Kev poob nyiaj txiag tau nthuav dav, ceeb toom Peter Boockvar

Tej zaum yuav tsis muaj kev khiav tawm ntawm kev lag luam.

Cov ntawv tshaj tawm tshiab tshaj plaws ntawm vaj tsev thiab kev tsim khoom, raws li tus neeg ua lag luam Peter Boockvar, qhia tias nws tau nrawm nrawm mus rau lwm qhov ntawm kev lag luam.

"Cov tib neeg tsis muaj kev nkag siab txaus rau qhov kev lag luam poob qis thiab qhov nws yuav txhais li cas rau cov tuam txhab nyiaj tau los thiab cov nyiaj tau los," Bleakley Advisory Group tus thawj coj ua lag luam hais rau CNBC's "Nyiaj ceev nyiaj” hnub Monday.

National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index poob rau hauv qhov chaw tsis zoo nyob rau lub Yim Hli. Qhov no yog yim lub hlis nyob rau hauv kab builder kev ntseeg siab poob. Hauv kev tshaj tawm xov xwm, NAHB tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag Robert Dietz tau hais tias, "Txoj cai tswjfwm nyiaj txiag nruj dua los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Tebchaws Reserve thiab cov nqi tsim kho tsis tu ncua tau ua rau muaj kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob."

Boockvar tau kwv yees lub tsev nyob yuav luag ib xyoos dhau los ntawm CNBC's "trading teb chaws” Nws ceeb toom Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau stoking lwm tus vaj tse nqi npuas uas yuav so tawm kev ncaj ncees hauv tsev.

Ib tug neeg thuam Fed ntev, nws cia siab tias lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab yuav ua qhov yuam kev loj vim nws nce cov paj laum thiab nruj txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag los tawm tsam kev nce nqi.

'Dangerous territory'

Boockvar hais tias "Yog tias koj saib ntawm cov nqi taug kev yav dhau los, nws qis dua thiab qis dua ntawm Fed cov nyiaj tau los uas tau pib ua txhaum," Boockvar hais. "Tab sis txhua qhov kev nce qib nce mus nce qib tau xaus ua ntej yav dhau los vim qee yam tawg. Yog li, tam sim no peb pib nkag mus rau hauv thaj chaw txaus ntshai uas tej yam muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev tawg. "

Muaj ib tsab ntawv ceeb toom kev poob siab thib ob rau hnub Monday. New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey rau lub Yim Hli poob los ntawm 42 cov ntsiab lus. Nws tau raug khi rau lub cev qhuav dej hauv kev txiav txim tshiab thiab cov khoom xa tuaj. Boockvar hu nws ua "kev ceeb toom tsis zoo" hauv daim ntawv.

Txawm li cas los xij, qhov ntsuas tseem ceeb tau pib lub lim tiam hauv ntsuab. Cov Dow pom nws plaub hnub zoo ua ke. Cov S&P 500 thiab tech-heavy Nasdaq kaw siab dua rau peb zaug hauv plaub zaug.

Tab sis Boockvar qhia tias qhov kev sib tw yog nyob rau ntawm cov dej khov me me vim tias nws yog thaum ntxov ntawm kev poob qis. Nws teev peb theem ntawm kev lag luam dais thiab qhia tias cov tub ua lag luam raug tsis lees paub.

"Kuv tuaj yeem sib cav tias peb tsuas yog pib xwb ... ntu thib ob qhov twg kev loj hlob qeeb thiab peb tab tom pib pom qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov paj tau paj," nws hais. "Qhov no muaj txoj hauv kev mus ua haujlwm los ntawm qhov rooj thib ob."

Tab sis Boockvar ntseeg tias cov tub ua lag luam tseem tuaj yeem ua tau nyiaj. Nyob rau hauv ib puag ncig no, nws pom zoo cov npe muaj txiaj ntsig tshaj lub zog tech.

Boockvar, tus pab txhawb nqa CNBC hais tias "Tus nqi tseem yuav ua tau zoo tshaj qhov kev loj hlob." "Kev nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam loj hlob, txawm tias cov kev poob qis no, tseem kim dua qhov uas tseem muaj ntau lub npe tsis nco qab uas twb muaj kev cia siab qis rau hauv lawv."

Nws kuj nyiam cov khoom lag luam, suav nrog precious hlau, natural gas thiab roj.

Boockvar tau hais tias "Kuv tseem zoo nkauj heev ntawm cov khoom lag luam feem ntau, lees paub qhov kev thim rov qab vim muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog qhov xav tau," Boockvar tau hais. "Tab sis [Kuv] tseem muaj zog heev ntawm cov kev sib tw ntawm cov khoom muag."

Hnub Monday, WTI cov roj av tau poob yuav luag 3% los ze rau ntawm $ 89.41 ib chim - tom qab tsoo nws qhov qis tshaj plaws txij li Lub Ob Hlis 3 ua ntej hnub ntawd.

Disclaimer

Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/15/dangerous-territory-recession-is-spreading-warns-peter-boockvar.html