Kev poob qis tsis lom zem ua neej nyob. Tab sis yog tias koj npaj, lawv tsis tas yuav mob rau koj S&P 500 portfolio, ib yam.
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Yim cov khoom lag luam hauv S&P 500, suav nrog cov ntaub ntawv thev naus laus zis ua si F5 (FFIV) thiab Tyler yees (TYL) ntxiv rau cov neeg siv khoom xav tau AutoZone (AZO), txhua tus tau nce 30% lossis ntau dua nyob rau yav dhau los peb qhov kev poob qis ntawm qhov nruab nrab txij li xyoo 2000 los yeej S&P 500 txhua lub sijhawm, hais tias Investor's Business Daily tsom xam cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm S&P Ntiaj Teb Kev Lag Luam Kev Txawj Ntse, CFRA thiab MarketSmith. Cov khoom lag luam no tau nce ze li 43% ntawm qhov nruab nrab thaum peb qhov kev poob qis dhau los. Qhov ntawd zoo nkauj heev yog tias koj xav txog S&P 500 nws tus kheej poob ze li 19% nyob rau tib lub sijhawm.
Yog tias koj tsis xav txog kev poob nyiaj txiag, nws yog lub sijhawm. Tag nrho cov cim yog siav. Kev lag luam poob qis yog lub sijhawm ntawm ob qhov rov qab-rau-rov qab poob hauv GDP. Niaj hnub no inversion ntawm daim ntawv cog lus yield yog lub suab ceeb toom ntawm kev poob nyiaj txiag. Quincy Krosby ntawm LPL Financial tau hais tias "Cov txiaj ntsig nkhaus zoo li tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam hauv nws qhov kev hu xov tooj rau kev poob qis hauv 2023," Quincy Krosby ntawm LPL Nyiaj Txiag. Raws li yog Fed uas yog hellbent ntawm kev lag luam qeeb. Txawm tias cov tuam txhab CEOs pom teeb meem ua ntej. Puas yog 14th kev poob qis txij li xyoo 1945 tuaj ze?
"Fed cov kev nqis tes ua los txo kev nce nqi yuav ua rau kev lag luam tsis zoo. Nyob ntawm seb qhov nyuaj npaum li cas tom, peb tuaj yeem pom qhov kev poob qis hauv 2023, "said Brad McMillan, Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam rau Kev Lag Luam Nyiaj Txiag Network.
Lo lus nug yog qhov twg muab koj cov nyiaj.
S&P 500 Sectors Uas Ciaj sia Kev Txom Nyem
Nws yog kev ntxias kom xav tias tag nrho S&P 500 cov khoom tank nyob rau hauv kev txom nyem. Tab sis qhov no tsuas yog tsis muaj tseeb, hais tias CFRA Strategist Sam Stovall.
Amazingly, S&P 500 nws tus kheej tau nce 1%, nyob rau nruab nrab, thaum txhua lub sijhawm rov qab mus rau xyoo 1945, Stovall pom. Qhov no ua tau li cas? Cov tub lag luam feem ntau pov tseg cov khoom lag luam ua ntej kev lag luam pib pib. Tab sis txawm tias koj rov qab mus rau 1990, qhov twg kev lag luam muaj feem cuam tshuam nrog kev lag luam, S&P 500 tsuas yog poob 8.8% ntawm qhov nruab nrab.
Thiab yog tias koj tab tom nrhiav chaw nkaum, muaj ob S&P 500 sectors uas tau txais thaum lub sijhawm poob qis txij li xyoo 1990. Cov no yog kev saib xyuas kev noj qab haus huv, uas tau nce 1.8% ntawm qhov nruab nrab, thiab cov neeg siv khoom noj khoom haus, uas ntxiv 0.4%, Stovall pom. Kev txhim kho tsev muag khoom yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws sub-kev lag luam uas yuav tsum tau nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm nyuaj. Nws tau nce 14.8% ntawm qhov nruab nrab. Tab sis hlau thiab iav ntim ntxiv rau khau tsis yog qhov phem, nce 13.3% thiab 12%, feem.
Qhov zoo tshaj plaws thiab qhov phem tshaj plaws thaum lub sij hawm poob nyiaj
| Sector | % ch. nyob rau hauv recessions txij li thaum 1990 | Related ETF | cim | YTD% ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 1.8% | Kev Kho Mob Xaiv Sector SPDR | (XLV) | -1.8% |
| Neeg Siv Khoom Siv Staples | 0.4% | Consumer Staples Xaiv Sector SPDR | (XLP) | -1.2% |
| Nasdaq | -3.0% | Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 | (QQQ) | -27.7% |
| S&P 500 Kev Loj Hlob | -4.8% | SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Kev Loj Hlob | (SPYG) | -25.7% |
| Information Technology | -5.0% | Technology Xaiv Sector SPDR | (XLK) | -23.5% |
| Tus Neeg Siv Khoom Siv Tawm | -5.0% | Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR | (XLY) | -30.7% |
| ntaub ntawv | -8.5% | Cov Khoom Siv Xaiv Sector SPDR | (XLB) | -9.4% |
| S&P 500 | -8.8% | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Ntseeg | (SIV) | -15.9% |
| S&P MidCap 400 | -12.2% | SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF Trust | (MDY) | -11.5% |
| S&P 500 Tus nqi | -12.8% | SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Tus Nqi | (SPYV) | -4.8% |
| S&P SmallCap 600 | -12.9% | SPDR S&P 600 Me Cap | (txawj ntse) | -13.3% |
| Cov Kev Sib Txuas Lus | -13.4% | Kev Sib Txuas Lus Xaiv Sector SPDR | (XLC) | -34.2% |
| Chaw Tsim Tshuaj | -14.9% | Muaj Kev Xaiv Cheeb Tsam SPDR | (XLI) | -4.9% |
| Utilities | -16.5% | Cov Khoom Siv Xaiv Cheeb Tsam SPDR | (XLU) | -1.4% |
| zog | -16.8% | Zog Xaiv Sector SPDR | (XLE) | 57.8% |
| Nyiaj txiag | -17.1% | Cov Nyiaj Txiag Cov Xaiv Cheeb Tsam SPDR | (XLF) | -10.3% |
| Av | -30.8% | Cov Cuab Yeej Av Xaiv Cheeb Tsam SPDR | (XLRE) | -26.1% |
Qhov chaw: CFRA, S&P Ntiaj Teb Kev Lag Luam Kev Txawj Ntse
Tech Stocks Ua Tau Zoo Hauv Kev Txom Nyem?
Qee tus neeg S&P 500 cov khoom lag luam tuav tau zoo hauv kev lag luam, ib yam nkaus. Yog tias koj tsis yog tab tom nrhiav nyiaj txiag kev txom nyem, tab sis kom tau nyiaj, koj yuav xav saib huab ruaj ntseg F5. Shares rocketed ntau tshaj 77% thaum lub sij hawm dhau los peb recessions.
Thiab cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem ua tau zoo dua qub thaum kev lag luam sputters. Shares rocketed ze li ntawm 190% thaum lub sij hawm yim lub hlis kev lag luam uas thaum kawg xaus rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2001. Qhov ntawd yog S&P 500's 8.2% poob rau lub sijhawm ntawd. Txawm hais tias, nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum nco ntsoov qhov kev poob qis ntawm S&P 500 thaum lub sij hawm kev lag luam poob qis yog 57%, Stovall hais. Nco ntsoov, ib yam nkaus, cov khoom lag luam tawm tsam xyoo no kom deb li deb. Nws poob ntau dua 38%.
Lwm tus yeej loj hauv peb qhov kev poob qis dhau los yog lwm lub tuam txhab cov ntaub ntawv thev naus laus zis: Tyler Technologies. Lub tuam txhab ua kev tswj software rau pej xeem sector. Shares dhia ntau tshaj 63.6%, nyob rau nruab nrab, nyob rau hauv peb lub recessions yav dhau los. Tab sis zoo li F5, shares tau tawm tsam xyoo no: nqis 39.9%.
Tsav Tsheb Recession Gains
Tab sis tsawg kawg yog ib qho kev lag luam poob nyiaj txiag, tsheb qhov muag AutoZone, tau vam meej nyob rau xyoo no. Shares tau nce ze li ntawm 21% xyoo no vim cov neeg siv khoom yuav khoom kom lawv cov tsheb qub khiav. Cov Tshuag tau boomed ntau tshaj 63%, nyob rau nruab nrab, nyob rau hauv peb yav dhau los recessions. Qhov ntawd yog qhov No.
Kom paub meej, S&P 500 ua rau nws qhov kev poob loj tshaj plaws ua ntej pib kev lag luam. S&P 500 poob qhov twg los ntawm 7% mus rau 57% nyob rau hauv kwv yees li xya lub hlis ua ntej kev lag luam yav dhau los, Stovall tau hais.
Thiab yog tias kev lag luam poob qis tuaj, tsis txhob xav tias Fed yuav tso koj cov khoom lag luam tawm. "Qhov kev pheej hmoo uas Fed tej zaum yuav xav tau ua kom nce siab ntxiv thiab yog vim li cas qhov kev lag luam no yuav tsum tau mus rau ib qho kev poob nyiaj txiag, "said Oanda's Edward Moya. “No ntxiv mus lub caij txom nyem txawm li cas los xij yuav tsis tau txais kev cawmdim los ntawm Fed easing sai lossis kev teb nyiaj txiag vim qhov ntawd yuav ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo nyiaj txiag. "ua
Kev poob qis-Beating S&P 500 Tshuag
Thaum lub sijhawm dhau los peb qhov kev poob qis txij li xyoo 2000
| lub tuam txhab | cim | Qhov nruab nrab Tshuag % ch. zaum kawg peb recessions | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| F5 | (FFIV) | 77.7% | Information Technology |
| AutoZone | (AZO) | 63.6 | Tus Neeg Siv Khoom Siv Tawm |
| Tyler yees | (TYL) | 48.9 | Information Technology |
| Gilead Sciences | (GILD) | 46.4 | Health Care |
| EQT | (EQT) | 39.8 | zog |
| Tsheb Laij Teb Khoom | (TSCO) | 36.8 | Tus Neeg Siv Khoom Siv Tawm |
| ANSYS | (ANSS) | 32.6 | Information Technology |
| O'Reilly Automotive | (ORLY) | 31.2 | Tus Neeg Siv Khoom Siv Tawm |
Cov Khoom: IBD, S&P Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Thoob Ntiaj Teb
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etfs/sp500-stocks-youll-wish-you-own-when-the-recession-hits/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo