Nrog qiv tus nqi ticking thiab kev txom nyem looming, qee tus neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev yuav tau txias taw. Ntawm qhov tod tes, cov paj laum yuav luag yuav nce siab dua, yog li koj puas yuav tsum kaw qhov kev cog lus ntawm lub tsev koj nyiam thiab yuav tsev tam sim no?
X
Hu nyuaj, cov kws tshaj lij hais. Vim li cas? "Muaj ntau qhov chaw txav mus los hauv kev yuav tsev," said Long Island, NY-based kws npaj nyiaj txiag pov thawj Peter Palion.
Cov nqi tsev tsev, kev lag luam vaj tse, kev txuag tus kheej, cov qhab nia credit, cov hom phiaj kev nqis peev thiab kev cia siab rau txoj haujlwm yog txhua qhov kev txiav txim siab tseem ceeb.
Lub sijhawm ua lag luam vaj tsev yog qhov nyuaj. Tseem, cov neeg saib xyuas kev lag luam tau hinted tsis ntev los no tias kev lag luam liab-kub vaj tse tuaj yeem txias sai sai thiab tawm tswv yim rau cov neeg yuav khoom.
Palion tau hais tias "Thaum lub caij ntuj sov xaus, kuv xav tias thaum lub caij nplooj zeeg los txog, nws yuav tsis nyob qhov twg li frothy li nws tau ua," Palion tau hais. "Txhua tus neeg uas tuaj yeem tuav thiab tos tuaj yeem ua tau zoo dua."
Kev xav tau ntawm tsev tau dhau los ntawm kev xa khoom hauv xyoo tas los no, ua rau tus nqi siab. Covid thawb tus nqi ntxiv. Txawm hais tias nws nyuaj rau cov neeg ua vaj tsev los qhia cov tsev thaum muaj kev sib kis, qhov kev thov tseem muaj ntau dua, txij li cov neeg tsim vaj tsev yuav tsum tau ncua kev tsim kho. Tab sis kev nce nqi qiv nyiaj hauv ob peb lub hlis dhau los tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam.
Tus nqi nce nqi: Koj Puas Yuav Yuav Tsev Tam Sim No?
Lub Rau Hli 15, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve hiked paj laum los ntawm peb-quarters ntawm lub hauv paus point, qhov siab tshaj plaws nce nyob rau hauv ze li ntawm peb lub xyoo caum. Fed tsis tau teeb tsa tus nqi tsev, tab sis kev hloov pauv hauv Fed tus nqi ncaj qha thawb cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj siab dua lossis qis dua.
30-xyoo tus nqi qiv nyiaj, uas tau hovering nyob ib ncig ntawm 3% thoob plaws xyoo 2021, tam sim no ze rau 6%.
Raws li qhov tshwm sim, Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell tau hais tias, "Kuv xav hais tias yog tias koj yog ib tus neeg yuav tsev, lossis tus tub hluas tab tom nrhiav tsev, koj xav tau rov pib dua."
Nws hloov tawm tias cov neeg siv khoom twb tau nyob rau tib nplooj ntawv. Fannie Mae thaum Lub Rau Hli 7 tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv ntsuam xyuas vaj tsev nyob hauv tebchaws uas pom tias tsuas yog 17% ntawm cov neeg siv khoom qhia tias nws yog lub sijhawm zoo los yuav tsev.
Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae tus lwm thawj thiab tus thawj coj loj ntawm kev lag luam hauv lub Tsib Hlis tau hais tias "Cov neeg siv kev cia siab tias lawv tus kheej cov nyiaj txiag yuav phem dua rau xyoo tom ntej mus txog qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv lub Tsib Hlis kev tshawb fawb, thiab lawv tau hais txog kev txhawj xeeb ntau dua txog kev nyab xeeb ntawm txoj haujlwm," nqe lus.
Cov Nqi Tsev Tseem Kub; Puas Yog Ib qho Slowdown Los?
Ntawm $407,600, tus nqi nruab nrab uas twb muaj lawm-tsev muag khoom tshaj $400,000 thawj zaug hauv lub Tsib Hlis 2022, raws li National Association of Realtors.
Kenneth Leon, tus thawj coj ntawm kev tshawb fawb txog kev ncaj ncees ntawm CFRA Research, hais tias qhov no qhia tau tias nws tseem yog kev sib tw vaj tsev nyob.
"Tseem muaj ntau qhov kev sib tw rau cov tsev uas twb muaj lawm," nws hais rau IBD.
Txawm li cas los xij, kev muag khoom poob qis ib hlis dhau ib hlis hauv peb ntawm plaub cheeb tsam hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas Thiab kev muag khoom xyoo dhau ib xyoo poob hauv tag nrho plaub cheeb tsam. Sab qaum teb sab hnub tuaj yog tib cheeb tsam kom pom qhov nce siab hauv lub Tsib Hlis vs Lub Plaub Hlis.
Zuag qhia tag nrho, kev muag khoom hauv tsev tam sim no poob 3.4% hauv lub Tsib Hlis vs Lub Plaub Hlis. Lawv poob 8.6% piv rau ib xyoos dhau los.
"Kev muag khoom hauv tsev tau rov qab mus rau theem pom hauv 2019 - ua ntej muaj kev sib kis - tom qab ob xyoos ntawm kev ua phem rau neeg phem," NAR Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag Lawrence Yun tau hais hauv nqe lus.
Homebuilder Stocks
CFRA's Leon lees paub tias cov neeg tsim tsev nyob hauv tsev tab tom npaj rau kev qeeb qeeb hauv lub hlis tom ntej. Nws taw tes rau tsis yog tsuas yog cov neeg tsim vaj tsev 'kev pom zoo rau ob peb lub hlis tom ntej tab sis kuj yog cov nqi khoom muag.
Hauv kev hu xov tooj nrog cov tub ua lag luam tsis ntev los no, Lennar (LEN) kev tswj xyuas tau hais tias kev khiav mus rau nws cov zej zog muag tau poob qis heev.
"Txog tam sim no nyob rau lub Rau Hli, kev txiav txim tshiab, kev khiav tsheb, kev txhawb nqa muag thiab kev tshem tawm tau ua phem rau ntau lub khw hauv peb lub khw vim tias muaj kev nce qib ntawm cov nqi qiv nyiaj sai thiab qhov cuam tshuam los ntawm cov xov xwm tsis zoo ntawm kev lag luam," co-CEO Richard Beckwitt tau hais.
KB Tsev (KBH) kuj tau hais tias cov kev txiav txim tshiab tau los ntawm qeeb qeeb.
COO Robert McGibney tau hais tias "Peb tau pom qhov muag muag thaum lub Tsib Hlis raws li kev tshem tawm ntau ntxiv," said COO Robert McGibney hauv lub Rau Hli 22 cov nyiaj tau los hu nrog cov tub ua lag luam. "Lub rau hli ntuj, kuv xav hais tias, tau zoo ib yam li lub Tsib Hlis, qhov uas peb tau pom qee qhov tsis tu ncua ntawm ob peb lub hlis dhau los."
KB Kev Tswj Xyuas Hauv Tsev hais tias tus nqi nce kuj qeeb hauv lub Tsib Hlis, thaum cov kev txhawb siab tuaj tos hauv qee thaj tsam, uas ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev nrhiav kev cog lus.
Lub caij no, raws li kev xa khoom vaj tsev nce siab nrog kev thov, cov nqi ntoo tau poob qis los ntawm txhua lub sijhawm siab ntawm ib puag ncig $ 1,400 ib 1,000 pawg thawj coj hauv lub Peb Hlis mus txog ib ncig ntawm $ 600 nyob rau hnub tsis ntev los no.
"Cov dab neeg tau hloov pauv," nws hais. "Lumber tau nqis rov qab mus rau qib qub."
Cuaj kaum, cov khoom siv hauv tsev tau muaj zog nyob nruab nrab ntawm kev lag luam tsis sib haum xeeb thiab txawm tias lub tsev lag luam softens. Shares ntawm Lennar thiab KB Tsev, uas tau poob qis los ntawm 52-lub lim tiam siab nyob rau hauv lig 2021 thiab thaum ntxov 2022, tau rebounded nyob rau hauv lub lis piam tsis ntev los no, raws li MarketSmith daim ntawv txheeb xyuas.
Kev poob nyiaj txiag tsuas yog nyob ib puag ncig ntawm kaum: Koj Puas Yuav Yuav Tsev Tam Sim No?
Yog tias Asmeskas tab tom mus rau kev lag luam poob qis, cov lus nug tseem yuav phem npaum li cas. Kev lag luam luv luv thiab me me yuav tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam loj rau kev lag luam vaj tsev, Leon hais. Tab sis kev poob qis ntev yuav luag yuav ua rau muaj kev puas tsuaj.
Leon tau hais tias "Qhov zoo yog tias kev ua haujlwm tseem muaj zog," Leon hais.
Tab sis qhov ntawd kuj tuaj yeem hloov pauv, raws li xov xwm ntawm kev tawm haujlwm tau nkag mus hauv lub lis piam tsis ntev los no. Rau cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev, qhov ntawd txhais tau tias tsis yog tsuas yog yuav tsum ntsuas qhov cuam tshuam nyiaj txiag ntawm kev poob haujlwm, tab sis kuj tseem muaj peev xwm txav mus lees txais qhov kev thov tshiab.
Kev yuav tsev sawv cev rau kev cog lus loj, Palion hais.
Nws hais tias "Nws tsis yog ib yam uas koj tuaj yeem taug kev yooj yim ntawm lub hlis tom ntej vim tias tej yam hloov pauv," nws hais. "Xav txog kev ruaj ntseg ntawm koj txoj haujlwm thiab tsev neeg qhov xwm txheej."
Rau txhua tus neeg uas ntsib ib-rau-peb lub sijhawm ntawm kev tsiv mus rau lwm qhov ntawm lub tebchaws hauv peb mus rau tsib xyoos, Palion qhia ua tib zoo ntsuas qhov kev xaiv xauj tsev.
Koj tuaj yeem them taus tiag tiag npaum li cas?
Cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj yog ib qho tseem ceeb hauv kev xam qhov koj tuaj yeem them taus yuav. Yog li yog cov nyiaj tau los, nyiaj khaws cia ntau npaum li cas koj tau socked, koj qhov qhab nia credit thiab peev xwm los them rau lwm cov nqi rov ua dua thiab tsis xav txog ntawm kev muaj tsev.
Ib txoj hauv kev los txiav txim siab qhov ntawd, yog xav txog NAR lub quarterly vaj tsev indexable. Cov cov ntaub ntawv tsis ntev los no qhia tias cov nyiaj them txhua hli rau cov tswv tsev nyob rau thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022 yog $1,383, sawv cev rau 18.7% ntawm tsev neeg cov nyiaj tau los. Qhov ntawd piv nrog Q4 2021 qhov nyiaj hli nruab nrab ntawm $ 1,237, suav nrog 17% ntawm tsev neeg cov nyiaj tau los.
Feem ntau hais lus, 20% kev them nqi yog qhov zoo tagnrho, Palion hais. Tab sis nco ntsoov tias muab tag nrho koj cov nyiaj khaws cia rau hauv kev them nqi tsis zoo. Kev kho thiab se vaj tse tuaj yeem nkag mus rau cov neeg yuav khoom thawj zaug, feem ntau muab tso rau hauv cov nuj nqis tob dua li qhov lawv xav tau.
Lwm txoj hauv kev los txwv cov nqi tsev-yuav yog txhawm rau txhawb koj qhov qhab nia credit. Qhov siab dua koj qhov qhab nia credit, tus nqi qiv qis dua.
Nrog nce nqi tsev qiv nyiaj, cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev yuav xaiv tos me ntsis, them nyiaj ntau dua rau lwm cov nuj nqis, xws li credit-card tshuav nyiaj li cas thiab qiv tsheb, yog li txhawb lawv cov qhab nia credit.
Koj Yuav Tsum Yuav Vaj Tsev Nyob qhov twg?
Hauv lub ntiaj teb zoo meej, qhov chaw koj xav nyob thiab qhov koj tuaj yeem siv tau zoo kawg nkaus. Tab sis qhov ntawd tsis yog ib txwm muaj. Yog li ntawd, qee cov neeg yos hav zoov hauv tsev xaiv txav mus rau qhov pheej yig dua ntawm lub tebchaws.
Raws li qhov tsis ntev los no NAR data, Sab Hnub Poob yog thaj chaw kim tshaj plaws los ua tus tswv tsev. Qhov nruab nrab cov nyiaj them txhua hli yog nyob ib ncig ntawm $ 2,200 thiab suav txog ntau dua 28% ntawm tsev neeg cov nyiaj tau los, nrog rau tsev neeg nruab nrab noj nyob ib ncig ntawm $ 93,000. Tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm ib lub tsev uas twb muaj lawm nyob rau sab hnub poob yog yuav luag $526,000.
Lub Midwest yog thaj chaw pheej yig tshaj plaws los yuav tsev, nrog cov nyiaj them txhua hli nyob ib ncig ntawm $ 1,200, suav nrog kwv yees li 17% ntawm tsev neeg cov nyiaj tau los.
Koj Yuav Tsum Yuav Rental Property Tam Sim No?
Kev yuav vaj tse peev yog "tag nrho lwm lub pob ntawm ciab," Palion hais.
Nws tau hais tias "Muaj qhov sib txawv loj ntawm cov peev txheej peev thiab qhov chaw nyob thawj," nws hais.
Kev yuav ib lub tsev uas koj yuav nyob yog xav paub ntxiv txog kev txaus siab rau tus kheej nyiam, Palion piav qhia.
“Ib qho peev txheej yuav tsum yog thawj zaug thiab qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntawm kev txiav txim siab ua lag luam; Koj them nyiaj npaum li cas rau lub tsev no thiab tus nqi xauj tsev uas koj tuaj yeem sau tau li cas? nws hais.
Lub sijhawm thiab nyiaj txiag koj yuav txuas ntxiv mus nqis peev hauv vaj tsev xauj tom qab kev yuav khoom kuj tseem muaj qhov sib txawv loj. Tus tswv tsev xauj tsev txhais tau hais tias koj yuav tsum koom nrog cov ntsiab lus niaj hnub ntawm kev tswj cov cuab yeej rau qee qhov, txawm tias koj tau cog lus tawm ib qho loj ntawm kev tswj hwm.
Palion tau hais tias "Koj yuav tsum muaj peev xwm hu thaum ib tag hmo txog lub chav dej ntws tawm," Palion tau hais.
Yog tias koj xav ua tus neeg ua lag luam tag nrho, xav txog kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse kev ntseeg siab, lossis REITs, hloov Palion qhia. REITs yog cov khoom sib sau uas ntiav cov kws tshaj lij thiab ua lag luam zoo li lwm yam khoom lag luam.
Txawm hais tias koj tab tom txiav txim siab yuav qhov chaw nyob hauv tsev lossis ib qho cuab yeej peev, Palion muaj ib qho lus qhia kawg: “Chill out; coj nws yooj yim. Tsis txhob txiav txim siab ua pob. "
Ua raws li Adelia Cellini Linecker ntawm Twitter @IB_Adelia.
KOJ UA LI CAS:
Xav Tau Txais Nyiaj Tau sai thiab Zam loj los ploj? Sim ua SwingTrader
IBD Digital: Txhim Kho IBD Daim Ntawv Teev Khoom Tseem Ceeb, Cov Cuab Yeej Thiab Cuam Tshuam Hnub no
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/personal-finance/should-you-buy-a-house-now-experts-weigh-in-on-pros-and-cons/?src =A00220&yptr=yahoo