Thaum lub xyoo caum tseem hluas, yog tias kev nce nqi nyob ib puag ncig rau ob peb xyoos tom ntej, tej yam yuav ua rau tsis zoo nkauj rau cov tub ua lag luam.
Qhov ntawd yog raws li daim ntawv qhia no los ntawm Deutsche Bank, uas qhia tau hais tias ntau npaum li cas ntawm cov cuab tam tau ua thaum lub sij hawm disco thiab stagflation hnub ntawm 1970s.
German Bank
Txawm hais tias keeb kwm tsis muaj tseeb rov hais dua, Deutsche Bank cov kws tshaj lij tau npaj los muab lub hauv paus rau cov neeg siv khoom xav txog ob peb xyoos tom ntej no yog tias kev nce nyiaj nce siab txawm tias tom qab Fed-induced poob nyiaj.
"Cov lus teb luv luv yog tias rau cov cuab yeej nyiaj txiag ib txwm muaj xws li daim ntawv cog lus thiab cov peev txheej koj yuav xav kom muaj kev puas tsuaj tiag tiag es tsis yog qhov kev tsim muaj nyiaj txiag loj heev uas pom nyob rau plaub lub xyoo dhau los," lub txhab nyiaj tus kws tshaj lij Jim Reid thiab Henry Allen, hais rau cov neeg siv khoom hauv ib daim ntawv ntawm Tuesday.
Nyeem: Kev nce nqi yuav qis dua li txhua tus xav - txawm tias Fed
Cov khoom lag luam zoo li yuav yog qhov zoo dua thawj koom ruam, txawm hais tias muab qhov kev sib tw uas twb tau pom los txog tam sim no kaum xyoo no, qhov yooj yim tau txais tej zaum tau ua, lawv tau sau tseg.
"Txawm li cas los xij, kub thiab nyiaj tsis tau nce ntau hauv ob xyoos dhau los yog li yog tias phau ntawv ua si ua raws li xyoo 1970 lawv yog cov khoom muaj nqis pheej yig los ntawm qhov pib no," cov kws tshaj lij hais.
Kev poob qis los ntawm COVID kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb thiab Russia qhov kev cuam tshuam ntawm Ukraine tau ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam cov khoom lag luam thiab kev tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom tseem ceeb. Kev txhawj xeeb tias cov tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab yuav tsis tau txais kev nce nqi raws li kev tswj hwm tau coj Wall Street
DJIA,
nyob rau hauv ib tug unnerving roller-coaster caij. Ntawm qhov tseeb los qhia txog kev txhawj xeeb yog tus thawj coj ua lag luam ntawm lub ntiaj teb cov peev nyiaj loj tshaj plaws.
"Peb tuaj yeem yooj yim nkag mus rau hauv qhov no [stagflation] sai heev," Bridgewater's Bob Prince hais rau Bloomberg hauv kev xam phaj tias luam tawm hnub Tuesday.
Nyeem: Txawm hais tias kev lag luam poob qis yuav tsis kho kev nce nqi, tus kws pab tswv yim qub Obama hais
Cov ntawv nyeem tom ntej ntawm kev nce nqi tuaj txog hnub Friday, dhau los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve qhov kev ntsuas nyiaj txiag nyiam. Cov kws tshawb fawb kwv yees kwv yees tias tus nqi ntawm tus kheej-kev siv nyiaj txiag tseem ceeb, uas tsis suav nrog zaub mov thiab lub zog, yuav yooj yim rov qab mus rau 4.9% txhua xyoo hauv lub Plaub Hlis, los ntawm 5.2%.
Tshaj tawm tsis ntev los no Muaj kev tshawb fawb los ntawm National Association rau Kev Lag Luam Economists tau qhia tias cov kws lag luam tsis xav tias Fed yuav coj nyiaj txiag rov qab mus rau nws lub hom phiaj 2% txog 2024 lossis tom qab ntawd. Tseem, feem ntau cov kws lag luam ntseeg tias kev nce nqi yuav nce siab rau xyoo no, nrog ntau tshaj li ib feem peb ntawm kev pom tias nws nce siab hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/real-wealth-destruction-this-deutsche-bank-chart-shows-what-could-happen-to-assets-in-a-repeat-of-the- stagflationary-1970s-11653402639?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo