Bull khw
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Xyoo no, lub khw lag luam tau muaj qhov phem tshaj thawj ib nrab hauv 50 xyoo. S&P 500-tus qauv tseem ceeb rau Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam- poob 24%, thiab cov thev naus laus zis hnyav Nasdaq poob 33% ntawm nws tus nqi.
Qhov poob ntawm cov nqi, txawm li cas los xij, tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam nrog cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag. (Cov ntaub ntawv hauv cov ntsiab lus, raws li S&P 500 cratered hauv Q1 2020, nws cov nyiaj tau los tau nce 4.4% piv rau ib xyoos dhau los). Hloov chaw, nws yog qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev ua lag luam hu ua "ntau compression. "
Nyob rau hauv ib tug tib neeg lus, nws yog ib tug txo nyob rau hauv tus nqi cov tub ua lag luam txaus siab them rau ib duas las nyob rau hauv ib lub tuam txhab cov nyiaj tau los.
Los ntawm JPMorgan cov kev suav, thawj ib nrab ntawm 2020 pom qhov kev nyuaj siab tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv 30 xyoo dhau los - ntaus lub dot-com kev sib tsoo thiab tom qab xyoo 2008 vaj tse tawg.
"Lub S&P 500 tau pom nws qhov thib ob sharpest P / E de-rating ntawm yav dhau los 30Y, tshaj qhov raug compression pom thaum lub sij hawm ua ntej recessions. Txawm hais tias qhov sib npaug tam sim no muaj nyob rau hauv kab nrog cov keeb kwm nruab nrab, peb ntseeg tias nws zoo dua li muaj nuj nqis ..." JPMorgan tau sau rau hauv ib daim ntawv sab hauv.
Cov duab loj loj
Yog tias tsis yog cov nyiaj khwv tau los, dab tsi ua rau cov tub ua lag luam muaj kev xav thib ob ntawm lawv xav them nyiaj ntau npaum li cas?
Ob yam: 1) Fed kev sib ntaus sib tua nrog kev nce nqi thiab kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm Russia-Ukraine.
Txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no, Fed tau doling tawm qhov kev txhoj puab heev tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv lub xyoo caum kom tswj tau ze li ntawm tus lej nyiaj nce ntxiv. Xws li ib tug hawkish Fed tsis zoo rau cov cuab tam muaj kev pheej hmoo vim tias cov nqi siab dua ua rau tus nqi qiv nyiaj thiab txo nqi.
Lub caij no, sab hnub poob lub ntsej muag nrog Russia hla Ukraine tau cuam tshuam rau hauv lub ntiaj teb cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab khoom noj khoom haus thaum txhawb nqa kev nce nyiaj hauv tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tau sim tawm.
saib tom hauv ntej
Qhov xwm zoo yog tias qhov kev puas tsuaj thiab kev poob siab raug nqi rau hauv kev ntaus nqi qis yuav nyob tom qab peb.
Hauv lub rooj sib tham FOMC zaum kawg, Powell tau muab ib qho dovhuas undertone, hinting ntawm slowdown nyob rau hauv tus nqi hikes. Lub caij no, kev nce nqi tau pom cov cim ntawm qhov nce siab - tag nrho cov uas tuaj yeem coj qhov JPMorgan hu ua "kev rov pib dua ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam xav tau."
"Txawm hais tias nws yog cov nyiaj tau los lossis Fed, peb pom qhov rov pib dua ntawm kev cia siab ntawm cov tub ua lag luam: Lub lim tiam dhau los lub rooj sib tham ntau dua ntawm Fed uas pom tus nqi pib nce ze rau qhov nruab nrab, nrog rau kev txo qis kev cia siab ntawm kev nce nqi thiab cov nyiaj poob qis, qhia tias qhov siab tshaj plaws hawkishness yuav muaj qab. Kev pheej hmoo kev lag luam tau sib sau ua ke txawm hais tias qee qhov kev poob siab cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm, qhia tias xov xwm tsis zoo twb tau xav txog / nqi nyob rau hauv, "JPMorgan cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau sau rau hauv daim ntawv sab hauv.
Qhov tseeb, raws li JPMorgan qhov kev tshawb fawb sab hauv, 58% ntawm nws cov neeg siv khoom lag luam npaj yuav ua kom muaj kev ncaj ncees.
Ua ntej kev lag luam nrog Tib lub sij hawm hauv Markets
Txhua hnub, kuv tso tawm ib zaj dab neeg uas piav qhia txog dab tsi yog tsav lub lag luam crypto. Sau npe ntawm no kom tau txais kuv qhov kev txheeb xyuas thiab cov khoom khaws cia hauv koj lub inbox.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/danrunkevicius/2022/08/04/reset-of-investor-expectations-jpmorgan-issues-bold-stock-market-prediction-after-sp500-dow-and-nasdaqs-worst-first-half-in-50-years/