(Bloomberg) - Txoj kev sib tw hauv cov khoom lag luam tseem tsis tau dhau mus, raws li Morgan Stanley cov kws tshaj lij, uas pom cov peev txheej rau ob qho tib si Asmeskas thiab European cov peev txheej los kho ntxiv thaum muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntawm kev loj hlob qeeb.
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Tus kws tshaj lij tus kws tshaj lij Michael Wilson, uas tau ua tsis ncaj ncees rau kaum xyoo ntev ntawm cov nyuj khiav hauv Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam, tau hais hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom tias txawm tias tom qab tsib lub lis piam ntawm kev poob qis, S&P 500 tseem tsis raug nqi rau ib puag ncig tam sim no ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve nruj txoj cai rau hauv. kev loj hlob qeeb.
Raws li nws qhov xwm txheej ntawm "hluav taws thiab dej khov," nws cia siab tias S&P 500 yuav swb nyob rau lub sijhawm ze ua ntej nce mus rau 3,900 cov ntsiab lus rau lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav tom ntej - uas tseem yog kwv yees li 2.5% qis dua tam sim no - ntawm cov nyiaj tau los qeeb thiab nce volatility.
"Peb tseem ntseeg tias US kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees tsis raug nqi rau qhov kev poob qis hauv kev loj hlob los ntawm qib tam sim no," Wilson tau hais hauv tsab ntawv rau hnub Tuesday. "Peb cia siab tias qhov tsis sib haum xeeb yuav nyob twj ywm siab dua li 12 lub hlis tom ntej." Nws pom zoo kom muaj kev tiv thaiv nrog kev hnyav hnyav hauv kev saib xyuas kev noj qab haus huv, khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab khoom vaj khoom tsev.
Kev hu xov tooj los ntawm ib qho ntawm Wall Street lub suab nrov tshaj plaws yog qhov sib txawv rau qee tus kws tshaj lij suav nrog Peter Oppenheimer ntawm Goldman Sachs Group Inc., uas tau hais rau hnub Tuesday tias qhov muag muag muaj zog hauv cov khoom lag luam hauv lub lis piam dhau los tau tsim cov hauv kev yuav khoom, nrog rau lub taub hau xws li inflation thiab hawkish central banks twb nqi nyob rau hauv.
Tom qab capping lawv qhov ntev tshaj plaws ntawm kev poob txhua lub lis piam txij li xyoo 2011 lub lim tiam dhau los, US cov peev txheej tau nce me ntsis rau hnub Tuesday. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev rov qab los tsis tau kav ntev thiab yav tom ntej tau tshem tawm cov txiaj ntsig thiab poob rau hnub Wednesday tom qab cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias Asmeskas cov neeg siv khoom tau nce ntau dua li kev kwv yees hauv lub Plaub Hlis.
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Berenberg cov kws tshaj lij kuj tau siv lub suab ceeb toom, hais tias txawm hais tias nws yog "kev ntxias" los yuav qhov poob, US cov khoom lag luam tseem pheej saib kim thaum muaj kev kub ntxhov.
S&P 500 tej zaum yuav muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev poob qis ntxiv mus rau 3,600 cov ntsiab lus - nqis 10% los ntawm hnub Tuesday kaw - ua ntej mus txog qib kev txhawb nqa tseem ceeb hauv keeb kwm. Lub 200-lub lim tiam txav nruab nrab txij li xyoo 1986 tau pom US tus qauv ntsuas rov qab thaum txhua lub lag luam dais loj, tshwj tsis yog rau cov npuas tech thiab cov teeb meem nyiaj txiag thoob ntiaj teb.
Nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws Europe, Morgan Stanley's Graham Secker tau ceev faj ntawm thaj av cov khoom vaj khoom tsev thiab cia siab tias lawv yuav poob ntxiv ntxiv rau qhov teeb meem kev lag luam nyuaj, kev ua tsov rog hauv Ukraine thiab kev pheej hmoo ntawm cov nyiaj tau los txo qis hauv ib nrab xyoo ntawm kev poob qis.
"Cia li ua kom yooj yim - qhov macro backdrop yog qhov nyuaj heev rau cov khoom lag luam," Secker tau hais hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau hnub Wednesday, ntxiv tias kev txo qis hauv Lavxias kev xa tawm roj yog qhov teeb meem loj tshaj plaws. "Txawm hais tias qhov kev xav ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam muaj tsawg thiab qhov kev ntsuas kev ncaj ncees yog qhov tsim nyog, qhov nyuaj ntawm qhov kev pom zoo yuav ua rau cov khoom lag luam qis dua lub hlis tom ntej."
Secker txiav nws qhov kev ntsuam xyuas ntawm European mining thiab kev tsim kho thiab cov khoom lag luam rau qhov nruab nrab thiab hais tias nws yog "sai dhau" txhawm rau ntxiv qhov cuam tshuam rov qab rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv, thaum nqa zaub mov, dej haus thiab luam yeeb sib faib rau nruab nrab. Morgan Stanley cov tswv yim yog rog dhau ntawm FTSE 100 thiab nyiam kev tiv thaiv dhau ntawm kev sib tw, nyob qhov hnyav tshaj tus nqi sib piv nrog kev loj hlob nrog kev tiv thaiv qaij.
Cov kws tshaj lij ntawm Barclays Plc kuj tau hais tias kev lag luam kev lag luam hauv Tebchaws Europe tab tom tig kev tiv thaiv ntau dua ntawm kev loj hlob qeeb thiab txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag ntau dua.
(Hloov tshiab nrog niaj hnub no US CPI cov ntaub ntawv nyob rau hauv thib rau kab lus)
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