Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell ua tim khawv thaum lub rooj sib tham Senate Banking, Housing, thiab Urban Affairs Committee lub rooj sib hais hu ua The Semiennual Monetary Policy Report rau Congress, hauv Hart Building hnub Tuesday, Peb Hlis 7, 2023.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Hu, Inc. | Cov duab Getty
Thaum Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve pib nce tus nqi paj, feem ntau nws tseem ua li ntawd kom txog thaum ib yam dab tsi tawg, lossis yog li ntawd mus rau cov kev txawj ntse ntawm Wall Street.
Yog li nrog cov thib ob- thiab thib peb-loj tshaj lub txhab nyiaj tsis ua haujlwm puas tau nyob rau hauv cov phau ntawv nyuam qhuav dhau los ob peb hnub dhau los thiab kev txhawj xeeb ntawm ntau ntxiv tuaj, uas yuav zoo li tsim nyog raws li kev puas tsuaj loj thiab yog vim li cas rau lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab kom thim rov qab.
Tsis yog li ntawd.
Txawm hais tias qhov tsis ua haujlwm dhau los ob peb hnub dhau los ntawm Silicon Valley Bank thiab Signature Bank uas yuam kom cov regulators caij nplooj ntoos hlav mus ua, kev lag luam tseem cia siab tias Fed yuav ua kom nws cov nyiaj txiag sib ntaus sib tua.
Qhov tseeb, cov xwm txheej tseem ceeb yuav tsis txawm tsim nyog tau txais txiaj ntsig raws li ib yam dab tsi tawg hauv lub siab ntawm Wall Street.
Quincy Krosby, tus kws tshaj lij thoob ntiaj teb ntawm LPL Financial hais tias "Tsis yog, nws tsis yog. "Puas yog qhov no txaus kom tsim nyog raws li hom kev tawg uas yuav muaj Fed pivot? Kev ua lag luam tag nrho tsis xav li ntawd. "
thaum kev ua lag luam pricing yog volatile Hnub Monday, qhov kev tsis ncaj ncees yog rau Fed uas yuav txuas ntxiv nruj txoj cai nyiaj txiag. Cov tub lag luam tau muab 85% qhov tshwm sim ntawm 0.25 feem pua ntawm cov paj laum nce thaum Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Qhib Kev Lag Luam Pawg Neeg Ua Haujlwm ntsib lub Peb Hlis 21-22 hauv Washington, raws li CME Group kwv yees. Rau lub sijhawm luv luv lub lim tiam dhau los, kev lag luam tau cia siab tias yuav muaj 0.5-point txav, tom qab cov lus hais los ntawm Fed Chair Jerome Powell qhia tias lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tau txhawj xeeb cov ntaub ntawv kub nce nqi tsis ntev los no.
Xav txog qhov pivot
Goldman Sachs hnub Monday tau hais nws tsis xav tias Fed mus taug kev txhua lub hlis no, txawm tias muaj tsawg, yog tias muaj, lwm tus kws tshaj lij ntawm Wall Street uas tau qhia txoj haujlwm ntawd. Ob Lub Tuam Txhab Nyiaj Txiag Tebchaws Asmeskas thiab Citigroup tau hais tias lawv cia siab tias Fed yuav ua rau lub quarter-point txav, yuav ua raws li ob peb ntxiv.
Ntxiv mus, txawm tias Goldman tau hais tias nws suav tias Fed yuav hla lub Peb Hlis, nws tseem tab tom nrhiav rau lub quarter-point hikes hauv lub Tsib Hlis, Lub Rau Hli thiab Lub Xya Hli.
"Peb xav tias Fed cov tub ceev xwm zoo li yuav ua qhov tseem ceeb rau kev ruaj ntseg nyiaj txiag rau tam sim no, saib nws yog qhov teeb meem tam sim ntawd thiab kev nce nqi siab yog qhov teeb meem nruab nrab," Goldman hais rau cov neeg siv khoom hauv ib daim ntawv.
Krosby tau hais tias Fed yuav muaj tsawg kawg yog los tham txog lub tswv yim ntawm kev tuav tawm ntawm kev nce ntxiv.
Lub lim tiam tom ntej lub rooj sib tham yog qhov loj heev uas FOMC tsis yog tsuas yog yuav txiav txim siab ntawm tus nqi tab sis kuj tseem yuav hloov kho nws qhov kev kwv yees rau yav tom ntej, suav nrog nws qhov kev xav txog GDP, kev poob haujlwm thiab kev nce nqi.
“Tsis ntseeg, lawv tab tom tham txog nws. Cov lus nug yog lawv puas yuav txhawj xeeb tej zaum uas txhawb nqa kev ntshai? nws hais. "Lawv yuav tsum tau xov tooj [ua ntej lub rooj sib tham] mus rau kev lag luam uas lawv yuav tsum ncua, lossis tias lawv yuav mus txuas ntxiv kev sib ntaus sib tua. Qhov no yog tag nrho rau kev sib tham. "