Russia tsis muaj kev tshwj tseg sab laug li Ukrainian pab tub rog ncig lub nroog tseem ceeb sab hnub tuaj

Lub Tsib Hlis 27 yog hnub tsaus ntuj rau Ukraine. Hnub ntawd yog hnub Lyman, lub nroog dawb kawg sab qaum teb ntawm Donets River nyob rau sab hnub tuaj ntawm Ukraine tus dej Donbas, thaum kawg poob rau cov tub rog Lavxias. Kev ntes Lyman tau pab cov tub rog Lavxias los koom ua ke nws txoj haujlwm hauv Donbas thiab ruaj ntseg cov khoom siv thoob plaws cheeb tsam.

Lyman yog domino. Raws li nws poob, nws tsoo Severodonetsk, lub nroog dawb kawg sab hnub tuaj ntawm Donets. Thiab raws li Severodonetsk poob, nws poob Lysychansk, nws lub nroog ntxaib nyob rau sab nraud ntawm tus dej.

Ze li plaub lub hlis tom qab ntawd, cov dominos tau poob rau hauv kev sib txawv. Kev tawm tsam Ukrainian uas tau ncaws tawm sab hnub tuaj ntawm Kharkiv, Ukraine lub nroog thib ob 100 mais qaum teb sab hnub poob ntawm Lyman, nyob rau hauv ob lub lis piam tau tso tawm ib txhiab square mais ntawm sab qaum teb Ukraine.

Kev khiav tawm ntawm kaum ob lub siab nyiam Ukrainian tub rog, cov tub rog Lavxias hauv Kharkiv Oblast - suav nrog ib tus neeg tseem ceeb 1st Guard Tanks Army - tau khiav tawm sab hnub tuaj hla tus dej Oskil, tawm hauv qab ntau pua lub tsheb thiab muaj feem ntau txhiab tus neeg raug mob.

Ukrainians 'mob siab, hnyav los ntawm aggressive air thiab artillery txhawb nqa, tau nqa lawv deb deb hla Oskil thiab sab qab teb mus rau Lyman. Tam sim no ob peb ntawm Kyiv's brigades - ib qho kev sib xyaw ntawm paratroopers thiab thaj chaw -kuj tab tom kaw rau Lyman… los ntawm qhov kev coj ua.

Nws yog ib lo lus pov thawj noose rau Russians nyob rau hauv lub zos.

Lub koom haum rau Kev Kawm Kev Ua Tsov Rog hauv Washington, DC piav qhia txog qhov muaj feem cuam tshuam. "Ntxiv Ukrainian kev nce qib sab hnub tuaj raws sab qaum teb ntug dej ntawm Siverskyi Donets River tuaj yeem ua rau Lavxias txoj haujlwm nyob ib puag ncig Lyman tsis tuaj yeem thiab qhib txoj hauv kev mus rau Lysychansk thiab thaum kawg Severodonetsk."

Cov neeg Lavxias, hauv lwm lo lus, yuav sai sai poob ntau thaj chaw uas lawv tau siv lub caij ntuj sov - thiab ntau ntawm lawv lub zog sib ntaus sib tua - ntes.

Lub zog ntawm lub zog hauv thiab ib puag ncig Lyman nyiam cov neeg tawm tsam. Raws li lub lim tiam dhau los, ib tug kws tshuaj ntsuam muab tso rau plaub tug tub rog Lavxias teb sab-motorized infantry, feem ntau-hauv cheeb tsam. Ib lub battalion tej zaum tsuas muaj ob peb puas pab tub rog pem hauv ntej xwb. Ib pab tub rog feem ntau suav nrog ob peb battalions.

ISW tus kheej qhov kev ntsuas yog txawm tsawg haum rau Russians. "Cov neeg tiv thaiv Lavxias teb sab hauv Lyman tseem zoo li muaj feem ntau ntawm ... cov neeg khaws cia thiab cov seem ntawm cov chav nyob ua rau muaj kev puas tsuaj loj hauv Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensive," lub tswv yim hais.

Qhov phem tshaj, "cov neeg Lavxias tsis zoo li yuav coj cov kev txhawb nqa los ntawm lwm qhov hauv kev ua yeeb yam mus rau thaj chaw no," ISW ntxiv.

Lub ntsiab lus tom kawg yuav tsum tuaj raws li tsis muaj surprise. Lub Kharkiv counteroffensive ntawm nws qhov kawg ntawm ib lub lim tiam dhau los tau noj ib pab tub rog Lavxias txhua hnub. Lub vaunted 1st Guard Tank Army poob tsawg kawg ib nrab ntawm nws kwv yees li 200 T-80 tso tsheb hlau luam thaum nws rub rov qab hla Oskil.

Tej zaum feem ntau embarrasingly rau Moscow, lub reserve 3rd Army Corps - uas lub Kremlin nyuaj rau tsim Lub caij ntuj sov no - dov mus rau hauv Kharkiv nyob rau hauv ib tug xav tau kev sib tw kom qeeb lub Ukrainian nres, tam sim ntawd poob ob peb skirmishes ces koom lub wider Lavxias teb sab khiav tawm.

Qhov ntawd yog hais tias, tsis muaj qhov tshwj xeeb los txhawb Lyman garrison vim Kremlin twb siv feem ntau ntawm nws cov reserves - 3rd AC - nyob rau hauv ib tug ua tsis tau tejyam los mus nres thawj Ukrainian counterattack. Russia tau khiav tawm ntawm cov tub ntxhais hluas noj qab haus huv thiab cov khoom siv niaj hnub no thiab tsis tuaj yeem sawv ntsug ua haujlwm tshiab.

Lavxias teb sab garrison nyob rau hauv Lyman yog outnumbered, nce nyob ib leeg-thiab ntawm nws tus kheej. Nws yog qhov kev nyab xeeb thawj koom ruam cov tub rog Lavxias uas tuav Lysychansk thiab Severodonetsk nyob ze saib raws li Kev Sib Tw Thib Ob ntawm Lyman looms.

Lawv, tom qab tag nrho, yog tom ntej.