Yog li ntawd, nyob deb S&P 500 index tau ua tsis tiav los ncaws tawm lub khw muag nyuj tshiab ntawm kev ntshai ntawm kev lag luam looming.
Tseem, David Kostin - Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Kev Ncaj Ncees hauv Tebchaws Meskas ntawm Goldman Sachs tseem ntseeg hauv Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve thiab nws lub peev xwm los tsim kho qhov chaw mos hauv 2023.
Puas yog koj tab tom nrhiav kom tau cov xov xwm ceev, kub-cov lus qhia thiab kev tsom xam kev ua lag luam?
Sau npe rau Invezz cov ntawv xov xwm, hnub no.
Kostin qhov kev xav rau S&P 500
Kostin cia siab tias yuav muaj 1.0% kev loj hlob hauv US GDP xyoo tom ntej tab sis qhov ntawd, nws hais ntxiv, yuav tsis txaus los qhib qhov muaj txiaj ntsig zoo hauv qhov ntsuas ntsuas. Piav vim li cas ntawm CNBC's “Squawk ntawm Txoj Kev”, tus Strategist hais tias:
GDP kev loj hlob [yuav] ua rau muaj kev muag khoom me me tab sis lub tswv yim ntawm cov paj laum compressing yuav qhia tias tsis muaj nyiaj khwv tau los ntau, uas yog vim li cas kev lag luam yuav zoo li nyob hauv lub xyoo tom ntej.
Nws, yog li ntawd, pom zoo tias cov tub ua lag luam tseem ceeb tshaj qhov tseem ceeb muaj zog thaum kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse rau 2023.
Hauv particular, Kostin yog tsim rau “kev kho mob” thiab "cov neeg siv khoom noj khoom haus" vim qhov ntawd yog qhov ua haujlwm nyob rau lub sijhawm thaum kev nce nyiaj nce siab tab sis tab tom nqis los.
Yuav ua li cas yog hais tias muaj tseeb ib tug recession?
Interestingly, txawm li cas los, lub Goldman Sachs 'strategist tsis cia siab tias lub lag luam yuav ua rau ib tug tshiab qis txawm tias kev lag luam xaus nyob rau hauv ib tug. lub caij txom nyem.
Nyob nruab nrab ntawm 3,750 thiab 4,000 yog qhov uas nws cia siab tias qhov ntsuas yuav nyob rau xyoo tom ntej.
Yog tias koj muaj kev lag luam poob qis, cov nyiaj tau los tej zaum yuav poob los ntawm 11% xyoo tom ntej thiab qhov ntawd yuav qhia tias kev ua lag luam xaus rau lub xyoo ntawm 3,750. Yog li, kuv xav tias 4,000 txog 3,750 yog qhov ntau koj yuav pom nyob ze.
Txawm tias nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej phem tshaj plaws, Kostin pom tsuas yog downside rau 3,600 qib - tsuas yog siab dua lub Kaum Hlis qis. Hauv kev sib piv, S&P 500 Performance index yog tam sim no ua lag luam ntawm 3,930.
Source: https://invezz.com/news/2022/12/06/david-kostin-outlook-on-sp-500-for-2023/