Kev nce nqi Lithium tuaj yeem nres EV kiv puag ncig - lossis Lawv puas tuaj yeem?

Ib qho ntawm cov ntsiab cai ntawm kev ntseeg tias lub tsheb hluav taws xob yuav siv sij hawm los ntawm kev sib tsoo sab hauv yog cov nqi poob ntawm cov roj teeb. Los ntawm ib pob nqi ntawm ib ncig ntawm $ 1,200 ib kWh hauv 2010, cov nqi tau nqis mus rau $ 137 ib kWh los ntawm 2020 thiab £ 132 ib kWh hauv 2021. Muaj kev cia siab ntawm cov nqi qis dua $ 100 los ntawm 2023, los ntawm qhov taw tes EVs yuav ntaus nqi sib npaug nrog sib npaug hauv tsheb combustion thiab qhov kev ua si yuav dhau rau roj thiab roj. Tab sis lub ntiaj teb kev nce qib hauv cov nqi lithium tau ua rau qee tus nug seb qhov kev npau suav no puas yuav dhau los ua qhov tseeb.

Cov nqi lithium carbonate tau poob qis txij li lub ncov hauv 2018 ntawm ib ncig ntawm $ 15,000 ib tuj mus rau ib nrab ntawm tus nqi thaum kawg ntawm 2020, raws li Edison Pawg. Tab sis, feem ntau vim qhov kev thov rau EVs, tus nqi tau nce mus txog xyoo 2021, tsoo ntau dua $ 25,000 ib tuj thaum kawg ntawm xyoo tas los, thiab tam sim no. mus txog $40,000 ib tuj. Qhov no zoo li qhov xwm txheej tsis zoo, vim tias kev thov EV tsuas yog nce mus thiab qee qhov tam sim no hais tias kev tsim khoom tsis tuaj yeem ntsuas vim tias cov nqi lithium yuav tuav nws rov qab, nrog rau cov nqi nce ntxiv ntawm lwm cov zaub mov. Raws li Trading Economics, cobalt tau dhau los ntawm $ 30,000 hauv xyoo 2020 txog $ 80,000 ib tuj hnub no thiab npib tsib xee tau nce ntxiv, hais lus, los ntawm $ 20,000 txog $ 80,000 ib tuj.

Qhov no ob npaug, trebling, thiab quadrupling ntawm cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb hauv Lithium-Ion roj teeb suab yuav luag lub davhlau ya nyob twg rau tus nqi txo thiab ntim kev loj hlob peb tau pom hauv ob peb xyoos dhau los. Txawm li cas los xij, muaj ob peb lwm yam uas yuav tsum tau xav txog. Ua ntej, thaum cov ntsiab lus no kim, nws yuav tsum tau txiav txim siab tsuas yog ntau npaum li cas ntawm txhua tus tau nkag mus rau hauv EV roj teeb thiab tag nrho cov nqi tsheb.

Tsuas yog tshaj li ib nrab ntawm tus nqi ntawm EV roj teeb ntawm tes los ntawm cov zaub mov hauv cathode, nrog 12% los ntawm graphite hauv anode. Hom "NMC" cathode nrov siv lithium, nickel, manganese, thiab cobalt (qhov kawg peb muab nws lub npe NMC) rau anode. Ib qho zoo-nickel NMC tsim xws li LG's yog "811", hais txog yuav ua li cas nws muaj 80% npib tsib xee, 10% manganese, thiab 10% cobalt. Raws li twb tau hais lawm, tus nqi ntawm npib tsib xee thiab cobalt tau tawg nrog lithium, tab sis manganese tsis tau nce nqi rau tib theem. Graphite nqi kuj tau nce me ntsis tsis ntev los no, tab sis tsis nyob rau hauv tib qhov sib npaug li cov zaub mov hauv cathode.

Zuag qhia tag nrho, txawm li cas los xij, feem ntau ntawm cov zaub mov uas tsim txog li ib nrab ntawm lithium-ion roj teeb ntawm tes tus nqi tau nce mus los ntawm kev txiav txim siab ntawm tus nqi, uas tuaj yeem txhais tau tias ntau npaum li peb npaug ntawm tus nqi ib kWh ntawm EV roj teeb. Txawm li cas los xij, txawm hais tias muaj qee tus nqi EV nce, piv txwv li nrog Tesla nce nws UK Model 3 tus nqi, tsis tau muaj kev nce nqi tseem ceeb los ntawm lwm cov tuam txhab, uas tsis yog lub forecourt gouging vim lub universal nti tsis txaus. Yog tias 2021 pob nqi yog $ 132 ib kWh, txawm tias 100kWh dab roj teeb hauv cov tsheb loj tshaj plaws yuav tsum tsuas yog tus nqi ib ncig ntawm $ 13,000, tab sis qhov tseeb muaj qhov cim loj loj uas tuaj yeem ua rau lub tshuab rau cov neeg siv khoom kawg.

As Michael Liebreich ntawm Bloomberg NEF thiab Liebreich Associates tau taw qhia hauv Tweet, peb tau nyob ntawm no ua ntej nrog silicon. Kev nce siab loj ntawm cov nqi silicon hauv xyoo 2008 ua rau qee qhov sib cav tias cov hnub ci vaj huam sib luag yuav tsis ntsuas, tab sis ib xyoos tom qab cov nqi tau rov qab los dua thiab tom qab ntawd txuas ntxiv poob. Hnub ci vaj huam sib luag tam sim no tsawg dua li ib feem peb ntawm tus nqi uas lawv tau nyob rau hauv Watt hauv 2010. Lub siab EV roj teeb ntxhia nqi kuj tseem yuav yog ib qho blip. Tsis muaj ib yam dab tsi zoo li tus nqi ntxhia siab los txhawb kev tsim khoom ntau dua li cov tuam txhab mining nrhiav nyiaj ntsuab nyob rau hauv. Lithium tau piav qhia tias yog "kub dawb" thiab muaj ntau lub lag luam pib nrhiav kev siv nyiaj tshwj xeeb, vim tias nws muaj ntau heev. Hauv tebchaws Askiv, muaj Cornish Lithium thiab British Lithium, thiab hauv German Vulcan Energy tab tom nrhiav kom tawg lub pas dej loj loj hauv Upper Rhine Valley. Muaj ntau lub lag luam pib hauv Asmeskas tab tom nrhiav kev siv lithium, xws li Austin's EnergyX thiab Bill Gates-txhawb Mangrove Lithium.

Kev txhim kho thev naus laus zis hauv roj teeb chemistry tseem yuav ua qhov tseem ceeb. Yog tias qee qhov ntxhia yog kim dhau, roj teeb chemistry tuaj yeem hloov pauv. NMC anodes tsis yog tib qho kev xaiv - tseem muaj lithium titanate, lithium cobalt oxide thiab lithium manganese oxide. Tesla tau hloov mus siv Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) CATL roj teeb rau cov qauv qauv 3 tam sim no muag hauv Tebchaws Europe, ib yam kuv kwv yees rov qab rau lub Xya Hli 2020Cov. Kuv thiab Tsis ntev los no tau tshaj tawm ntawm Theion's radical sulfur-based roj teeb tsim, uas tsis siv nickel, manganese lossis cobalt, tab sis tseem xav tau lithium. Theion tsis yog tib lub tuam txhab tshawb fawb lithium-sulfur ib yam nkaus, vim hais tias leej faj kuj pheej yig thiab muaj ntau, muab nws cov txiaj ntsig zoo.

Kev nce nqi ntawm lithium thiab lwm yam khoom siv tam sim no siv hauv EV roj teeb yog ib qho kev txhawj xeeb. Tab sis peb tau nyob ntawm no ua ntej, ntau zaus. Ib yam li kev hloov mus rau EVs yog ib feem ntawm kev daws teeb meem ntawm CO2 emissions thiab kev hloov pauv huab cua, thev naus laus zis tshiab yuav pom txoj hauv kev rau EV roj teeb, raws li nws ib txwm muaj nyob hauv lwm qhov chaw. Txoj kev nkhaus ntawm cov roj teeb tus nqi ntawm hluav taws xob thiab sab hauv hluav taws xob hluav taws xob tsheb tus nqi sib xws yuav tau tsoo lub pob nrawm, tab sis cov kev taw qhia dav dav ntawm kev mus los tseem zoo ib yam.