Lavxias teb sab Trenches nyob rau yav qab teb Ukraine yog luv dhau los nres ib tug Ukrainian Attack

Nws tau peb lub lis piam txij li Ukrainian tub rog tau yuam cov tub rog Lavxias hla tus dej dav Dnipro nyob rau sab qab teb Ukraine, liberating Kherson lub nroog thiab khoov lub arc ntawm Russia lub cuaj-hli-laus kev ua tsov ua rog dav dua rau Ukraine.

Kev sib ntaus sib tua nyob rau sab qab teb tau qeeb txij thaum ntawd los. Tab sis lub calm belies lub escalation tom ntej. Cov Russians tab tom khawb hauv. Thiab cov Ukrainians tab tom tshawb nrhiav qhov tsis muaj zog hauv Russia cov kab tshiab tiv thaiv.

Cov chaw tsis muaj zog twb muaj pov thawj. "Lub teb chaws Lavxias teb sab fortifications nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Kherson yog ... optimized tiv thaiv kev tsav tsheb nyob rau hauv txoj kev thiab yuav yooj yim heev rau cov hnab ntawv nyob rau hauv qhib lub teb chaws," lub Washington, DC-based Institute for the Study of War tau sau tseg hauv kev kawm ntxaws ntawm Russia tiv thaiv nyob rau yav qab teb Ukraine.

Trenches thiab tank-duab yog sprouting nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Kherson Oblast ntawm lub Dnipro lub sab laug bank. Tab sis cov fortifications tsis tsim ntev, unbreaked kab. Hloov chaw, lawv tsuas hla txoj kev loj uas khiav sab qab teb los ntawm Dnipro mus rau Lavxias teb sab-nyob Crimean Peninsula. Qhov ntawd yog ib qho kos npe rau foreboding rau lub depleted Lavxias teb sab tub rog nyob rau sab qab teb.

Ukrainian mechanized rog twb tau ua tiav ntawm kev hla kev ntxhib av. Qhov ntawd yog li cas lawv tau nce mus rau sab qaum teb Kherson pib thaum lub Cuaj Hli. Yog lawm, Ukraine yog txias thiab av nkos tam sim no - tsawg dua li cov xwm txheej zoo rau kev hla tebchaws. Tab sis hauv av yuav tau khov kho vim qhov kub thiab txias tseem poob rau lub asthiv tom ntej. Tsis muaj laj thawj xav tias, thaum Ukrainians hla Dnipro, lawv yuav tsis rov coj mus rau qhov chaw qhib.

Tactically, cov Ukrainians tuaj yeem hla txoj haujlwm nruj tshaj plaws ntawm Lavxias los ntawm kev tawm ntawm txoj kev. Ua haujlwm, kuj tseem muaj cib fim rau cov Ukrainians kom zam lub densest Lavxias teb sab fortifications.

Souring satellite imagery, ISW cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau txheeb xyuas ntau yam tshiab ntawm Lavxias teb sab av ua haujlwm nyob rau sab hnub tuaj ntawm ntug dej hiav txwv Kinburn Peninsula, xuab zeb ntiv tes ntawm av curling hla lub qhov ncauj ntawm Dnipro los ntawm tus dej sab laug ntug dej.

Cov av ntawd ua rau muaj kev nkag siab. Ukrainian commandos yuav muaj nyob rau ntawm Kinburn Peninsula tsawg kawg yog ob peb lub lis piam tam sim no. Cov kev tiv thaiv Lavxias tshiab tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau Ukrainian sim dov sab hnub tuaj ntawm Kinburn txhawm rau tsim lub tsev nyob ntawm Dnipro lub txhab nyiaj sab laug.

Tab sis Lavxias teb sab fortifications yog thinner nyob rau sab nraud ntawm Kherson Oblast ntawm ciam teb nrog Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau ntev tau xav txog Ukrainian kev tawm tsam hauv Zaporizhzhia- ib qho uas tuaj yeem tig sab xis thiab mus tom qab thawj kab ntawm cov tub rog Lavxias ntawm Dnipro lub txhab nyiaj sab laug.

Qhov tsis muaj kev tiv thaiv tseem ceeb ntawm Zaporizhzhia sab ntawm Kherson tuaj yeem qhia tau tias cov kws tshaj lij Lavxias tau txo qis kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev tawm tsam Ukrainian raws li qhov no. Ntawm chav kawm, nws kuj yog ua tau cov Russians tab tom npaj rau kev tiv thaiv mobile. Poob rov qab los ntawm lub fort mus rau lub fort, nyob ua ntej ntawm Ukrainians thiab los ntshav rau txhua mais lawv nce mus. Yog hais tias qhov kev tiv thaiv mobile no zoo li paub, nws yog vim tias qhov ntawd yog li cas cov tub rog Ukrainian tau swb ntau dua li ob peb qhov kev tawm tsam Lavxias.

"Cov tub rog Lavxias tab tom teeb tsa cov xwm txheej rau kev tiv thaiv ntev nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Kherson Oblast," ISW sau tseg. Tab sis qhov kev tiv thaiv ntev ntev no yuav tsis tiv thaiv kev tsim tsawg kawg ib qho "chaw nyob hauv Ukrainian" nyob rau sab laug ntawm tus dej Dnipro.

Yog li txawm tias Ukrainians tsis tau txais ntau hauv av hauv lawv thawj qhov kev tawm tsam, lawv tuaj yeem poob rov qab rau lawv qhov chaw nyob, rov sib koom ua ke thiab sim dua. Txoj cai ntawm Lavxias teb sab rog sab qab teb ntawm Dnipro hais lus rau Kremlin qhov kev cia siab. Raws li thawj lub caij ntuj no tag nrho ntawm kev ua tsov ua rog dav zuj zus tuaj, cov thawj coj Lavxias xav kom nyob twj ywm ntawm kev tiv thaiv. Thiab lawv tej zaum kuj cia siab tias yuav pauv qhov chaw rau lub sijhawm.

Cov lus nug qhib yog dab tsi Kremlin vam tias yuav yuav nrog lub sijhawm ntawd. Nws yog qhov ua tau rau cov tub rog Lavxias tab tom npaj lwm qhov kev quab yuam kom muaj peev xwm ntau pua txhiab tus txiv neej. "Yog tias cov tub rog Lavxias xav kom Ukrainian rog yuav siv sij hawm ntau lub hlis los rhuav tshem lawv cov kev tiv thaiv hauv cheeb tsam [sab qab teb], lawv tuaj yeem xav kom muaj kev sib koom ua ke ntxiv lossis cov tub rog kawm ib nrab tuaj txog rau lub sijhawm kom nres thiab tej zaum yuav thim rov qab Ukrainian counteroffensive," ISW piav qhia .

Tab sis qhov kev cia siab ntawd cuam tshuam rau qhov kev xav loj heev - qhov ntawd neej yav tom ntej conscripts yuav zoo dua tam sim no cov tub txib.

300,000 tus txiv neej lub Kremlin tau tsim rov qab rau lub Cuaj Hli, thiab nrawm mus rau pem hauv ntej yam tsis muaj kev cob qhia ntau, tsis tiv thaiv Ukrainian rog los ntawm kev tawm tsam loj heev ntawm lawv lub teb chaws pib tib lub hlis. Vim li cas lwm ob peb puas txhiab tus neeg sau ntawv tsis txaus ntseeg ua rau muaj qhov sib txawv yog tias cov neeg Ukrainians pib tawm tsam thoob plaws Dnipro thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis lossis Lub Ib Hlis?