntiaj teb slogged los ntawm kev kub ntxhov, kev thov rau steel poob. Steel xav tau pib tuaj txog thaum kawg ntawm 2020.
Xyoo 2021, Asmeskas cov nqi hlau tau nce siab rau txhua lub sijhawm, nce siab tshaj $ 1,900 ib tuj luv nyob rau lub Yim Hli 2021. Cov nqi poob rau hauv lub siab thaum ntxov xyoo no, tom qab ntawd tau nce mus txog $ 8 rau ib qho luv luv ntawm kub dov coil (HRC) hauv lub Plaub Hlis. tom qab Russia invaded Ukraine. Ua ntej muaj kev sib kis, HRC tus nqi tau khiav ze li $ 1,500 ib tuj.
Hnub Friday, tus qauv ntsuas HRC steel yav tom ntej tau nyob ib puag ncig $ 793 ib tuj luv. Steel rebar yav tom ntej trading nyob ib ncig ntawm $596 ib tuj.
Hnub Wednesday, Cleveland-Cliffs tshaj tawm tias nws tau nce qhov chaw lag luam tam sim no tus nqi los ntawm qhov tsawg kawg nkaus ntawm $ 75 ib tuj rau ntau yam khoom siv hlau sib txawv. CLF tau hais tias qhov kev nce no yuav muaj txiaj ntsig tam sim rau kev txiav txim tshiab hauv North America.
Txawm hais tias Cleveland-Cliffs nce, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tseem muaj kev poob qis ntawm tus nqi zog.
"Peb qhov kev xav yog tias cov nqi yuav poob mus ntxiv rau lub hlis tom ntej vim qhov kev thov tsis sib npaug, lub peev xwm tshiab pib thiab cov nqi poob qis," sau Carlos De Alba, Morgan Stanley steel cov khoom lag luam kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas, hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom Lub Yim Hli 8 ntawm HRC tus nqi.
Gibbs, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam KeyBanc, kuj pom kev lag luam tus nqi raws li kev ntxhov siab. Nws tau hais tias muaj "daws loj" hauv tus nqi rau ntau cov khoom lag luam steel xyoo no, nws hais tias, uas yuav cuam tshuam rau ib nrab xyoo 2022.
Gibbs tau hais tias "Nws tuaj yeem ua kom ruaj khov thiab thaws, tab sis kuv tsis xav tias nws yuav kav ntev vim tias tag nrho cov khoom siv nyob rau sab nraud tos kom tso tawm ntawm ib qho kev kos npe ntawm kev tuaj tos hauv tus nqi lossis kev thov," Gibbs tau hais.
Steel Stocks Tsev Yuav Cov Ntsiab Lus
Nucor, Steel Dynamics thiab Lub Tuam Txhab Ua Lag Luam Hlau yog tag nrho cov khoom lag luam hlau uas tau tsim cov hauv paus siv tau tsis ntev los no. Steel Dynamics tau teev nyob rau hauv ob qho tib si IB Leaderboard thiab IB SwingTrader hwm cov kev pab cuam.
Lwm cov khoom lag luam nrog steel raug teeb tsa suav nrog Paul Singer-rov qab Howmet Aerospace (HWM), nrog ATI (ATI). Ob lub tuam txhab engineers tshwj xeeb steel alloy Cheebtsam rau aerospace thiab lwm yam kev lag luam.
Kev Lag Luam Hauv Kev Hloov Pauv
Amid lub tangled mov chains thiab kev lag luam contortions tshwm sim los ntawm Russia tsov rog nyob rau hauv Ukraine, steel manufacturing yog nyob rau hauv nruab nrab ntawm ib tug loj heev kev hloov. Cov tuam txhab hluas, coj los ntawm Nucor thiab Steel Dynamics, tau loj hlob nyob ib puag ncig hluav taws xob arc rauv (EAF) kev tsim khoom. Lwm cov thawj coj hauv kev lag luam, suav nrog Tebchaws Meskas Steel, tso siab rau cov tsoos blast furnace mills.
Cleveland Cliffs yog ib qho kev lag luam miner thiab steel xa khoom ntawm hlau ore. Nws tau txav mus rau hauv cov tsoos blast furnace steel tsim hauv xyoo 2020, tau txais AK Steel thiab Asmeskas kev ua haujlwm ntawm Luxembourg-based steel loj. Arcelor-Mittal (MT).
Lub tshuab hluav taws xob arc rauv, raws li nws lub npe qhia, khiav tawm hluav taws xob ua nws lub hauv paus ntawm lub zog. Cov hlau nplaum yog cov khoom siv tseem ceeb. Kev lag luam hluav taws xob arc rauv steel tam sim no ua rau ntau dua 70% ntawm cov hlau tsim hauv Asmeskas, raws li Lub Koom Haum Steel Manufactures Association. Txawm li cas los xij, thoob plaws ntiaj teb, tsoos blast furnace steel manufacturing tseem ua tau li ntawm 70% ntawm kev ua lag luam.
Cov txheej txheem hluav taws xob arc rauv muab cov tuam txhab txo tus nqi pib thiab siv sijhawm tsawg dua los tsim cov khoom lag luam. Nws kuj tseem yooj yim dua los tswj qhov kub thiab txias hauv qhov system thiab tso tawm 75% tsawg dua lub tsev cog khoom gasses piv rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tawg, raws li kev tshawb fawb ntawm Steel Manufacturers Association.
Cov khoom siv raw hauv qhov cub tawg yog cov hlau ore thiab coking thee, uas ua rau qhov kub siab xav tau rau cov txheej txheem. Kev lag luam tshaj tawm tias qhov no tuaj yeem tsim cov hlau zoo dua, tab sis nws tso tawm cov pa roj carbon dioxide ntau ntxiv.
Steel Tshuag: Steel Dynamics
Steel Dynamics saum toj kawg nkaus 86.04 muas point nyob rau hauv ib tug khob nrog kov puag rau hnub Thursday. Shares tuav saum toj no nkag rau hnub Monday, txawm tias ib qho kev lag luam poob tag nrho. Qhov kev yuav khoom txuas ntxiv mus txog $ 90.34. Cov Tshuag rau hnub Monday tau nce 0.4%, mus rau saum 87.
Fort Wayne, Indiana-based tuam txhab yog ib qho ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom loj tshaj plaws ntawm cov khoom siv hlau hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas Nws koom nrog kev ua haujlwm hlau rov ua dua tshiab nrog rau kev tsim steel thiab tsim ntau yam khoom hlau. STLD qhov kev lag luam peev tsis ntev los no tau txav mus rau sab qaum teb ntawm $ 16 nphom kev lag luam, yog li nws nkag mus rau thaj chaw uas nyiam nyiam kev nqis peev ntau los ntawm cov peev nyiaj loj.
Yuav Ua Li Cas Millett Loj Hlob Steel Dynamics Los Ntawm Peb Tus Neeg Ua Haujlwm Ua Lag Luam
Steel Dynamics tau tshaj tawm cov nyiaj tau los kwv yees hauv lub quarter thib ob. Cov nyiaj tau los tau nce 98% rau $ 6.73 ib feem ntawm kev muag khoom thaum muag nce 55% rau $ 6.2 nphom. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam kwv yees lub quarter thib peb EPS nce 2% rau $ 5.08. Cov nyiaj tau los yog kwv yees nce 10% mus rau $ 5.6 billion, raws li FactSet.
Steel Dynamics yog hnub Wednesday IBD Tshuag Ntawm Hnub, raws li nws flashed ib tug ntxov nkag thiab flirting nrog ib tug official breakout. STLD Tshuag tau koom nrog IB Leaderboard thiab SwingTrader cov ntaub ntawv.
Cov Tshuag ranks thawj nyob rau hauv lub Steel-Producers pawg kev lag luam. STLD Tshuag muaj 96 Puas Ntsuam Xyuas tawm ntawm 99. Nws muaj 90 txheeb ze lub zog ntsuas, ib qho tshwj xeeb IBD Stock Checkup Kev ntsuas rau kev sib koom-tus nqi txav uas siab tshaj ntawm 99. Qhov kev ntsuam xyuas qhia tau hais tias yuav ua li cas cov khoom lag luam kev ua tau zoo nyob rau 52 lub lis piam dhau los tuav tawm tsam tag nrho lwm cov khoom lag luam hauv IBD cov ntaub ntawv. Qhov ntsuas EPS yog 98.
Nucor Tshuag
Nucor tab tom ua haujlwm ntawm lub khob-nrog-kov puag nrog 146 qhov yuav khoom, raws li MarketSmith. Cov khoom lag luam tau txav siab tshaj nws 50-hnub thiab 200-hnub kab nyob rau lub Xya Hli 26 ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm qhov nruab nrab. Shares tau nce 0.6%, 141.31, hnub Monday.
Lub Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor tau ua cov hlau loj tshaj plaws thiab cov khoom lag luam hlau tsim nyob hauv Asmeskas tau ntau xyoo, nrog US Steel khiav tom qab nws ntawm cov npe ntawd. Nucor ua haujlwm nyob ib ncig ntawm 20 steel mills thoob plaws lub tebchaws.
Lub tuam txhab tau tshaj tawm cov nyiaj khwv tau los thaum Lub Xya Hli 21 nrog cov ntaub ntawv cov txiaj ntsig. Cov nyiaj tau los tau nce 88% rau $ 9.67 ib feem ntawm lub quarter thib ob. Tag nrho cov muag khoom tau nce 34% rau $ 11.8 billion. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xav tias EPS puv xyoo yuav loj hlob 31% rau $ 30.28 thaum cov nyiaj tau los yuav tsum nce 16% mus rau $ 42.4 billion.
Lub tuam txhab pom zoo rau lub quarter thib peb hu rau qhov kev thov kom nyob twj ywm "ruaj khov thiab rov ua haujlwm." Nucor cia siab tias yuav txo qis los ntawm nws cov lej thib ob, tab sis tseem kwv yees xyoo 2022 "yuav yog xyoo muaj txiaj ntsig tshaj plaws hauv Nucor keeb kwm."
Nucor yog thib peb hauv Steel-Producers pab pawg kev lag luam, tom qab Steel Dynamics. Cov Tshuag muaj 92 Composite Rating. Nws muaj 89 txheeb ze lub zog ntsuas. Qhov ntsuas EPS yog 97.
Steel Stocks: Commercial Metals Company
CMC shares ntxiv 0.8% ua lag luam qis dua 43 hnub Monday. Lawv tau tsim ib ob chav hauv qab qauv nrog 42.99 yuav taw tes, raws li MarketSmith. Cov khoom lag luam tau txav siab tshaj nws 50-hnub thiab 200-hnub kab ntawm Lub Xya Hli 26 thaum nruab nrab ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntim. CMC tau nce ib ncig ntawm 50% siab dua nws 52-lub lim piam qis tau teeb tsa thaum Lub Xya Hli.
Lub tuam txhab Irving, Texas-based Commercial Metals tuam txhab koom nrog hauv kev tsim khoom, rov ua dua tshiab, thiab kev lag luam ntawm cov khoom siv hlau thiab hlau. Nws ua haujlwm hauv North America thiab Europe. Founded hauv 1915, nws cov chaw suav nrog yim hluav taws xob arc rauv mini mills.
CMC tau tshaj tawm cov nyiaj khwv tau los ntawm peb lub hlis twg thaum Lub Rau Hli 16. Cov nyiaj tau los tau nce 150% rau $ 2.61 ib feem. Kev muag khoom tau nce 39% rau $ 2.5 nphom. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam kwv yees EPS loj hlob 93% rau $ 2.44 hauv lub quarter thib plaub thaum kev muag khoom xav tias yuav nce 20% mus rau $ 2.4 billion.
Wall Street tau kwv yees cov nyiaj tau los puv xyoo kom nce 151% rau $ 8.86 ib feem. Cov nyiaj tau los puv xyoo tau kwv yees nce 33% rau $ 8.9 billion, raws li FactSet
Lub Tuam Txhab Lag Luam Metals yog thawj zaug hauv Hlau ua & Fabrication pawg kev lag luam. CMC Tshuag muaj 99 Composite Rating tawm ntawm 99. Nws muaj 92 txheeb txheeb Strength Rating. Qhov ntsuas EPS yog 99.
Thov ua raws li Kit Norton ntawm Twitter @KitNorton rau kev pab them nqi ntxiv.
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Tau qhov twg los: https://www.investors.com/news/steel-stocks-stand-solid-near-buy-points-as-market-retreats/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo