Vanguard cov tub ua lag luam muaj npe nrov rau kev ua lag luam - thiab lees txais kev lag luam thiab S&P 500 cov nyiaj rov qab mus sij hawm ntev. Tab sis yog tias Vanguard qhov kev twv ua ntej yog lawm, cov khoom vaj khoom tsev yav tom ntej yuav tsis zoo li cov tub ua lag luam cia siab rau.
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Tsuas yog tso tawm 10-xyoo kev kwv yees los ntawm Vanguard qhia lub tuam txhab cov kev xav ntawm 18 cov khoom vaj khoom tsev loj, xws li US cov khoom lag luam mus rau nyiaj ntsuab. Thiab qee qhov kev rov qab los yog qhov tsis txaus siab vim lawv poob qis ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm keeb kwm.
Qhov scariest twv ua ntej ntawm lawv tag nrho? Piv txwv li, US cov khoom lag luam yuav nce 4.7% rau 6.7% ib xyoos ib zaug hauv 10 xyoo tom ntej, Vanguard hais. Qhov ntawd yog ib feem ntawm S&P 500's txhua xyoo 9.3% rov qab mus rau xyoo 1928.
Ntau ntawm Vanguard's dour forecast stems los ntawm nws nyob ze-tsim ib qho kev poob nyiaj txiag yuav tuaj txog xyoo 2023. "Peb tseem muab 90% qhov tshwm sim rau kev lag luam Asmeskas kev lag luam hauv xyoo 2023 thiab saib txoj hauv kev mus rau qhov chaw mos uas nqaim tshwj xeeb. Peb cia siab tias tsuas yog qhov kev loj hlob me me, nyob ib ncig ntawm 0.25%, rau tag nrho lub xyoo, "daim ntawv tshaj tawm hais tias.
Vanguard: Tus nqi Tshuag kom muaj kev vam meej
Yog tias koj tab tom tos S&P 500 cov khoom lag luam loj hlob kom dhau tus nqi dua, koj yuav xav rov xav dua, Vanguard hais.
Kev loj hlob ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam tsuas yog nce qhov tsis txaus ntseeg 3.1% rau 5.1% ib xyoos ib zaug hauv 10 xyoo tom ntej, Vanguard hais. Qhov ntawd yog qhov zoo hauv qab 4.7% mus rau 6.7% txhua xyoo rov qab los ntawm US cov khoom muaj nqis.
Thiab yog tias koj xav tias koj yuav tau txais lub pob loj nrog cov khoom me me, Vanguard hais tias koj tau ua yuam kev nyob rau ntawd, thiab. Tebchaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam me me tsuas yog rov qab los ntawm 5.0% thiab 7.0% txhua xyoo, Vanguard kwv yees.
Tus nqi stocks tau rub ua ntej, yog li qhov no tsuas yog kev txuas ntxiv ntawm qhov S&P 500's trend. SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Kev Loj Hlob ETF (SPYG) poob ze li ntawm 18% xyoo dhau los. Lub sijhawm ntawd, SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Tus Nqi ETF (SPYV) yog nce 0.4%.
International Stocks yuav Superior
Vanguard tej zaum yuav downbeat ntawm US stocks. Tab sis tus thawj tswj hwm nyiaj txiag loj heev yog sanguine ntau ntawm cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov tuam txhab sab nraud Asmeskas
Cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, tsis suav nrog Asmeskas, yuav nce 7.4% mus rau 9.4% hauv ib xyoos hauv 10 xyoo tom ntej, Vanguard hais. Ntawm qhov kawg ntawm qhov ntau, qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias tsis yog-US cov khoom lag luam yuav ua tiav US cov khoom lag luam ntau dua 40%.
Lub caij no, cov khoom lag luam tawm tshiab pom tau nce 7% mus rau 9% txhua xyoo. Qhov no yog qhov kev hu xov tooj rau ntau tus neeg ua lag luam Asmeskas uas nyiam cov khoom lag luam uas tsis yog-US.
Bonds Yuav Tau Txais Kev Loj Hlob Stocks?
Thiab ntawm no yog ib qho kev tshwm sim ceeb, ib yam nkaus. Vanguard xav tias US aggregate bonds, zoo li koj xav tau hauv iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (ADJ), yuav rov qab los ntawm 4.1% mus rau 5.1% txhua xyoo.
Yog hais tias yog lawm, nws txhais tau tias koj yuav ua tau ntau dua ntawm lub pob tawb ntawm tsoomfwv thiab cov tuam txhab nyiaj ntau dua li qhov koj yuav tau los ntawm kev loj hlob cov khoom lag luam hauv S&P 500 hauv 10 xyoo tom ntej.
Thiab tau txais qhov no. Yog tias koj txaus siab ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo ntau dua hauv daim ntawv cog lus, koj tuaj yeem ua tau ntau dua li ntawm US stocks. Vanguard xav tias US cov tuam txhab lag luam cov txiaj ntsig siab yuav rov qab los 6.6% rau 7.6% txhua xyoo. Thiab cov kev lag luam tawm tshiab tau pom tias nce 6.4% mus rau 7.4% txhua xyoo.
Vanguard tej zaum yuav yog tus tswv ntawm feem ntau cov khoom hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas, tus thawj tswj nyiaj txiag loj tshaj plaws thiab cov neeg saib xyuas ntawm trillions ntawm cov nyiaj. Tab sis nws tuaj yeem ua yuam kev. Piv txwv li, nws xav tias US kev nce nqi tsuas yog 2% mus rau 3% ib xyoos ib zaug hauv 10 xyoo tom ntej. Cov nqi tau nce sai dua li tam sim no.
Tab sis Vanguard's cov ntaub ntawv ruaj khov ua rau lub tuam txhab tsim nyog mloog.
Vanguard's Hu Rau Xyoo Tom Ntej
| stocks | Annualized rov projection |
|---|---|
| Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam | 4.7% -6.7% |
| US tus nqi | 4.7% -6.7% |
| US kev loj hlob | 3.1% - 5.1% |
| US loj cap | 4.7% - 6.7% |
| US me cap | 5.0% - 7.0% |
| Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse | 4.9% - 6.9% |
| Ntiaj teb no stocks ex-US | 7.4% - 9.4% |
| Ntiaj teb no ex-US tsim lag luam | 7.2% - 9.2% |
| Cov kev lag luam tawm tshiab | 7.0% - 9.0% |
| bonds | Annualized rov projection |
| US aggregate bonds | 4.1% - 5.1% |
| Tsoomfwv Meskas Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj | 3.7% - 4.7% |
| US credit bonds | 4.7% - 5.7% |
| US high-yield tuam txhab bonds | 6.6% - 7.6% |
| US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities | 3.2% - 4.2% |
| US nyiaj ntsuab | 3.4% - 4.4% |
| Ntiaj teb no daim ntawv cog lus ex-US | 4.0% - 5.0% |
| Emerging Markets govt. daim ntawv cog lus | 6.4% - 7.4% |
| Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev nce nqi | 2.0% - 3.0% |
Tau qhov twg los: IBD, Vanguard
Ua raws li Matt Krantz ntawm Twitter @matkrantz ua
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Tau qhov twg los: https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-vanguard-predicts-stock-returns-youre-not-going-to-like-them/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo