Thaum nws qis rau hnub Friday, S&P 500 tau nqis 20% los ntawm nws qhov siab tshaj plaws. Thiab thaum nws kaw me ntsis siab dua —- zam qhov kev txhais lus ntawm lub lag luam dais - qhov nqaim tsis nco qab cov nplaim taws hauv kev sib cav sib ceg sai ntawm bears thiab bulls dhau txoj hmoo ntawm kev lag luam Tshuag.
Bulls nyob twj ywm upbeat tias lub downturn yog ib luv luv contraction thiab hais tias lub khw lag luam twb tau nqi nyob rau hauv lub ntse slowdown. Optimists ntseeg hais tias kev nce nqi yuav pib txias nyob rau ob peb lub hlis tom ntej no, thiab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve, nyob rau hauv lem, yuav plam nws txoj cai nruj.
Lawv kuj taw tes rau qhov txuas ntxiv zog ntawm kev ua lag luam ua haujlwm, ua pov thawj los ntawm tus nqi poob haujlwm qis thiab lub lis piam ntawm cov neeg tsis muaj haujlwm thov uas tau txav mus rau lawv cov ntsiab lus qis tshaj hauv kaum xyoo. Thiab nrog kev lag luam muaj zog ua haujlwm los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom noj qab haus huv. Tseeb tiag, Lub Plaub Hlis muag muag Raws li kev pom zoo kev cia siab, nce 0.9% lub hli dhau ib hlis.
Tab sis cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev lag luam tau poob qis ntawm lawv txoj kev hu xov tooj, hais kom cov tub ua lag luam zaum tawm ob peb lub hlis tom ntej vim tias kev ntshai ntawm kev lag luam poob qis dua.
"Peb ntseeg tias qhov tsis sib xws tau sib sau ua ke hnyav rau Fed hauv lawv qhov kev sib tw kom tsis txhob muaj kev poob qis," Wolfe Research kws tshuaj ntsuam coj los ntawm Chris Senyek sau rau hauv ib daim ntawv. "Txawm hais tias feem coob ntawm Street economists tsis pom zoo nrog peb, kev lag luam tau nce los ntawm peb qhov kev xav."
Ntau tus kws tshawb fawb txog nyiaj txiag tau tawm tswv yim tias Tebchaws Meskas twb tau mus txog qhov nce siab tshaj plaws, nrog rau cov neeg siv khoom lag luam qhia pom cov cim ntawm decelerating nyob rau lub Plaub Hlis. Tseem, kev nce nqi tseem nyob ze rau nws qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv kaum xyoo, thiab pab pawg ntawm Wolfe Research xav tias cov nuj nqis tuaj yeem kub dua li qhov xav tau hauv peb lub hlis tom ntej.
Tej zaum muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntau dua, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau sau tseg, kev nce nyiaj tau nce ntxiv thoob plaws hauv kev lag luam. Qhov no tsim cov kev tawm tswv yim tsis zoo uas yuav ua rau cov nqi nce siab tshaj 2022 thiab yuav ua rau Fed kom nruj dua thiab ntev dua li Wall Street tam sim no kwv yees, lawv ntxiv.
Cov qauv no tsis zoo rau kev ua lag luam Tshuag, uas twb tau txais kev ntaus nqi thoob plaws hauv lub xyoo.
"Peb qhov kev nkag siab yog tias lub lag luam dais theem tom ntej yuav raug tsav los ntawm kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam poob qis (peb cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb tseem nyob 2023) thiab kev hloov kho nyiaj poob qis," lawv sau.
Kev lag luam kev lag luam yuav cuam tshuam loj rau kev noj qab haus huv ntawm cov neeg siv khoom, ua rau qhov tsis zoo ntawm cov nyiaj tau los tiag tiag kev loj hlob thiab txwv tsis pub kev yuav khoom thiab kev ntseeg siab ntawm cov neeg siv khoom. Thiab thaum cov neeg siv khoom muaj lub ncoo zoo dua tiv thaiv kev lag luam tom qab ob xyoos ntawm kev txuag nyiaj thoob ntiaj teb, lub cushion yuav tsis txaus los caij kev lag luam tawm, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais.
Thaum cov bulls ntseeg tias lub khw lag luam twb tau them nqi rau kev poob nyiaj poob qis, Wolfe pab neeg xav tias cov khoom lag luam tseem zoo li kim nrog ntau qhov kev ntsuas - thiab lawv tsuas yog yuav tau kim dua li cov kws tshuaj ntsuam pib kho lawv cov nyiaj tau los. Lawv tau kwv yees S&P 500 cov nyiaj khwv tau los ntawm kev ua haujlwm ib feem kom poob tsawg kawg yog 15% ncov mus rau trough.
Qee tus tau pom qhov tsis zoo raws li lub sijhawm yuav khoom, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv cov khoom lag luam uas kim heev. Jefferies kws tshuaj ntsuam, piv txwv li, tig bullish ntawm tech stocks Hnub Monday, hais tias kev sib tw ua lag luam tuaj yeem nthuav tawm rau tech sai sai.
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam Wolfe tau thawb rov qab, hais tias cov nyiaj khwv tau los ntawm kev lag luam yuav ua pov thawj tias muaj kev hloov pauv ib zaug ntxiv thaum kev lag luam nkag mus rau kev lag luam poob qis. Tus yuam sij rau kev yuav cov khoom lag luam cyclical yog yuav thaum lub sijhawm. Txog tam sim no, nws yog "txoj kev ntxov dhau."
Sau rau Sabrina Escobar ntawm [email tiv thaiv]