S&P 500 Performance index yog teem rau nosedive, Wall Street #1 kws tshuaj ntsuam ceeb toom

cov S&P 500 Qhov ntsuas tau siav rau qhov kev sib tsoo loj, raws li cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Morgan Stanley (NYSE MS). Qhov ze-saib Performance index tau poob mus rau nws qhov qis tshaj plaws txij li Lub Ib Hlis 26. Nws nyob li ntawm 4.70% qis dua qib siab tshaj xyoo no.

Morgan Stanley cov lus ceeb toom hnyav

Qee cov kws tshuaj ntsuam thiab cov tub ua lag luam tau soj ntsuam lawv qhov kev xav rau S&P 500 thiab kev lag luam dav dav. Lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb yog tias cov khoom lag luam tau dhia nrawm dhau los ua thawj koom ruam tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav pivot sai sai vim tias kev poob nyiaj txiag. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, S&P 500 tau txav mus rau lub khw muag nyuj, dhia 20% los ntawm nws qhov qis tshaj plaws hauv 2022. Cov nyiaj Asmeskas tseem poob ntawm $ 115 txog $ 100.

Lwm qhov kev tshawb fawb yog tias cov tuam txhab cov nyiaj tau los tsis tau muaj zog raws li qhov xav tau. Raws li FactSet, S&P 500 cov nyiaj tau los thiab cov nyiaj tau los loj hlob yog qhov qis tshaj plaws txij li thaum muaj kev sib kis. Thiab feem ntau cov tuam txhab tau qhia kev ntshai txog kev lag luam. Hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm, Morgan Stanley ceeb toom tias S&P 500 Performance index thiab SPY ETF tuaj yeem poob li ntawm 26%. 

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm yog qhov tseem ceeb vim tias nws los ntawm Mike Wilson, uas yog tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau zoo. Nyob rau hauv 2022, Institutional Investor ranked nws raws li tus naj npawb 1 kws tshuaj ntsuam nyob rau hauv Wall Street. Nws hais tias:

"Qhov kev pheej hmoo-khoom plig rau cov khoom lag luam tam sim no "tsis zoo heev," tshwj xeeb tshaj yog vim Fed nyob deb ntawm qhov xaus nws cov nyiaj txiag nruj, cov nqi tseem siab dua nyob rau hauv qhov nkhaus thiab cov kev cia siab ntawm cov nyiaj tau los tseem yog 10% mus rau 20% siab dhau lawm."

Jeremy Grantham kuj yog qhov poob qis heev

Mike Wilson tsis yog tus dais nkaus xwb hauv Wall Street. Jeremy Grantham, yog ib tus neeg ua lag luam uas muaj kev hwm tshaj plaws txhua lub sijhawm tsis ntev los no tau ceeb toom tias S&P 500 Performance index tuaj yeem poob mus txog $ 3,200. Grantham, uas nrhiav tau $ 75 billion GMO Capital, yog thawj cov tub ua lag luam ceeb toom txog cov npuas super hauv khw muag khoom.

Lub caij no, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Bank of America tau ceeb toom tias S&P 500 qhov ntsuas yuav poob mus rau $ 3,800. Lawv qhov kev txheeb xyuas tau raug me ntsis txiav txim siab tias qhov ntsuas tau poob mus txog $ 4,000. JP Morgan cov kws tshuaj ntsuam kuj ceeb toom uas:

"Keeb kwm yav dhau los, cov peev txheej tsis feem ntau hauv qab ua ntej Fed tau nce siab nrog kev txiav, thiab peb yeej tsis pom qhov qis dua ua ntej Fed tseem tsis tau taug kev."

Nrog rau qhov nkhaus tawm los yog qhov hloov pauv ntau tshaj plaws nws tau nyob hauv kaum xyoo, muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm kev lag luam poob qis. Hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm, Jim Cramer tau hais tias kev sib tw ua lag luam yuav tsuas tshwm sim yog tias Fed hloov nws cov suab hais txog cov paj laum.