Kev poob nyiaj txiag tuaj yeem tso lub S&P Lwm 22% -Tab sis Tesla Thiab Lwm Cov Khoom Muag no tuaj yeem tiv taus qhov kev poob qis

Tojsiab

Ntau lab nyiaj daus las hauv kev lag luam peev nyiaj txiag rau lub teb chaws cov tuam txhab pej xeem loj tshaj plaws yuav raug tshem tawm xyoo no hauv qhov xwm txheej phem tshaj plaws uas tau teev tseg los ntawm Goldman Sachs cov kws tshaj lij, nrog rau tsoomfwv cov nuj nqis qis qab nthab teeb meem ntawm kev cia siab clouding kev lag luam, tab sis lub tuam txhab peev nyiaj txiag. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntseeg tias ntau cov khoom lag luam tau zoo nyob rau hauv qhov tshwm sim los ntawm qhov xwm txheej tsis txaus ntseeg.

Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb

S&P 500 yuav ua rau qis qis li 3,150 lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav no nyob rau hauv qhov "nyuaj tsaws" qhov kev poob qis ua ntej kaw xyoo 2023 ntawm 3,750, sawv cev 22% thiab 6% kev poob qis los ntawm qib 4,000 rau hnub Tuesday, Goldman Sachs cov tswv yim coj los ntawm David Kostin tau sau. Nyob rau hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau cov neeg siv khoom lig hnub Monday, ceeb toom cov tuam txhab cov nyiaj tau los tau teeb tsa kom txo qis raws li cov nqi qiv nyiaj nce thiab cov neeg siv khoom txiav kev siv nyiaj.

Hauv qhov xwm txheej tsis tshua muaj "muab tsaws", S&P yuav qis dua ntawm 10% poob thaum ntxov xyoo no ua ntej rov qab los kaw 2023, Kostin tau kwv yees, nrog rau loj hlob kev pom zoo tias Asmeskas yuav nkag mus rau qee yam kev lag luam nyiaj txiag xyoo no.

Kostin-coj Goldman cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau txheeb xyuas ntau qhov kev lag luam uas yuav tsum ua tau zoo tshaj qhov kev lag luam limping hauv txhua qhov kev lag luam kev lag luam hauv ib lub lis piam, tshuaj xyuas rau ntau qhov kev ntsuas suav nrog rau tus nqi-rau-cov nyiaj tau los piv rau yav tom ntej, tus neeg sawv cev rau kev loj hlob yav tom ntej uas sib piv cov nyiaj tau los rau cov nqi tam sim no. .

Raws li cov kev ntsuas no, cov khoom lag luam zoo tshaj plaws los mus rau qhov chaw tsaws nyuaj suav nrog cov khw muag khoom tseem ceeb hauv Tsev Depot thiab Costco, cov tuam txhab kho mob Pfizer thiab Labcorp, cov zaub mov loj Kroger thiab Tyson Foods thiab video game titans Activision Blizzard thiab Electronic Arts thiab Microsoft, lub tuam txhab loj tshaj plaws los ntawm ua lag luam cap ntawm daim ntawv.

Txawm hais tias cov khoom lag luam ntawm Tesla tau nce 65% hauv xyoo 2022, lub tuam txhab tsheb hluav taws xob tau coj los ntawm Elon Musk headlines Goldman's stock picks for a soft landing, joined by the technology hardware and software companies Qualcomm, Advanced Micro Devices thiab Garmin thiab cov tuam txhab kev pabcuam nyiaj txiag Carlyle Group thiab Capital One. .

Txhawm rau los nrog nws cov khoom khaws cia, lub tuam txhab peev nyiaj kuj tau saib xyuas lub tuam txhab cov txiaj ntsig thiab cov nuj nqis txhawm rau txiav txim siab seb cov tuam txhab twg tsawg kawg yuav ntsib kev lag luam.

Txaus Ntshai Qhov Tseeb

Tseemfwv qibsiab ceev mus kom ze ntawm nws cov nuj nqis qab nthab, zoo li yuav mus txog rau lub caij ntuj sov no, muaj feem cuam tshuam txog 30 cov khoom lag luam uas vam khom rau tsoomfwv Meskas rau cov nyiaj tau los, Goldman ceeb toom rau hnub Monday. Kev tiv thaiv cov khoom lag luam suav nrog Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman thiab Huntington Ingalls yog qhov cuam tshuam ntau tshaj plaws los ntawm kev kub ntxhov, thaum cov tuam txhab tso siab rau tsoomfwv cov ntawv cog lus rau ntau dua 95% ntawm lawv cov lag luam, suav nrog cov tuam txhab sab laj Booz Allen Hamilton thiab Medicare servicer Oak Street Health, kuj yuav yog. nyob rau hauv txaus ntshai.

Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb

2022 yog lub xyoo phem tshaj plaws rau cov khoom lag luam txij li qhov tob ntawm Kev Txom Nyem Loj hauv 2008, nrog Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab, S&P thiab tech-heavy Nasdaq poob 9%, 19% thiab 33%, feem. Txawm hais tias cov khoom lag luam tau tawm mus rau qhov pib kub hauv 2023, nrog rau txhua qhov ntsuas tseem ceeb nce 3% mus rau 7% xyoo dhau los, ntau tus thawj coj hauv kev lag luam tau ceeb toom txog lub xyoo muaj peev xwm hnyav rau cov khoom lag luam. Morgan Stanley tus thawj coj ua lag luam Michael Wilson tau kwv yees tias S&P yuav poob qis li 3,000 nyob rau lub hlis tom ntej, qhia txog 25% downside, thaum JPMorgan ceeb toom Hnub Friday ntawm "kev puas tsuaj" hauv nws cov kev kwv yees nyiaj txiag nrog "kev lag luam me me" yuav tuaj nyob rau lub hlis kawg ntawm 2023.

Tsis meej

Shares ntawm Goldman poob los ntawm ntau npaum li 6% nyob rau hauv thaum ntxov hnub Tuesday trading tom qab lub txhab nyiaj cov nyiaj tau los poob deb deb ntawm cov kws tshuaj ntsuam kev cia siab, nrog rau nws qhov tseeb peb lub hlis twg cov nyiaj tau los ntawm $ 1.3 billion down yuav luag 70% los ntawm tib lub sij hawm peb lub hlis ib xyoos ua ntej.

Kev Nkag Siab Hais

Wilson tau sau ntawv rau hnub Tuesday tias "Txoj kev lag luam dais zoo li Hall of Mirrors, tsim los ua kom peb tsis meej pem,"

ntxiv nyeem ntawv

Teb Chaws Asmeskas tuaj yeem khiav tawm ntawm cov nyiaj ntsuab los ntawm Lub Rau Hli Ntuj thaum Lub Rau Hli yog tias tsis muaj nuj nqis txwv, Yellen ceeb toom (Forbes)

Cov nuj nqis txwv Showdown Thiab tsoomfwv kaw ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo loj tshaj plaws hauv ib xyoo caum-Ntawm no yog dab tsi yuav cia siab (Forbes)

S&P tuaj yeem poob 24% Xyoo no, Morgan Stanley hais tias, tab sis ib qho haujlwm yuav yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws thawj koom ruam kom zam dhau qhov swb (Forbes)