(Bloomberg) - Raws li thawj ib nrab ntawm 2022 zoo li yog ib qho ntawm cov ntaub ntawv phem tshaj plaws rau kev lag luam nyiaj txiag, cov neeg lag luam muag khoom tau txhawb nqa lawv cov thawj koom ruam ntxiv rau kev poob qis hauv Asmeskas cov peev txheej.
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Kev ntsuas los ntsuas cov kev ua lag luam muag khoom hauv cov kev xaiv lag luam, suav nrog kev lag luam me me thiab muab kev yuav khoom, qhia tias tsis yog tsuas yog cov tub ua lag luam me tab tom ua raws li cov khoom lag luam poob qis, tab sis tau thauj khoom ntawm cov nyiaj tau txais txiaj ntsig yog tias lawv txuas ntxiv poob.
Jason Goepfert, tus thawj coj tshawb fawb ntawm Sundial Capital Research tau hais tias "Nws tsis tshua muaj rau cov tub lag luam tsawg tshaj plaws los twv tawm tsam cov lag luam Tshuag, thiab thaum lawv ua, cov khoom lag luam tsis tau ua tsis tiav," said Jason Goepfert, tus thawj coj tshawb fawb ntawm Sundial Capital Research.
Lub lim tiam dhau los tus txheeb ze sib tw twv txiaj tawm tsam cov khoom lag luam tshaj li cov ntaub ntawv dhau los tau teeb tsa thaum ntxov ntawm kev kub ntxhov thoob ntiaj teb hauv xyoo 2008 thiab pib ntawm Covid-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, nws tau sau hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb. Lub tuam txhab kwv yees hnub cov tub lag luam ua si cov kev xaiv lag luam tuaj yeem zaum ntawm $ 600 lab lossis ntau dua hauv kev poob txij li Thanksgiving.
Lub caij no, cov ntim me me thiab cov nqi them nqi pheej yig tau txuas ntxiv mus rau qis qis - ob qho tib si cuam tshuam tus kabmob kis tshiab qis - raws li kev lag luam muag tawm tob zuj zus, raws li Christopher Jacobson, tus kws tshaj lij ntawm Susquehanna Financial Group. Cov qauv no qhia tias, tsawg kawg ntawm kev xaiv sab, cov neeg lag luam muag khoom tsis tau "yuav lub dip," tus kws tshaj lij hais.
Jacobson tau saib qhov nruab nrab tag nrho txhua hnub kev sib tw hu xov tooj thiab feem pua ntawm cov ntim uas tau tsav los ntawm qhov me me qhib hu yuav, ib qho ntawm nws cov neeg nyiam tshaj plaws rau qhov zoo li cov khw muag khoom koom nrog, raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Options Clearing Corporation.
Kev poob qis hauv kev hu xov tooj me me kuj tau ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm cov khoom rov qab mus rau qhov chaw ua haujlwm hauv ob xyoos dhau los, Jacobson ntxiv. "Kev txhawj xeeb Macro tau tsav yam tam sim no, yog li tsuas muaj kev tsom mus rau cov khoom lag luam tshwj xeeb," nws hais hauv xov tooj. "Nws tsis yog qhov xav tsis thoob uas pom cov dej ntws ntau dua hauv cov haujlwm lossis cov khoom lag luam macro tshwj xeeb ntawm ETF thiab index sab."
Puas tau txij li qhov siab ntawm meme Tshuag frenzy thaum ntxov 2021, thaum cov tub lag luam hauv tsev muaj npe nrov thawb cov khoom ntawm GameStop Corp. thiab AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., Wall Street tau mob siab rau ua raws li lawv coj li cas.
Tab sis yog thaum ntawd. Lub khw lag luam txij li thaum poob mus rau hauv dais-kev lag luam thaj chaw nrog tus qauv S&P 500 qhov ntsuas tau poob ntau dua 20% thiab tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 poob ze li 30% xyoo no. Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Goldman Sachs Group Inc. tau pom kwv yees li 50% ntawm ib qho khoom muag khoom muag hauv Nasdaq 100 thiab ib feem peb ntawm cov hauv S&P 500 uas tau khaws cia txij li Lub Ib Hlis 2019 tau muag.
Jacobson tau hais tias "Kev txhawj xeeb meej txog nyiaj txiag tsis txaus thiab kev txhawj xeeb txog kev poob qis yuav tsis mus qhov twg los tau sai sai," Jacobson tau hais. "Tab sis thaum peb mus rau hauv lub caij khwv tau nyiaj, kuv xav tias yuav pom me ntsis ntxiv txaus siab rau ib qho kev xaiv Tshuag. Cov neeg ua lag luam tab tom nrhiav kev sib txawv ntau dua nyob rau ntawm theem kev ncaj ncees. "
Txog tam sim no, tib qho uas muab bulls muaj kev thaj yeeb nyab xeeb yog qhov txheeb ze ruaj khov ntawm kev kwv yees nyiaj tau los. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tam sim no cia siab tias S&P 500 Index cov nyiaj tau los yuav nce 10.5% xyoo no thiab 9.3% hauv 2023, raws li kev pom zoo kwv yees suav los ntawm Bloomberg Intelligence.
"Yog tias peb tau txais kev rov qab mus rau lub khw muag nyuj, qhov ntawd puas yuav tsav ntau tus neeg koom nrog rov qab los? Kuv yuav xav li ntawd. Puas yog qhov ntawd txhais tau tias peb yuav ncav cuag qhov siab uas peb tau pom thaum Lub Ib Hlis 2021? Tej zaum tsis yog, ”Jacobson hais.
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