Tej zaum yuav muaj ntau tus neeg hla tawm ntawm cov dej qhib rau lub caij ntuj sov no txawm hais tias tej yam kev mob ntawm cov av qhuav yog ib qho ntawm cov nyiaj kub kub, poob nqi Tshuag, Thiab ramant recession ntshai.
"Txawm hais tias daim pib loj rau cov neeg siv khoom txiav txim siab tau tso tseg los ntawm cov tub ua lag luam, qee tus neeg tsis nco qab qhia txog kev lag luam nkoj," Citi tus kws tshuaj ntsuam James Hardiman tau sau rau hauv daim ntawv tshiab rau cov neeg siv khoom. "Peb cov kev kuaj xyuas channel ntawm ntau dua 30 North American nkoj cov tswv lag luam tawm tswv yim kom nrawm ntawm kev muag khoom thiab lwm yam kev taw qhia raws li huab cua txhim kho thaum lub Tsib Hlis."
Hardiman tus neeg muag khoom hu xov tooj tshaj tawm kev muag khoom nce los ntawm ib nrab mus rau ib tus lej feem pua ntawm cov lej dhau los ntawm lub hli dhau los piv rau 2019 txawm tias "tseem ceeb" cov khoom muag qis.
"Txawm hais tias cov tswv lag luam qhia qee qhov kev txhawj xeeb txog kev noj qab haus huv ntawm kev lag luam thiab cov neeg siv khoom, txog tam sim no tsuas yog lub sijhawm nyob ze rau qhov xav tau yog huab cua thiab cov khoom muaj thiab kev muag khoom tau muaj zog thaum twg los tau zoo dua," Hardiman tau hais. "Cov neeg muag khoom tseem tab tom hais txog cov khoom muag ntau ntxiv thiab ntseeg tias kev muag khoom yuav siab dua yog tias lawv muaj, ib yam li qhov zoo dua ntawm ob xyoos dhau los."
Mus rau daim duab, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov tuam txhab xws li Target thiab Walmart ceeb toom txog cov neeg siv khoom siv qeeb thiab cov khoom lag luam nyob hauv ib dais lag luam raws li ntsuas los ntawm S&P 500.
Thiab raws li rau cov neeg sawv cev tawm muaj, qhov tseem ceeb xws li gas, khoom noj haus, Thiab tsev nyob yog ib qho ntawm cov kev txhawj xeeb tseem ceeb - tsis tso npe rau lub nkoj tshiab $ 1,000,000.
"Los ntawm ntu, kev thov tseem kub rau cov nkoj loj dua, cov nqi siab dua, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov qauv sab nrauv," Hardiman tau sau tseg. "Hmoov tsis zoo, cov no kuj yog qhov nyuaj tshaj plaws los ntawm (tshwj xeeb tshaj yog fiberglass outboard nkoj) thiab cov qauv nrov tshaj plaws Sea Ray thiab Boston Whaler tau muag zoo rau xyoo 2023 thiab dhau mus."
Tsoom Fwv Tebchaws Reserve hiked paj laum los ntawm 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus rau hnub Wednesday nyob rau hauv kev sib tw kom qeeb qib siab ntawm kev nce nqi. Los ntawm nws tus kheej kev lees paub, Fed tab tom hloov mus rau "kev txwv tsis pub muaj" lub sijhawm ntawm txoj cai uas tuaj yeem hnyav rau kev noj qab haus huv ntawm kev ua lag luam nyob rau lub sijhawm thaum ntau tsev neeg tawm tsam ntau ntxiv.
Jefferies tau ceeb toom hauv daim ntawv tshiab tias "Qhov kev poob qis ib txwm nce nrog cov nqi roj ntau dua," "Yog tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau npaj siab ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam nyiaj txiag, ces qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm nyiaj txiag ntau dhau - qhov xwm txheej phem tshaj plaws rau kev sib npaug - yuav raug ntaus tawm hauv kev lag luam credit."
Pom tau tias cov lus nug tiag tiag no tsis tau ua rau nws cov sipping mimosas ntawm lub hnub lawj. Peb xav tias lawv yuav sai sai no.
Brian Sozzi yog ib qho editor-at-large thiab thauj tog rau nkoj ntawm Yahoo FinanceCov. Ua raws li Sozzi ntawm Twitter @BrianSozzi thiab nyob rau LinkedIn.
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boat-industry-inflation-bear-market-and-recession-fears-104547131.html