Cov neeg ua lag luam vaj tsev nyob hauv Asmeskas tuaj yeem nkag mus rau cov teeb meem loj zoo nkauj raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve (Fed) ua rau nce nqi thiab cog lus ntau dua los txhawm rau txhim kho kev nce nqi. Qhov kawg Consumer Price Index (CPI) cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm rau lub Cuaj Hlis 13 tau pom tias kev nce nqi nce siab dua li qhov xav tau thiab cov kws tshuaj ntsuam uas kwv yees qhov nce siab tshaj plaws yog qhov tsis raug.
Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj, cov nqi tsev thoob plaws ntiaj teb tau nce siab thaum lub sijhawm Covid kaw; yog li ntawd, ib qho kev kho tau raug tsim; Txawm li cas los xij, raws li Nick Gerli, tus tsim ntawm Reventure Consulting thiab tus tswv ntawm tus naj npawb 1 YouTube channel ntawm av tso ua lag luam, kev muag khoom loj tuaj.
Namely, Gerli tau taw qhia rau qhov tseeb tias 6-hli US Treasury yield yog yuav luag zoo ib yam li kev yuav thiab xauj tsev hauv Asmeskas (Cap Rate), txhais ua me me rau tsis muaj kev txhawb siab rau cov tub ua lag luam hauv cov khw no.
Margin hu
Tsis tas li ntawd, Gerli thov tias Wall Street kev nqis peev vaj tsev tsis tau tsim kom ntev, vim tias cov tub ua lag luam tau txwv kev yuav khoom, cov tsev txhab nyiaj yuav ua. npe hu rau cov tub ua lag luam muag lawv cov cuab yeej thiab txo cov khoom muaj nqis ntawm phau ntawv.
Cov kev hu xov tooj no yuav ua raws li Floating Rate Credit Facilities cov tub ua lag luam siv, uas tau txais nyiaj ntau dua nrog nce nqi.
Ua txhaum kev lag luam nyuaj
Lub caij no, Barry Sternlicht, billionaire thiab co-founder ntawm Starwood Capital Group, koom nrog CNBC's Squawk Box los tham txog kev lag luam, qhov twg nws tau kov ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev teeb meem.
"Koj yuav pom cov nqi xauj tsev ntawm CPI txuas ntxiv nce vim nws yog cov ntaub ntawv qub uas lawv muaj. Tab sis lawv hu rau peb, lossis lawv hu rau CoStar, lossis lawv hu rau leej twg hauv vaj tse, koj tuaj yeem tau txais cov ntaub ntawv ntawm lub sijhawm, qhov twg nws tab tom dov. Thiab saib lub tsev lag luam; koj ua rau muaj kev sib tsoo ntawm qhov tsis tau pom dua hauv kev ua lag luam vaj tsev. Kev lag luam tawg nyuaj! ”
Nws kuj hais ntxiv tias:
"500,000 tsev neeg ib leeg muag tshiab yog qhov qis tshaj txij li xyoo 1952. Thiab peb yuav pom, koj yuav muaj kev sib tsoo loj hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev, thiab cov nqi vaj tsev yuav poob qis. Koj puas pom tus nqi vaj tsev yog lawm? Lawv twb tau txais $ 7 trillion ntawm kev nplua nuj tawm ntawm lub khw lag luam. "
Nws zoo nkaus li tias Wall Street tab tom nrhiav kev tawm ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev, uas nyob rau hauv lem yuav ua rau muaj kev lag luam poob, thiab cov tswv tsev yuav phem dua nrog rau cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev.
Thaum kawg ntawm 2022, daim duab pom tseeb ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus ntawm cov lus ceeb toom no yuav tsum tshwm sim; rau muaj peev xwm ua lag luam vaj tse, nyob ntawm sab xis, rau tam sim no, zoo li yog qhov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws.
Disclaimer: Cov ntsiab lus ntawm lub xaib no yuav tsum tsis txhob suav hais tias yog cov lus qhia txog kev nqis peev. Kev nqis peev yog speculative. Thaum kev nqis peev, koj cov peev nyiaj muaj kev pheej hmoo.
Tau qhov twg los: https://finbold.com/real-estate-experts-see-a-big-selloff-coming-as-treasury-yields-close-in-on-cap-rate/