Qualcomm: A Rare Technology Value Play

Raws li 2022 los txog rau qhov kawg, cov swb nyob rau hauv lub semiconductor sector tau piav qhia txog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam rub rov qab thaum tseem txo qis cov txiaj ntsig tsis zoo ntawm kev lag luam.

Txawm li cas los xij, nws nyob hauv cov xwm txheej zoo li qhov no uas muaj peev xwm tshwm sim. Txawm hais tias tseem muaj kev pheej hmoo poob qis, kev yuav khoom rau hauv pawg chip tuaj yeem muab cov ntsiab lus nkag rau tus neeg mob.

Tom qab 40% poob rau xyoo tas los, Qualcomm (QCOM) yog ib qho ntawm cov khoom lag luam pheej yig tshaj plaws semiconductor, thiab kev yuav khoom, raws li nws nthuav tawm cov khoom tshiab rau kev lag luam tsheb.

Tam sim no, QCOM tau cim tseg vim yog vim li cas. Tshaj tawm qhov kev xav tau thoob ntiaj teb rub mus tom ntej, nws txoj kev lag luam loj tshaj plaws ntawm kev muab cov chips smartphone tsis muaj zog. Kev thov rau cov khoom siv hauv Android tshwj xeeb yog qeeb hauv Suav teb, thiab cov khoom lag luam channel tam sim no bloated - xav tau ob peb lub hlis twg los ua haujlwm. Cov kev sib pauv pauv ntawm 12x 2023 cov nyiaj tau los kwv yees thiab 10x xyoo tom ntej.

Hnub Monday dhau los, Bloomberg tau tshaj tawm tias Apple (AAPL) yuav pib hloov Qualcomm's iPhone modem chips nrog nws cov khoom siv hauv tsev sai li sai tau 2024. Credit Suisse sau tseg tias Qualcomm cov kev taw qhia twb qhia txog 2024 hloov rau iPhone 16; lub iPhone sawv cev ib ncig ntawm $ 4 nphom hauv Qualcomm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm chipset. Txawm li cas los xij, CS ntseeg tias Apple txoj kev txhim kho modem yog ywj pheej ntawm nws daim ntawv tso cai daim ntawv cog lus nrog Qualcomm thiab Apple yuav txuas ntxiv them cov nqi ntawv tso cai txij li cov ntawv cog lus tau tuav zoo thaum muaj kev sib tw hauv tsev hais plaub.

Wells Fargo tau txo qis QCOM thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis mus rau "kev ua tsis tau zoo," ceeb toom txog qhov muaj peev xwm $ 1.25 ntaus rau cov nyiaj tau los ib feem hauv 2025, tau los ntawm kev poob ntawm iPhone cov nyiaj tau los. Tus kws tshuaj ntsuam ua cov ntsiab lus siv tau hais txog qhov tsis muaj kev loj hlob hauv ntu smartphone, uas suav txog 60% ntawm Qualcomm cov nyiaj tau los.

Qhov kev txhawj xeeb yog tias lub tuam txhab yuav tsum tau tso siab rau cov neeg siv Android siab, qhov twg kev tsiv teb tsaws mus rau 5G tau pib flatten. Wells kuj tsis ntseeg tias qhov sib txawv rau hauv nws pib yog lub sijhawm loj txaus los txav lub koob.

Wells Fargo qhov kev noj yuav yog iav-ib nrab-kub.

Kev xav thiab tso rau ntawm Phab ntsa Street rau cov khoom lag luam leveraged rau cov xov tooj yuav tsis tuaj yeem ua phem dua, tab sis ib zaug hauv qab hauv cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023, qhov thib ob ib nrab yuav zoo li ci dua. Tuam Tshoj tab tom qhib nws txoj kev lag luam sai dua li qhov xav tau tom qab-Covid kaw. Ntxiv rau, kev hloov pauv ntawm Apple tsis yog qhov ua tiav thiab tuaj yeem yooj yim raug thawb tawm vim muaj teeb meem thev naus laus zis.

Thaum lub Consumer Electronics Show (CES), Qualcomm tau nthuav tawm nws lub Snapdragon Digital Chassis, uas yuav cuam tshuam rau kev loj hlob. Lub Snapdragon digital cockpit muaj cov kev daws teeb meem zoo tshaj plaws uas ua ke infotainment nrog kev tsav tsheb los ntawm SoC architecture rau cov kev paub dhau los.

Qualcomm kev tswj hwm yog tsom rau cov nyiaj tau los ntawm autos ntawm $ 4 nphom los ntawm 2026, nce los ntawm $ 1.4 nphom hauv 2022, feem ntau yog tsav los ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm cov neeg tsav tsheb-pab cov tshuab thiab digital cockpit. Siv Qualcomm cov kev kwv yees, cov nyiaj tau los ntawm tsheb yuav tsum loj hlob ntawm 31% kev loj hlob txhua xyoo (CAGR) ntawm 2022-26 thiab 18% CAGR los ntawm 2026-31 mus txog $ 9 nphom hauv 2031.

Xyoo 2018, Qualcomm tau pib ua cov khoom lag luam loj heev, so haujlwm yuav luag 25% ntawm cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb thiab rov kho nws daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj li cas los ntawm cov nyiaj ntsuab ntawm $ 17 billion rau cov nuj nqis ntawm $ 10 billion. Buybacks yog tam sim no nyob deb tshaj opportunistic, thiab Qualcomm them ib tug hefty 2.5% nyiaj faib nrog cov kev npaj yuav nce cov nyiaj them los ntawm 8-12% txhua xyoo. Lub tuam txhab xa rov qab ~ 90% ntawm cov nyiaj pub dawb pub dawb rau cov tswv lag luam xyoo tas los, sib faib sib npaug ntawm kev yuav khoom thiab cov nyiaj faib tawm.

Qualcomm yog qhov tsis tshua muaj nqi thev naus laus zis ua si; ib lub tuam txhab ntawm kev txiav ntug ntawm mobile, tsheb, AI, thiab cov neeg siv khoom thiab kev lag luam IoT. Nrog rau cov khoom lag luam thiab cov lag luam tawm ntawm qhov tsis txaus siab, cov khoom lag luam pheej yig thiab npaj yuav rov qab los hauv av thaum lub lag luam smartphone pom cov cim ntawm kev rov qab los.

Cov pab pawg neeg semiconductor yuav zoo li zoo ua ntej ntawm kev thim rov qab hauv cov hauv paus, yog li nws feem ntau tsim nyog yuav ntawm qhov tsis muaj zog, thaum cov khoom lag luam tsis txaus siab.