S&P/TSX index outlook as Canada yield curve inversion intensifies

S&P / TSX Performance index tau muag tawm hauv ob peb hnub dhau los thaum muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntxiv txog tus nqi khoom muag thiab kev noj qab haus huv ntawm Canada kev lag luam. Nws rov qab mus rau ntau lub lis piam qis ntawm C $ 19,980, uas tau qis dua xyoo no siab ntawm $ 20,847.

Rising luv-term daim ntawv cog lus yields

Qhov kev sib tw loj tshaj plaws rau cov TSX index yog qhov kev ua tau zoo tsis ntev los no ntawm Canada kev lag luam nyiaj txiag. Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias cov txiaj ntsig ntawm tsoomfwv daim ntawv cog lus ib xyoos tau dhia mus rau 4.70%. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, daim ntawv 1-lub hlis yog yielding 4.55% thaum 2-xyoo muaj cov txiaj ntsig ntawm 4.2%. Lub yield nkhaus tau pom meej inverted, nrog rau 10-xyoo thiab 30-xyoo yielding 3.3% thiab 3.2%, feem. 

Bond yields kuj tau hloov pauv hauv ntau lub tebchaws, qhia tias cov tub ua lag luam tau hnov ​​​​txog kev nyab xeeb ntawm lub xeev kev lag luam. Hauv Tebchaws Meskas, qhov kev hloov pauv hloov pauv tau poob mus rau qib qis tshaj txij li xyoo 1980s. Yog li ntawd, ntau tus tub ua lag luam hauv Asmeskas thiab Canada tau pib rov qab mus rau cov ntawv cog lus, uas tau muab cov txiaj ntsig zoo. 

TSX Performance index kuj tau thim rov qab vim qhov ua tau zoo ntawm qhov tseem ceeb khoom muag. Cov roj Crude, uas yog ib qho tseem ceeb hauv Canada, tau txav mus rau sab hauv ob peb lub hlis dhau los. Brent tau daig ntawm $ 83 thaum West Texas Intermediate (WTI) tseem nyob ntawm $ 77. 

Muaj cov cim qhia tias tus nqi khoom lag luam yuav rov qab los vim muaj kev lag luam Suav muaj zog. Cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm rau hnub Wednesday tau qhia tias lub teb chaws tsim PMI dhia hauv Lub Ob Hlis, qhia tias kev lag luam ua tau zoo. Qhov no tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev xav tau ntau dua rau kev lag luam hlau xws li nyiaj thiab tooj liab.

Ob peb TSX qhov ntsuas tau ua tau zoo xyoo no. Bausch Health yog qhov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws, tau dhia los ntawm 50%. Dundee Precious Metals, Methanex, Bombardier, thiab Algoma Steel Group. 

Ntawm qhov tod tes, cov neeg ua haujlwm phem tshaj plaws yog feem ntau hauv kev lag luam khoom lag luam. Thawj Majestic Silver shares tau poob los ntawm ntau dua 26% thaum Precision Drilling, Vermillion Zog, Trisura, thiab MAG Silver tau poob tag nrho los ntawm ntau dua 20%.

S&P/TSX index forecast

TSX chart by TradingView

Daim ntawv qhia txhua hnub qhia tau hais tias S&P / TSX Performance index tau rub rov qab ob peb hnub dhau los thiab tau zaum ze rau qhov qis tshaj plaws txij li Lub Ib Hlis 12. Raws li kuv tau sau hauv qhov no tsab xov xwm, qhov ntsuas tau tsim ib lub taub hau thiab lub xub pwg nyom inverted. Nws tau txav me ntsis hauv qab 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement qib.

Yog li ntawd, kuv xav tias qhov Performance index yuav nyob twj ywm nyob rau hauv ib tug consolidation theem nyob rau hauv lub tom ntej no hnub thiab tom qab ntawd rov pib lub bullish trend. Yog tias qhov no tshwm sim, nws tuaj yeem rov ntsuas qhov kev tawm tsam ntawm $ 20,625.