Muaj ntau S&P 500 investor ntseeg tau tias kev lag luam poob qis ntawm txoj kev. Thiab yog tias nws yog, koj yuav xav paub seb cov khoom lag luam twg yuav tsum zam.
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Cov khoom lag luam uas niaj hnub raug kev txom nyem feem ntau thaum muaj kev lag luam poob qis yog qee qhov tsis txaus ntseeg. Tsib cov khoom lag luam hauv S&P 500, suav nrog tuam txhab lag luam Boeing (BA) thiab cov tuam txhab hluav taws xob Baker Hughes (BKR) thiab Halliburton (Hal), ua tsis tau zoo ntawm S&P 500 nyob rau hauv txhua ntawm tsib lub sijhawm dhau los, hais tias Investor's Business Daily tsom xam cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm S&P Ntiaj Teb Kev Lag Luam Kev Txawj Ntse thiab MarketSmith. Txhua tus lag luam S&P 500 hauv txhua ntawm tsib qhov kev poob qis txij li xyoo 1980.
Lub tswv yim hais tias qee qhov kev siv hluav taws xob thiab lub zog tuaj yeem ua tsis tau zoo hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam yog kev hu xov tooj. Cov no yog cov haujlwm tiag tiag ntau S&P 500 cov tub ua lag luam tau maj nrawm rau tam sim no raws li qhov Qhov txawv ntawm kev lag luam loj hlob. Jeffrey Roach, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm LPL Financial tau hais tias "Kev pheej hmoo nyiaj rov qab tau nce ntxiv rau xyoo tom ntej, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tias cov nqi siab tau nkag mus rau hauv kev lag luam," said Jeffrey Roach, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm LPL Financial.
Vim li cas Kev Txom Nyem Ntawm Lub Rooj Rau S&P 500 Cov Lag Luam
Cov tub lag luam feem ntau xav tias yuav muaj kev lag luam poob qis txhua xyoo. Thiab nws tsuas yog ob xyoos txij li thaum Covid-19 qhov tshwm sim tau tshwm sim rau xyoo 2020. Vim li cas kev lag luam poob nyiaj txiag tam sim no?
Skyrocketing kev nce nqi, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau roj thiab vaj tse, yog crimping neeg siv khoom.
Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cog lus tias yuav ua rau kev lag luam txias txias. Cov neeg ua lag luam tau npaj rau cov paj laum luv luv kom dhia los ntawm tsawg kawg 2.5 feem pua cov ntsiab lus los ntawm lub xyoo kawg, hais tias Tus Economist. Thiab thaum cov nqi nce sai, kev lag luam poob qis feem ntau ua raws. Tus Economist pom tias nyob rau hauv rau ntawm xya lub voj voog uas cov paj laum tau nce sai sai no qhov kev lag luam poob qis dua li ob xyoos tom qab.
"Fed xav tau kev puas tsuaj, nres tag nrho. Nws yog lawv (tsuas yog) txoj cai rauj rau tus ntsia thawv nyiaj txiag. Qhov no tsis zoo rau cov cuab yeej cuab tam, "said Scott Ladner, Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam ntawm Horizon Investments.
Cov neeg lag luam feem ntau ua ib yam hauv kev lag luam: Lawv muag S&P 500 cov khoom lag luam. Tab sis tsis ntau npaum li koj xav. Muaj 11 qhov kev poob qis hauv Asmeskas txij li qhov pib xyoo 1953. Thiab S&P 500 tau poob qhov nruab nrab 2.1% thaum lawv. Tseeb, nws tuaj yeem ua phem dua. S&P 500 plunged 11.2% nyob rau hauv qhov kev lag luam kawg uas tau pib hauv 2020. Thiab nws poob ze li ntawm 38% hauv 2007-pib kev lag luam poob qis.
Tab sis qee qhov S&P 500 cov khoom lag luam tshwj xeeb yog qhov muaj txiaj ntsig zoo thaum muaj kev lag luam poob qis.
Lub S&P 500 Tshuag Koj Tsis Xav Ua Tus Kheej Hauv Kev Txom Nyem: Boeing
Yog tias muaj S&P 500 cov khoom lag luam uas yuav ua rau cov neeg lag luam xav tsis thoob nrog nws cov ntaub ntawv tsis zoo nyob rau hauv kev lag luam tsis ntev los no, nws yog tus tsim lub dav hlau Boeing.
Shares ntawm lub tuam txhab uas yog ib feem ntawm ib tug nyob ze oligopoly rau kev lag luam dav hlau yog ib tug dud nyob rau hauv kev txom nyem. Shares tau poob qhov nruab nrab 40.1% hauv tsib qhov kev lag luam dhau los. Qhov ntawd yog qhov qhia tsis zoo tshaj plaws ntawm S&P 500 Tshuag hauv lub sijhawm ntawd. Nws tseem ceeb heev, ib yam nkaus, raws li Boeing feem ntau nqa qhov rov qab loj ntawm kev xaj dav hlau.
Tab sis pom tau tias qee qhov kev xav tau evaporates hauv kev lag luam, nrog rau kev thov rau cov khoom lag luam. Shares ntawm Boeing poob 56% nyob rau hauv kev txom nyem uas pib nyob rau hauv 2020, 43% nyob rau hauv ib tug pib nyob rau hauv 2007 thiab 47% nyob rau hauv 2001 kev lag luam. Thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov txaus ntshai tiag tiag rau cov tub ua lag luam piling uas twb tau thawb nws 37% xyoo no.
Tsis txhob siv zog thiab kev siv hluav taws xob hauv kev poob nyiaj txiag?
Cov tub ua lag luam tau tso rau hauv lub zog thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob xyoo no kom tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev nce nqi. Tab sis muaj ib qho teeb meem xwb: Ntau ntawm cov khoom lag luam no raug kev txom nyem loj heev hauv kev lag luam.
Coj Halliburton. Nws yog ib qho khoom lag luam nrov xyoo no, nce li ntawm 77% vim nws tau muab cov cuab yeej xav tau los tshawb nrhiav cov roj fossil nqi siab. Tab sis nws yog ib qho khoom txaus ntshai los ua tus tswv hauv kev lag luam yav dhau los. Halliburton shares poob qhov nruab nrab ntawm ntau dua 40% hauv tsib qhov kev lag luam dhau los. Thiab nws tuaj yeem ua phem dua, tseem. Shares ntawm Halliburton poob ntau tshaj li ib nrab ntawm lawv cov nqi hauv 2020 Covid kev lag luam.
Thiab nws yog ib zaj dab neeg zoo sib xws nrog Baker Hughes, kuj yog tus muab khoom siv rau cov tuam txhab hluav taws xob. Nws cov khoom lag luam poob ntau dua 30%, qhov nruab nrab, hauv tsib qhov kev poob qis kawg.
Qhov no tuaj yeem yog qhov kev tshwm sim loj rau cov tub ua lag luam uas tab tom nkag mus rau hauv lub zog thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob. Nws yog dav xav tias lawv yog cov thawj koom ruam zoo thaum kev nce nqi. Lub Zog Xaiv Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) yog nce 59% hauv lub xyoo kom txog rau tam sim no. Thiab cov Utilities Xaiv Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) tsuas yog 0.2%. Qhov ntawd yog qhov ua tau zoo heev thaum S&P 500 tawm li 18% ntawm lub xyoo.
Tab sis yog tias muaj kev lag luam poob qis, txhua qhov kev twv txiaj tau tawm. Cov khoom lag luam hluav taws xob poob ntau dua 20% ntawm lawv cov nqi hauv peb qhov kev poob qis dhau los.
Tsis txhob xav tias ntau tus tub ua lag luam xav tau qhov ntawd.
Qhov phem tshaj S&P 500 Tshuag Thaum Muaj Kev Txom Nyem
Lawv lagged kev lag luam nyob rau hauv txhua ntawm tsib qhov kev lag luam dhau los
| lub tuam txhab | cim | Tshuag xyoo-rau-hnub % ch. | Nruab nrab % Tshuag ch. kawg tsib recessions | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halliburton | (Hal) | 77% | -40.1% | zog |
| Boeing | (BA) | -36.9 | -33.4 | Chaw Tsim Tshuaj |
| Baker Hughes | (BKR) | 45.4 | -31.2 | zog |
| Schlumberger | (SLB) | 57.6 | -30.8 | zog |
| Miskas fais fab | (AEP) | 10.4 | -13.5 | Utilities |
| S&P 500 | -18.0 | -9.2 |
Cov Khoom: IBD, S&P Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Thoob Ntiaj Teb
Ua raws li Matt Krantz ntawm Twitter @matkrantz ua
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Tau qhov twg los: https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-avoid-stocks-like-the-plague-when-the-recession-starts/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo