(Bloomberg) - Cov nyiaj ceev ceev tau raug yuam kom yuav kwv yees li $ 225 nphom ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus tshaj li ob zaug ua lag luam, raws li ib qho ntawm Wall Street cov tswv yim kub tshaj plaws hauv kev lag luam zoo 2022 dais qhia pom tias tawg.
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Raws li cov ntaub ntawv cov neeg siv khoom txias txias tau ua rau muaj kev sib tw ntawm cov cuab yeej cuab tam, cov neeg ua lag luam ua raws li cov neeg ua lag luam raug yuam kom tshem tawm txoj haujlwm luv luv tag nrho txog $ 150 nphom hauv cov peev txheej thiab $ 75 nphom hauv cov nyiaj tau los ruaj rau hnub Thursday thiab Friday, JPMorgan Chase & Co. tus kws tshaj lij Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou kwv yees.
Muab lawv cov hluav taws xob tseem ceeb, Wall Street cov kws tshaj lij tam sim no tau hais txog qhov muaj peev xwm rau kev lag luam ntse ntxiv - yog tias cov thawj tswj hwm zoo xws li Cov Kws Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij pom lawv tus kheej nyob rau hauv siab kom nce lawv qhov tshwm sim dua.
CTAs, uas siv sijhawm ntev thiab luv luv hauv kev ua lag luam yav tom ntej, tuaj yeem yuav $ 28 nphom tus nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam nyob rau lub lim tiam no yog tias cov qauv ntsuas kaw tsis tau hloov pauv ntau, raws li kev kwv yees los ntawm Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. tus thawj coj tswj hwm. Yog tias daim ntawv cog lus tseem nyob, uas tuaj yeem ua rau $ 40 nphom ntawm kev yuav khoom nyob rau lub lim tiam tom ntej - thiab muaj peev xwm $ 100 nphom hauv lub hlis tom ntej, nws tus qauv taug qab ntau lub khw qhia.
Cov kev kwv yees qhia txog kev hloov pauv tsis tu ncua ntawm cov kev cai raws li pawg, uas tau tsim cov txiaj ntsig keeb kwm los ntawm kev caij kev lag luam nyiaj txiag ua ntej lub xyoo no, nrog kev poob qis ntawm kev sib koom ua ke thiab Cov Nyiaj Txiag ua ke nrog bullish exposures rau duas thiab cov khoom muag.
"Feem ntau CTA AUM lub zog tam sim no yog qhov zoo thiab qhov kev thov los ntawm lub zej zog no yuav tawg," Rubner sau rau hauv daim ntawv rau cov neeg siv khoom hnub Friday.
Cov Tshuag oscillated nruab nrab ntawm kev nce thiab poob hnub Monday, nrog S&P 500 pib hnub hauv liab ua ntej nce ntau li 0.4%. Qhov Performance index ces dipped dua nyob rau yav tav su trading kom kaw qhov kev sib kho 0.9% qis dua.
Tau txais kev tuav ntawm daim duab meej ntawm lub ntiaj teb quant yog deb ntawm qhov yooj yim. Cov qauv tsim los ntawm cov kev xav hauv lub ntsiab lus feem ntau cuam tshuam cov lej sib txawv. Ib qho kev txheeb xyuas zoo sib xws los ntawm Nomura Securities International tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam hla Charlie McElligott, piv txwv li, tau qhia tias pawg neeg sib koom ua ke tau yuav ib qho me me dua $ 61.4 billion ntawm cov khoom lag luam thiab $ 2 nphom ntawm daim ntawv cog lus lub lim tiam dhau los.
Txawm li cas los xij, kev tsom xam pab ua kom pom tseeb ntawm qhov kev tawm tsam hnyav, ib qho uas ntau tus hais tias yog qhov cuam tshuam ntau dhau rau kev nyeem ntawv softer-tshaj li kev xav hauv lub Kaum Hlis tus neeg siv khoom ntsuas tus nqi. Qhov tsawg kawg nkaus, qhov kev tawm dag zog qhia txog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev taug qab cov kev qhia xws li kev tso nyiaj rau lub sijhawm thaum cov duab tseem ceeb tseem ceeb.
Nce yuav luag 6% lub lim tiam dhau los, S&P 500 tau tshem tawm qee qhov kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb, suav nrog nws cov nqi nruab nrab dhau 50 thiab 100 hnub dhau los. Raws li Goldman, CTAs zoo li yuav nce qib kev yuav khoom thaum qhov ntsuas tau rov qab los ntawm qib 3,804 - uas ua rau lub sijhawm luv luv lub sijhawm zoo - thiab 3,966, pom raws li qhov pib ntawm lub sijhawm nruab nrab.
Yog tias tam sim ntawd bounce endures, nws yuav yog ib qho kev sib tw rau kev lag luam uas tau vam meej nyob rau hauv ib lub xyoo uas kub nce nqi thiab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txoj kev sib tw los ua kom nws tau los ua lub zog rau kev ua tau zoo.
Ib qho Performance index los ntawm Societe Generale SA taug qab CTAs poob rau qhov kev sib tham thib rau rau hnub Friday. nqis 5.2% dhau qhov kev nthuav dav, kev lag luam tsuas yog raug kev txom nyem los ntawm kev ua haujlwm tsis zoo txij li lub Peb Hlis 2020.
Kathryn Kaminski, tus kws tshawb fawb tus kws tshaj lij thiab tus thawj coj ua lag luam ntawm AlphaSimplex Group, tau hais tias nws ntxov dhau los hu rau qhov kawg ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag loj. Lub tuam txhab AlphaSimplex Managed Futures Strategy Fund (ticker ASFYX), uas poob yuav luag 5% lub lim tiam dhau los, tseem nce ntau dua 38% xyoo no.
"Lub sijhawm luv luv kev lag luam zoo li cuam tshuam rau yav dhau los tus qauv, tab sis thaum peb xav txog lub sijhawm ntev dua tseem muaj pov thawj raws li Fed tawm tswv yim rau lub asthiv no thiab tag nrho theem ntawm kev nce nqi uas cov qauv no yuav tsis dhau sai," Kaminski hais hauv kev xam phaj. "Hauv cov ntsiab lus yooj yim, qee qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb tseem nyob thiab tus nqi tseem yuav tsum tau nce siab dua kom tau mus rau qib siab dua ntawm kev nce nqi."
Txawm hais tias kev yuav khoom binge, CTAs nyob deb ntawm kev pheej hmoo. Tam sim no, kev lag luam yog nruab nrab ntawm kev sib npaug thiab luv luv ntawm daim ntawv cog lus, raws li kev kwv yees los ntawm Deutsche Bank AG.
Parag Thatte, tus kws tshaj lij ntawm Deutsche Bank, tau hais hauv kev xam phaj tias "Muaj lub peev xwm rau lawv ntxiv rau kev ncaj ncees thiab cov nyiaj tau los ua haujlwm vim tias qhov cuam tshuam rau ob qho tib si tsawg heev," Tab sis nws "tso siab rau lawv qhov kev hloov pauv txuas ntxiv mus thiab rau kev lag luam kom nyob twj ywm lossis nce."
Rau JPMorgan's Panigirtzoglou, qhov kev pheej hmoo rau cov pab pawg yog lwm qhov kev lag luam thim rov qab.
Panigirtzoglou tau hais hauv kev xam phaj tias "Tam sim no lawv cov luv luv tau npog ntau, cov ntshav yuav nres thiab lawv tuaj yeem pib tau txais txiaj ntsig yog tias kev rov qab los txuas ntxiv thiab pib tsim txoj haujlwm ntev," Panigirtzoglou tau hais hauv kev xam phaj. "Qhov xwm txheej phem dua rau lawv yog kev thim rov qab, piv txwv li pib tsim txoj haujlwm ntev nyob rau lub asthiv tom ntej thiab tom qab ntawd whpsawed los ntawm kev lag luam thim rov qab."
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