Cov tub rog Lavxias yuav ntsib cov teeb meem kev nyab xeeb ntawm thaj chaw nyob hauv Ukraine

Thaum lub sij hawm lawv thawj ntxeem tau ntawm Ukraine, lub Lavxias teb sab kev ua txhaum tsis ua txhaum los ntawm ib tug staunch Ukrainian tiv thaiv. Txawm hais tias cov Russians tau rov ua pawg thiab tau txeeb ib feem ntawm thaj av Donbas nyob rau sab qab teb ntawm Ukraine, cov dej ntws ntawm kev ua tsov ua rog tsis tas yuav tig mus rau Lavxias. Thaum lawv ntsib kev tawm tsam hnyav los ntawm Ukrainians, cov tub rog Lavxias qhov kev sib tw loj tshaj plaws yuav yog nyob rau hauv kev ruaj ntseg cov cheeb tsam uas lawv tau coj, tub rog raug xa mus ua haujlwm ruaj ntseg.

Cov kev ua haujlwm ruaj khov no twb tab tom ua hauv Lavxias-nyob Ukraine. Lub Kremlin tau qhia tias lawv xav tias yuav tuav "referendum” nyob rau hauv cov cheeb tsam no los annex lawv mus rau hauv Russia nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli Ntuj 11. Meanwhile, Ukrainian partisans nyob rau hauv cov occupied territories yog tawm tsam txoj hauj lwm, nrog rau kev rhuav tshem Lavxias teb sab nom tswv tsev nyob rau hauv Melitopol thiab Mariupol. Cov tub rog Lavxias tau koom nrog hauv kev ua haujlwm ruaj khov kom txhawb nqa kev tawm suab thiab tawm tsam cov neeg koom nrog Ukrainian. Muab qhov xwm txheej ntawm cov tub rog Lavxias, lawv yuav ua tsis tiav hauv cov haujlwm no.

Hauv paus, cov tub rog Lavxias tsis tau teeb tsa los ua haujlwm ruaj khov. Lub hauv paus ntsiab lus ntawm cov tub rog Lavxias teb sab qauv yog lub Pawg Tub rog Tactical (BTGs), uas muaj kwv yees li 800 tus tub rog, 10 lub tank, 40 infantry sib ntaus sib tua tsheb, thiab ib tug loj npaum li cas ntawm artillery. Cov koog no vam khom rau lawv cov tso tsheb hlau luam thiab cov phom loj, uas tuaj yeem tso cov foob pob hnyav ntawm qhov ntev ntev. Cov tub rog Lavxias tam sim no tab tom sib koom ua ke BTGs tshiab los ntawm cov neeg tuaj yeem pab dawb, cov tub rog, thiab cov seem ntawm cov qub BTGs. Txawm hais tias qee qhov ntawm cov koog no tau npaj los tawm tsam Ukrainian Army, ntau tus tau mus rau hauv thaj chaw nyob rau hauv kev ua haujlwm ruaj khov.

Ib qho ntawm qhov nyuaj ntawm kev ua haujlwm ruaj khov yog tias nws koom nrog kev sib ntaus hauv nroog, uas feem ntau xav tau cov tub rog infantry. Tsawg tshaj li ib feem peb ntawm cov tub rog nyob rau hauv BTG yog infantry. Txhawm rau kov yeej qhov teeb meem no, cov tub rog Lavxias tau tso siab rau cov tub rog uas muaj npe lossis cov tub rog tiv thaiv los txhawb lawv cov tub rog tub rog. Txawm li cas los xij, cov chav no yog qhov tsis sib haum xeeb thiab tsis muaj teeb meem. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov pov thawj tsis ntev los no qhia tau hais tias qee qhov ntawm cov tub rog no tuaj yeem nyob ntawm yuav muaj tseeb nrog lub Kremlin.

Lwm qhov teeb meem yog tias cov tub rog Lavxias siv ntau yam phom loj, txawm tias nyob rau hauv kev ua haujlwm ruaj khov. Artillery, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov khoom qub uas muaj nyob rau hauv BTGs piecemealed, tsis tas yuav raug, thiab lawv zoo li yuav ntaus cov neeg pej xeem lub hom phiaj nyob rau hauv cov nroog loj. Qhov no nyob rau hauv lem tuaj yeem rhuav tshem cov txheej txheem tseem ceeb thiab ua rau muaj kev ntxhov siab ntawm cov pej xeem hauv zos, yog li txo qis kev nyab xeeb ntawm thaj av.

Nrog rau cov kev txwv no, cov tub rog Lavxias, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog ua ke nrog cov pab pawg tub rog, siv kev ntshai thiab kev hem thawj los ua kom cov pej xeem hauv zos. Nyob rau hauv Syria, cov tub rog Lavxias indiscriminately raug rho tawm haujlwm ntawm ob qho tib si pej xeem thiab tub rog lub hom phiaj nrog lub hom phiaj ntawm hem ib tug neeg kom tsis txhob tawm tsam lawv. Nyob rau hauv Georgia thiab Crimea, cov tub rog Lavxias teb sab txoj haujlwm tsis kam lees cov kev pabcuam tseem ceeb rau tib neeg tshwj tsis yog lawv tau tso tseg lawv cov qub neeg pej xeem thiab tau txais ntawv hla tebchaws Lavxias. Nws zoo nkaus li cov Russians tau ua raws li cov qauv zoo sib xws hauv feem ntawm Ukraine uas lawv nyob.

Cov txheej txheem no feem ntau tsis zoo rau cov tub rog Lavxias. Piv txwv li, thaum lub sijhawm lawv txoj haujlwm kaum xyoo ntawm Afghanistan, cov tub rog Soviet tom qab ntawd poob 15,000 tus tub rog, piv rau 2,500 tus neeg Asmeskas tuag tshaj nees nkaum xyoo. Hauv lawv cov haujlwm tsis ntev los no hauv Syria, Chechnya, thiab Georgia, lawv txoj haujlwm ruaj khov tau ua rau muaj teeb meem rau tib neeg, teeb meem neeg tawg rog, thiab kev cem thoob ntiaj teb. Tsis tas li ntawd, tsis muaj ib qho xwm txheej twg cov neeg Lavxias tau ua tiav lawv qhov kev xav tau kawg.

Cov cheeb tsam uas nyob hauv Ukrainian yuav zoo li nyuaj rau cov neeg Lavxias los tswj dua Syria, Chechnya, lossis Georgia. Ib qho kev tshawb fawb pom tias 77 feem pua ntawm Ukrainians nyob rau hauv cheeb tsam tswj los ntawm Russians tsis txhawb txoj hauj lwm. Lwm tus daim ntawv ntsuam xyuas los ntawm ua ntej ua tsov ua rog qhia tau hais tias ib tug loj feem ntawm Ukrainians, nrog rau cov neeg ntawm Lavxias teb sab haiv neeg, tau txaus siab los tuav caj npab tawm tsam Lavxias teb sab occupiers. Cov neeg koom nrog Ukrainian no yuav nkag mus rau cov riam phom siab heev uas tau muab los ntawm Ukrainian tub rog thiab los ntawm cov zej zog thoob ntiaj teb. Muab lub geography ntawm cheeb tsam, nws yuav nyuaj rau cov Russians kom tsis txhob no cov cuab yeej ntws. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov neeg Ukrainians tau qhia lawv tus kheej kom paub txog kev siv tshuab, siv kev lag luam thev naus laus zis rau kev ua tub rog.

Lub caij no, cov tub rog Lavxias tau depleted lawv cov peev txheej - ob qho tib si cov neeg ua haujlwm thiab khoom siv - ntawm kev cuam tshuam ntawm Ukraine. Tsis ntev los no txav mus rau mobilize nws tiv thaiv industrial puag thiab tsim cov "cov neeg ua haujlwm pab dawb" yuav daws qee qhov teeb meem no. Txawm li cas los xij, ntau ntawm cov peev txheej no yuav raug faib los tawm tsam Ukrainian counter-offensive. Cov neeg ua haujlwm mus ua haujlwm ruaj ntseg yuav raug cob qhia me me los tsis muaj kev cob qhia hauv nroog lossis kev tawm tsam. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov Russians yuav tsis muaj cov khoom siv raw thiab cov peev txheej tsim nyog los tsim kho cov feem ntawm Ukraine uas lawv tau rhuav tshem hauv kev kov yeej. Yog tias tsis rov kho cov txheej txheem tseem ceeb, lawv yuav ua rau muaj kev tawm tsam ntxiv.

Yog tias Ukrainian counteroffensive ua tsis tiav thiab cov Russians ntxiv ib feem ntawm sab qab teb Ukraine, kev ua tsov ua rog nyob deb dhau rau Russians. Raws li pom los ntawm Asmeskas cov tub rog ua haujlwm hauv Iraq thiab Afghanistan, cov neeg Lavxias yuav zoo li tau cog lus rau lawv cov tub rog kom nyob hauv thaj chaw nyob ntawm Ukraine rau ntau lub sijhawm. Muab lawv cov tswv yim thiab cov koom haum, lawv yuav muaj ntau yam kev sib tw hauv kev ruaj ntseg hauv cheeb tsam thiab tej zaum yuav tsis tau txais kev tswj hwm tag nrho ntawm cheeb tsam.

Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/vikrammittal/2022/08/15/russian-military-will-face-challenges-securing-occupied-territory-in-ukraine/