Cov neeg taug kev booking mus ncig ua si khoom kim heev rau Tebchaws Europe tsis tau muab tso tseg thaum tsov rog Ukraine, hais tias tus kws pab tswv yim mus ncig Jessica Griscavage ntawm Runway Travel. Duab, Grignan, Fabkis.
Westend61 | Westend61 | Getty Dluab
Raws li Lavxias teb sab kev cuam tshuam ntawm Ukraine txuas ntxiv tsis pom qhov kawg, cov neeg Asmeskas cov phiaj xwm so haujlwm nyob sab Europe cuam tshuam li cas? Nws nyob ntawm tus neeg koj nug, tab sis tag nrho cov lus teb zoo li dag ib qho ntawm "tsis yog" thiab "me ntsis."
Taug kev app Hopper tau sau tseg tias qhov poob hauv kev tshawb nrhiav dav hlau rau Tebchaws Europe thaum ntxov Lub Ob Hlis, nrog rau kev nce nqi hauv huab cua. Txawm li cas los xij, ib tus kws pab tswv yim txog kev mus ncig hais tias nws pom tsis muaj qhov txo qis hauv kev txaus siab rau European booking lossis tawm ntawm nws cov neeg siv khoom.
Jennifer Griscavage, tus tsim ntawm Runway Travel, ib qho kev ywj pheej ntawm McLean, Virginia-based McCabe World Travel, tau "tsis khoom heev booking European mus ncig" txawm tias muaj tsov rog hauv Ukraine.
Nws tau hais tias "Qhov cuam tshuam loj tshaj plaws uas peb tau pom yog kev txhawj xeeb txog kev mus ncig rau ib qho ntawm lub tebchaws uas muaj ciam teb nrog Russia lossis Ukraine," tshwj xeeb los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom booking "cov npe thoob" mus rau Lavxias chaw nres nkoj nroog St. raws li ib feem ntawm lub hiav txwv Baltic cruise.
"Hmoov tsis zoo, cov nkoj caij nkoj yuav tsum tau tshem tawm cov chaw nres tsheb hauv St. Petersburg [yog li] feem ntau ntawm peb cov neeg siv khoom tau tsiv cov caij nkoj mus rau xyoo 2023," nws hais ntxiv.
Ntxiv ntawm Nyiaj Txiag:
Mus txawv tebchaws? Koj lub hom phiaj yuav xav tau kev pov hwm kev mus ncig
Cov neeg Amelikas tau npaj mus ncig raws li lawv qhov kev ntshai omicron ploj mus
Nov yog qhov uas cov neeg Asmeskas xav mus txawv tebchaws
Cov xov xwm ntawd tsis zoo rau cov chaw nyob ze ntawm thaj chaw tsis sib haum xeeb lossis ciam teb rau Russia lossis Ukraine, vim lawv twb tau poob qis dua rau cov neeg tuaj saib tag nrho vim muaj kev sib kis, raws li European Travel Commission hauv Brussels. Czech koom pheej pom 81% poob ntawm cov neeg tuaj txog xyoo tas los piv rau 2019, ua raws li Finland, ntawm -80%, Latvia ntawm -78%, Estonia ntawm -77%, Slovakia ntawm -76% thiab Lithuania ntawm -74%, hais tias lub ETC.
Txawm li cas los xij, daim duab yuav ci dua rau qhov chaw nyob sab hnub poob. Txawm hais tias "qee qhov kev txhawj xeeb me me," Tebchaws Europe yog "tseem mus" rau Runway Travel cov neeg siv khoom zoo heev. Griscavage tau hais tias "Lub tebchaws Greece thiab Fabkis tshwj xeeb yog nrov heev,"
Audrey Hendley, tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm Ntiaj Teb Kev Ncig Tebchaws thiab Kev Pabcuam Kev Ua Neej ntawm American Express, tau hais tias thaum cov cheeb tsam cuam tshuam tsis yog qhov chaw tseem ceeb rau cov neeg siv khoom, lub tuam txhab tau sib piv cov nyiaj pub dawb rau cov tswv cuab, thiab tau pub nyiaj $ 1 lab rau kev pab cuam thiab muab 1 lab chav tsev so hmo rau txhawb cov neeg tawg rog.
"Cov no tsis yog qhov chaw loj rau peb," nws hais. “Txawm li cas los xij, txhua qhov chaw tseem ceeb; txhua tus neeg siv khoom yog qhov tseem ceeb. "
Cov kws tshawb fawb ntawm Hopper qhia txog qhov cuam tshuam rau kev tshawb nrhiav, booking thiab airfares thoob plaws Tebchaws Europe hauv lub lis piam ua ntej, thiab tom qab ntawd, Russia lub Ob Hlis 27 ua phem rau Ukraine.
Raws li lawv tsab ntawv ceeb toom "Kev Tsov Rog Russia-Ukraine cuam tshuam li cas mus ncig?,"Kev tshawb nrhiav dav hlau rau kev mus ncig rau Tebchaws Europe (sib nrug ntawm Russia thiab Ukraine) yog 9% qis dua qhov xav tau qib muab kev thov rau kev mus ncig tom qab omicron variant surge. Lub ntim ntim tau pib tuaj tos lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog rau nruab nrab Lub Ob Hlis raws li omicron poob qis tab sis tam sim no tau rov qab mus rau theem pom thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo.
Adit Damodaran, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam tus nqi ntawm Hopper tau hais tias "Qhov ntawd tsis tas yuav poob qis.
Damodaran tau hais tias "Nws tsuas yog qhov [kev tshawb nrhiav] tau nce zuj zus ntawm tus nqi, tab sis tam sim no nws yog hom tapered thiab qib qis dua qhov peb xav tau," Damodaran tau hais.
Qhov kev ntxeem tau zoo li tsis tshua muaj kev cuam tshuam rau Hopper qhov kev booking transatlantic uas twb muaj lawm ntau dua li Covid tau ua. Txawm li cas los xij, kwv yees li 20% ntawm lub app cov neeg siv khoom uas tau yuav "tso tseg vim li cas" kev tiv thaiv nrog lawv cov kev mus ncig hauv Tebchaws Europe tau siv lawv txoj cai kom tau nyiaj rov qab thaum muaj kev sib kis, tsuas yog 15% tau ua li ntawd thaum muaj kev kub ntxhov tam sim no hauv Ukraine.
Cov uas tsuas yog xav txog kev booking yog xav tsis thoob. Lawv yuav tsis ua qhov booking tshiab rau Europe.
Adit Damodaran
Tus nqi ntsuas ntawm Hopper
Damodaran tau hais tias "Nws tuaj yeem yog tias peb cov neeg taug kev ntau mus rau Tebchaws Europe sab hnub poob," "Yog hais tias lawv twb tau booked qhov kev mus ncig no lawv tsuas yog xam, 'Kuv kuj tseem yuav txuas ntxiv nrog nws.'
"Tab sis cov uas tsuas yog xav txog kev booking yog qhov tsis txaus ntseeg," nws hais ntxiv. "Lawv yuav tsis ua qhov booking tshiab rau Europe."
Cov neeg taug kev tsis tau npaj mus ncig European tab tom ncua sijhawm ntau dua li booking lwm qhov chaw, hais tias Damodaran. "Nyob rau hauv ib lub xyoo ib txwm muaj, Tebchaws Europe yuav yog li 30%, lossis yuav luag ib feem peb, ntawm peb cov ntawv booking [thiab] tam sim no txog 15%. nws hais.
Kev tshawb nrhiav dav hlau thiab kev booking tiag tiag yuav poob qis tab sis airfares nce, Hopper pom. Nqis mus rau Tebchaws Europe yog 16% siab dua lub hli dhau ib hlis. Qhov ntawd yuav zoo li ntau, tab sis, raws li Damodaran, tus nqi ntawm cov dav hlau roj tau nce 70% hauv 2021 thaum muaj kev sib kis - thiab tom qab ntawd 30% dua hauv thawj peb lub hlis xyoo no ib leeg, mus txog $ 2.86 ib nkas loos. los ntawm $ 2.20, raws li US Energy Information Administration.
"Qhov loj ntawm qhov peb tau pom txij thaum pib ntawm 2022 tau loj heev," nws hais. "Peb cia siab tias qhov nce ntawm cov nqi dav hlau yuav tshwm sim hauv huab cua."
Raws li kev xav, kev caij dav hlau hauv tebchaws Meskas tau nce 36% txij li Lub Ib Hlis 1.
Damodaran tau hais tias "Peb feem ntau cia siab tias yuav ze li 7% mus rau 8% hauv ib xyoos ib txwm zoo li 2019," Damodaran tau hais. Cov neeg nqa khoom feem ntau noj qee tus nqi ntawm cov nqi dav hlau kim dua "vim tias nws thiaj li cuam tshuam rau cov neeg taug kev txaus siab them."
Moscow qhov kev tawm tsam rau Ukraine thiab qhov cuam tshuam rau lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam hluav taws xob tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam tsis zoo ntawm lub xeev.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/10/russia-ukraine-war-has-limited-impact-on-europe-vacation-bookings.html