Ib tug tub rog Lavxias teb sab Kamaz tsheb, rhuav tshem nyob rau sab qaum teb Ukraine.
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Cov tub ceev xwm Lavxias tau pib sib sau ua ntej ntawm 300,000 tus neeg sau xov xwm Kremlin cia siab tias yuav ua rau muaj kev poob qis - 80,000 lossis ntau dua cov neeg tuag thiab raug mob - cov tub rog Lavxias tau raug kev txom nyem nyob rau thawj xya lub hlis ntawm kev ua tsov rog loj dua hauv Ukraine.
Hauv ntawv, 300,000 tus neeg ua haujlwm tshiab yog… a ntau ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm tshiab. Cov tub rog Lavxias tau mus ua rog hauv Ukraine nrog tsuas yog 900,000 tus tub rog nquag ntawm nws cov yob, tom qab tag nrho. Tab sis qhov kev txhawb nqa tam sim no, txawm tias nws mus zoo-thiab ua kom meej, nws yuav tsis-Yuav luag tsis tuaj yeem tsim ntau yam ntawm kev tawm tsam lub zog.
Tawm ntawm qhov tsis zoo ntawm cov neeg sau ntawv no - lawv laus dua thiab tsis haum ntau dua li cov tub rog xav tau - nrog rau cov tub rog Lavxias tsis txaus ntawm cov tub ceev xwm thiab tub ceev xwm los coj lawv thiab niaj hnub riam phom rau lawv, muaj teeb meem tsheb thauj khoom.
Cov tub rog Lavxias lub hli dhau los tau khiav tawm ntawm cov tsheb thauj khoom txhim khu kev qha. Tsis muaj tsheb thauj khoom, cov tub rog tau khi rau nws cov railheads.
Qhov zoo tshaj plaws Kremlin tuaj yeem cia siab rau, kom deb li deb tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev sib tw mus, yog txhawm rau txhim kho cov tub rog uas twb muaj lawm nrog ntau tus tub ntxhais kawm tsis tau kawm, tsis muaj tub rog cov tub rog. tej zaum yuav muaj peev xwm zaum hauv ib lub trench tsis deb ntawm lub tsheb ciav hlau depot thiab tua tsis raug ntawm cov tub rog Ukrainian tawm tsam lawv, tab sis leej twg tsis muaj peev xwm los tawm tsam lawv tus kheej. Attacks cov tub rog Lavxias teb sab battered logistical brigades tsuas tsis tuaj yeem txhawb nqa.
Cov tub rog Lavxias muaj ob peb lub tsheb thauj khoom txawm tias ua ntej ua tsov rog. Tsuas yog 11 lub logistical brigades, txhua tus muaj nyob ib ncig ntawm 400 lub tsheb thauj khoom, txhawb nqa tag nrho lub zog pem hauv ntej. Tsis yog txhua tus ntawm cov tub rog no tau ua haujlwm tag nrho. Tsis yog tag nrho lawv cov tsheb thauj khoom tau ua haujlwm. Cov tub ceev xwm kuj tseem vam khom ntau ntawm kev pab los ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm tsawg tshaj li cov neeg ua haujlwm ua haujlwm siab.
cov fragility ntawm tub rog lub tsheb thauj khoom infrastructure ua rau muaj kev nkag siab thaum koj xav txog Kremlin qhov kev cia siab ib txwm muaj rau kev tsheb ciav hlau rau kev ua tub rog. Nws yog kev cai nyob rau hauv Lavxias teb sab tub rog rau yuav luag tag nrho cov khoom siv txav mus rau tsheb ciav hlau. Lub logistical brigades 'lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb yog kos cov khoom siv los ntawm cov chaw tsheb ciav hlau thiab thauj lawv los ntawm txoj kev mus rau pem hauv ntej cov tub rog.
Lub tsheb ciav hlau-raws li logistics nyob rau hauv lem ua rau kev nkag siab thaum koj xav txog dab tsi cov tub rog Lavxias teb sab ib txwm puas. Ib qho, nws tiv thaiv Russia, lub hom phiaj uas tsis xav tau kev sib ntaus sib tua kom mus deb heev ntawm Lavxias teb sab infrastructure.
Ob, nws ua rau Moscow txoj cai txawv teb chaws raws lub teb chaws ciam teb. Hauv lus Askiv dawb, nws pab tsoomfwv Lavxias thab plaub lub tebchaws qub Soviet-Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Baltic xeev, Ukraine. Kev ua tsov rog me me tawm tsam cov teb chaws tsis muaj zog nyob hauv ciam teb Lavxias kuj tsis tas yuav cov tub rog Lavxias mus deb ntawm lawv lub teb chaws txoj kev tsheb ciav hlau.
Lub tsheb thauj khoom tsis txaus tsis yog teeb meem rau cov tub rog Lavxias kom txog thaum nws sim nkag mus tob rau hauv cov yeeb ncuab thaj chaw. Qhov twg, tau kawg, yog raws nraim li cov tub rog tau sim ua thaum nws pib ua ntau qhov kev tawm tsam rau hauv Ukraine pib thaum Lub Ob Hlis lig. Qhov kev quab yuam ntawm Kyiv tshwj xeeb ua rau Lavxias teb sab tub rog dov ib puas mais lossis ntau dua los ntawm lub tsheb loj hauv Gomel, hauv Belarus.
Txhua Lavxias teb sab tub rog nyob ib ncig ntawm Kyiv - thiab muaj ob peb -xav tau kev tuaj xyuas txhua hnub los ntawm ze li 300 lub tsheb thauj khoom taug kev raws txoj kev loj ntawm Gomel thiab pem hauv ntej. Ukrainian infantry, artillery thiab drones ua hauj lwm ceev ntawm cov convoys, rhuav tshem ntau pua lub tsheb thauj khoom thiab tua tau ntau txhiab tus tub rog txhawb nqa.
So tau kawg Kev tsim txom Kiev ua tsis tiav tom qab ib hlis xwb. Nws khiav tawm ntawm cov khoom siv vim nws khiav tawm ntawm cov tsheb thauj khoom.
Lavxias teb sab tsheb poob txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv raws li kev ua tsov ua rog rub rau. Independent kws tshuaj ntsuam tau lees paus ze li ntawm 1,700 lub tsheb puas lossis raug ntes tawm ntawm cov khoom muag ua ntej ntawm ib ncig ntawm 4,400.
Yog lawm, Kremlin tau hloov qee qhov kev poob ntawd nrog kev sib xyaw ntawm cov tsheb thauj neeg pej xeem thiab heev qub tub rog qauv nws rub tawm ntawm lub sijhawm ntev cia. Tab sis tsis muaj kev tsis sib haum xeeb tias cov tub rog Lavxias tsis muaj peev xwm thauj khoom zoo ib yam rau kev tawm tsam ntev tshaj qhov kev ncua deb - tsis yog lub peev xwm ntawd yog txhua yam tseem ceeb los pib.
Tom qab Ukraine txoj kev vam meej counteroffensive nyob ib ncig ntawm Kharkiv thiab lub tom ntej Lavxias teb sab kev tawm tsam los ntawm sab qaum teb sab hnub tuaj, ob lub ntsiab lus ntawm kev sib txuas lus tseem ceeb rau Lavxias teb sab quab yuam nyob rau hauv Ukraine - los ntawm Rostov-on-Don sab hnub poob mus rau sab hnub tuaj Ukraine lub Donbas cheeb tsam thiab los ntawm nyob rau hauv Crimea sab qaum teb mus rau Kherson thiab nyob. Melitopol. Ob qho tib si feem ntau yog nyob ntawm txoj kev tsheb ciav hlau.
Raws li cov tub rog Lavxias tau nthuav tawm nws cov tub rog tshiab ntawm cov neeg tsis txaus siab, nws yuav tsum muaj peev xwm txav tau cov tub rog hloov pauv thiab lawv cov cuab yeej siv tsis tu ncua mus rau sab qab teb thiab sab hnub tuaj, qhov twg cov tub rog tsis zoo thiab cov tub rog tuaj yeem nqus tau lawv.
Tab sis cov battalions thiab brigades twb tau khi rau lawv railheads vim tsis muaj tsheb thauj khoom. Lawv yog, nce, tiv thaiv lub zog. Ib tug influx ntawm unenthusiast conscripts yuav tsis hloov qhov ntawd.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/23/russias-war-mobilization-is-pointless-as-long-as-its-army-lacks-trucks/