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Xov Xwm Tseem Ceeb

Asian equities muaj hnub muaj zog raws li Nyiv, Tuam Tshoj, Hong Kong, Taiwan, thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb tau tshaj tawm cov txiaj ntsig zoo tom qab US Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Powell cov lus pom zoo, uas ua rau cov neeg ua lag luam muaj kev pheej hmoo txaus ntshai, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov khoom lag luam loj hlob. Lub Hang Seng Index tau nce +2.79% coj los ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv internet, uas ua raws li nag hmo US kev sib tw. Hong Kong qhov ntim tau nce +18.51% los ntawm nag hmo, uas yog 93% ntawm 1-xyoo nruab nrab thaum 2 cov khoom lag luam nce siab rau txhua 1 cov khoom poob qis. Plaub qhov kev lag luam loj tshaj plaws hauv Hong Kong los ntawm tus nqi yog Tencent, uas tau nce +4.52%, Meituan, uas tau nce +9.13%, Alibaba HK, uas tau nce +5.89%, thiab JD.com HK, uas tau nce +10.98%. Yog lawm!

Txawm hais tias niaj hnub no cov ntawv xov xwm Wall Street Journal hais tias "Rau Suav Tech Stocks, Tsis Muaj Xov Xwm Zoo Tshaj Plaws" muaj ob peb lub zog rau nag hmo US kev txav mus los thiab hnub no ua raws. Raws li peb tau hais nag hmo, Fidelity tau tuav lub rooj sib tham ua lag luam qhia txog kev nyiam ntawm Tuam Tshoj hauv internet. Lub caij no, UBS cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas hauv is taws nem tau pom zoo rau qhov chaw tom qab kev hloov pauv zoo sib xws hauv lub lim tiam dhau los ntawm Goldman Sachs thiab raws li JD.com tshaj tawm nkag mus rau European lag luam los ntawm lub khw tsis muaj neeg ua haujlwm hauv Netherlands. Peb yuav tsum tau txais peb cov npoj yaig thiab tus txiv neej tseem ceeb hauv Amsterdam Sjef los xyuas nws. Peb kuj tau tshaj tawm lub lim tiam dhau los uas Charlie Munger tau nce ob npaug ntawm nws cov koom tes Alibaba hauv Q4 tom qab ob npaug hauv Q3. Tsis muaj catalysts - bah humbug! Raws li peb tau hais ntau zaus, kev sib tw hauv qhov chaw yuav "yuam" cov tsev neeg loj nyiaj kom txo qis qis rau cov npe. Tencent thiab Meituan tau tshaj tawm kev yuav khoom los ntawm Mainland cov tub ua lag luam ntawm Southbound Stock Connect. Nco ntsoov Hong Kong muaj cov khoom lag luam tsim khoom lag luam loj uas zoo li ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau ntxiv mus rau upside thiab downside.

Kev loj hlob stocks / sectors outpaced tus nqi stocks / sectors nyob rau hauv Hong Kong thiab Tuam Tshoj. Kev loj hlob-taw qhia txog Shenzhen +1.42% thiab STAR Board +1.7% outpaced Shanghai's +0.8% ntawm ntim tiaj tus los ntawm nag hmo uas yog NW nyuam qhuav tshaj li 1-xyoo nruab nrab thaum nce cov khoom lag luam tshaj tawm poob qis 3 txog 1. Catalysts rau kev sib tw yog Tuam Tshoj xyoo 2021. tsheb muag tau nce +4.4% hauv 2021 piv rau 2020 txog 20.1 hli tsheb muag raws li Yicai Global thiab CAAM. Internal combustion engine tsheb (gas guzzlers) muag poob -6% los ntawm 2020 mus rau 17.2 hli thaum EV muag khoom nce 250% mus rau 3 hli. 2021 qhov kev kwv yees rau EV muag khoom yog 5 hli txawm hais tias kuv cov npoj yaig Anthony ntseeg tias qhov no tsis zoo los ntawm nws cov kev sib tham nrog cov tuam txhab. Daim ntawv tshaj tawm tau teeb hluav taws nyob rau hauv cov thev naus laus zis huv si raws li EV roj teeb tsim CATL yog Tuam Tshoj cov khoom lag luam hnyav tshaj plaws los ntawm tus nqi nce +5.28% ua raws li EV tsheb npav BYD +7.07% nrog Tianqi Lithium lub 4^th Cov khoom lag luam siab tshaj plaws yog +2.15%.

Lub Kaum Ob Hlis PPI xyoo dhau los yog 10.3% piv rau qhov kev cia siab ntawm 11.3% thiab Kaum Ib Hlis 12.9% thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis CPI yog 1.5% piv rau kev cia siab ntawm 1.7% thiab Kaum Ib Hlis 2.3%. Kev siv zog los txhawb kev nce nqi tshwj xeeb tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov nqi khoom muag tau tshwm sim maj mam pib siv. Tom qab Mainland kaw, lub Kaum Ob Hlis kev siv nyiaj tag nrho yog RMB 2.37 trillion piv rau qhov kev cia siab ntawm 2.4 trillion thiab Kaum Ib Hlis 2.61 trillion, qiv tshiab 1.13 trillion piv rau kev cia siab ntawm 1.25 trillion thiab Kaum Ib Hlis 1.27 trillion thaum M2 +9%. Cov ntaub ntawv qiv nyiaj tau kov lub teeb txawm hais tias nws yog qhov tsim nyog rau spur cov neeg tsim cai los nqis tes rau kev txhawb nqa roj pedal tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nrog Olympics nyob ib ncig ntawm lub ces kaum. Nyob rau hauv luv luv, peb yuav tsum pom PBOC muab kev txaus siab mus rau Suav Xyoo Tshiab.

Cov tub ua lag luam txawv teb chaws tau yuav $ 1.103B ntawm Mainland stocks ntawm Northbound Tshuag Txuas nrog kev tsom mus rau kev loj hlob piv rau tus nqi. Tuam Tshoj Treasury bonds tau tiaj tus, CNY txaus siab me ntsis piv rau US $ thiab tooj liab rallied.

Hmo Kawg Ntawm Kev Sib Pauv Cov Nqi, Tus Nqi, & Liaj Teb

• CNY / USD 6.37 piv rau 6.37 Nag hmo
• CNY / EUR 7.23 piv rau 7.22 Nag hmo
• Tos ntawm 10-Xyoo Tsoom Fwv Nyiaj 2.80% tiv thaiv 2.80% Nag hmo
• Tos ntawm 10-xyoo Tuam Tshoj Kev Tsim Kho Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj 3.08% tiv tiag 3.08% Nag hmo
• Tus Nqi Tooj Liab + 1.38% dhau ib hmo