Russia Mulls Mass Mobilization. Nws yuav tsis txuag nws cov tub rog hauv Ukraine.

Tsaus Ntuj Kev puas tsuaj loj thiab sai Ukrainian nce Ntau tshaj 200 hnub rau hauv nws txoj kev ua tsov rog dav dav rau Ukraine, Kremlin rau hnub Tuesday qhia tias nws tuaj yeem ua ib kauj ruam uas yuav ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv loj hauv nws lub cev: kev nthuav dav thoob tebchaws, ib qho uas tuaj yeem xa mus rau hauv kev ua tsov rog muaj peev xwm ntau lab tus neeg Lavxias.

Tab sis qhov kev txhawb nqa no, yog tias nws nkag mus rau hauv - thiab kom meej, nws yog qhov loj if-yuav luag yeej yuav tsis thim rov qab Russia txoj hmoov zoo hauv Ukraine. Qhov tseeb tiag, kev sib koom ua ke tuaj yeem ua tau zoo heev leeb Russia swb.

"Mobilization nyob rau hauv Russia tsis daws lawv ib yam dab tsi," tweeted Mike Martin, ib tug khub ntawm Department of War Studies ntawm King's College hauv London.

Lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb ntawm kev txhawb nqa tau tuaj nyob rau hauv daim ntawv ntawm tsab cai lij choj uas tau tshwm sim hauv Duma, Lavxias teb chaws txoj cai lij choj roj hmab, hnub Tuesday. Lavxias Thawj Tswj Hwm Vladimir Putin tsis tau kos npe rau ntawm tsab cai lij choj uas tau hais tseg. Kev hais lus Putin yuav tsum ua rau hnub Tuesday tau ncua mus rau hnub Wednesday.

Mobilization tuaj yeem ua rau kev ua tub rog yuav tsum tau ua tub rog rau ntau lab tus neeg Lavxias uas, tam sim no, yooj yim tuaj yeem zam cov tub rog 'ob zaug-ib-xyoo cov qauv. Hauv txoj kev xav, kev txhawb nqa tuaj yeem ua rau cov tub rog Lavxias tuaj yeem ua rau ntau lab.

Hauv kev xyaum, cov tub rog tshiab no yuav tsis muaj cov kws qhia los qhia lawv, cov koom haum kom nqus tau lawv, cov thawj coj los coj lawv, cov tub ceev xwm tsis tau ua haujlwm los cob qhia lawv thiab cov cuab yeej siv los muab lawv lub zog sib ntaus sib tua.

Cov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb ntawm kev txhawb nqa yuav yog txhawm rau txhawm rau pab tub rog cov tub rog hauv tsev tsis muaj zog, ua rau muaj kev raug cai ntawm Putin thiab nws txoj cai tswjfwm, ua rau tsoomfwv cov nyiaj txiag poob qis thiab - qhov zoo tshaj plaws - pub rau Ukraine ntau yam tsis muaj kev cob qhia, tsis muaj teeb meem thiab coj tsis zoo. cov txiv neej uas, feem ntau yuav tsis, sai sai yuav surrender, suab puam los yog tuag.

Txawm tias ib kev vam meej mobilization yuav lig dhau lawm. Martin piav qhia tias "Nws yuav siv sijhawm ntau lub hlis thiab ntau hli los hloov cov neeg pej xeem mus ua tub rog," Martin piav qhia. "Russia xav tau tub rog nag hmo, tsis yog rau lub hlis."

Qhov tseeb, cov tub rog Lavxias tsis tau cob qhia cov neeg ua haujlwm tshiab rau cov qauv tseem ceeb ua ntej xa lawv mus rau pem hauv ntej. Lub caij ntuj sov no, raws li Kremlin thawj zaug pib sim tsim cov chav tshiab txhawm rau hloov qee qhov kwv yees li 50,000 tus neeg raug mob Russia tom qab ntawd tau raug kev txom nyem hauv Ukraine, cov tub ntxhais kawm tau txais. tsawg li 30 hnub ntawm kev cob qhia ua ntej deploy.

Lub hlis tom qab, cov tub rog yog txawm ntau txaus siab rau cov tub rog tshiab. Nws cov neeg raug mob - tuag thiab raug mob - tam sim no tuaj yeem tshaj 80,000. Lub koom haum Wagner, ib lub tuam txhab mercenary uas sawv cev rau qhov kawg ntawm kev sib ntaus sib tua zoo tshaj plaws nyob rau sab Lavxias teb sab hauv Ukraine, tsis ntev los no tau rub cov neeg tuaj yeem pab dawb los ntawm Lavxias teb sab tsev loj cuj thiab muab lawv tsuas yog ob peb hnub ntawm kev cob qhia ua ntej xa lawv.

Kev kwv yees, qee qhov ntawm cov neeg tsis tau kawm yav dhau los raug txim sai sai rau cov neeg Ukrainians. Tam sim no xav txog ib tug hluas Lavxias teb sab, uas yeej tsis txawm xav sib ntaus sib tua, qhia pem hauv ntej nrog txawm tsawg kev cob qhia. "Cannon nqaij," yog li cas Mark Hertling, tus thawj tub rog qub tub rog Asmeskas, piav qhia qhov no hypothetical recruit.

Qhov tsis muaj kev cob qhia no tsis yog qhov kev xaiv nruj me ntsis. Cov tub rog Lavxias lub hli dhau los raided nws lub hauv paus kev cob qhia-cov kws qhia ntawv thiab tub rog tub rog - txhawm rau tsim ob peb pab tub rog pem hauv ntej. Cov battalions, yog tias lawv tseem nyob tsis tau, tab tom ua haujlwm tsis txaus thiab feem ntau ua tsis tau los tuav ob tug Ukrainian counteroffensives nyob rau sab qab teb thiab sab hnub tuaj Ukraine.

Txhua yam uas yog hais, tam sim no cov tub rog Lavxias tsis tuaj yeem cob qhia ntau lab tus neeg ua haujlwm tshiab txawm tias nws xav rau. Nws tsis tuaj yeem nruab lossis coj lawv. Cov vaj tse loj-mobilization uas Soviet Union tau tsim thaum Tsov Rog Txias tsis muaj lawm.

"Yuav kom ua tiav [kev sib koom ua ke] thaum muaj kev ua tsov ua rog, koj yuav tsum tswj hwm qhov loj ntev muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv ... peacetime, ” tweeted Kamil Galeev, tus kws tshaj lij ywj pheej ntawm Lavxias teb sab. "Thiab Soviet Union tau ua. Ib qho laj thawj uas yog vim li cas [cov] tub rog Soviet muaj ntau dhau heev yog tias nws khaws cov peev txheej loj heev tsuas yog thaum muaj kev txhawb nqa. "

Tab sis cov tub rog tau muag tag nrho cov peev txheej ntau dhau ntawm lub xyoo tom qab kev tawg ntawm Soviet Union xyoo 1991. "Tsis muaj ntau lub tsev kawm ntawv thiab thaj chaw los cob qhia ... cov neeg ua haujlwm tshiab. Tsis muaj ntau qhov chaw nyob rau quarter rau lawv. Tsis muaj tub ceev xwm ntau dhau los coj lawv. "

Thiab tom qab poob 2,000 lub tso tsheb hlau luam thiab ntau txhiab lub tsheb armored hauv thawj xya lub hlis ntawm kev ua tsov ua rog, cov tub rog tsis tuaj yeem ua tub rog tshiab - yam tsawg kawg, tsis muaj riam phom niaj hnub no. Cov tsheb loj T-62 thaum ub uas cov neeg Lavxias tau rub tawm ntawm qhov chaw cia lub caij ntuj sov no tsuas yog saib ua ntej ntawm cov thev naus laus zis rov qab los.

"Qhov ntawd tsis tau txhais hais tias Putin yuav tsis tshaj tawm kev tawm tsam," Galeev tau hais. "Qhov ntawd txhais tau tias nws yuav ruam tiag tiag rau nws ua li ntawd." Thaum clogging cov tub rog lub depleted kev cob qhia bases nrog tsis txaus siab draftees yuav tsis tsim muaj txiaj ntsig kev sib ntaus sib tua zog, nws yuav luag muaj tseeb yuav txhawb kev tawm tsam hnyav hauv cov pej xeem uas, txog tam sim no, Kremlin tau tswj hwm los tiv thaiv qhov phem tshaj plaws ntawm kev poob tsov rog.

Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd, cov Ukrainians yuav luag vam thiab cia siab rau Putin los pib tsim ntau lab. Kev txhawb nqa, ntau dua li ib qho kev sib ntaus sib tua ua tiav los ntawm Ukraine, tuaj yeem nrawm rau qhov kawg ntawm Putin txoj cai ... thiab qhov kawg ntawm kev ua tsov rog, ib yam nkaus.