Qhov kev pom zoo rau cov khoom lag luam semiconductor tab tom hloov ntawm qhov phem mus rau qhov tsis zoo, thiab cov tub ua lag luam zoo li tau hloov lawv cov nyiaj mus rau hauv software sector vim li ntawd.
Nco tsis tau: Vim li cas cov khoom lag luam semiconductor yog 'yuav luag tsis nqis peev' txawm tias cov ntaub ntawv khwv tau los ntawm lub ntiaj teb tsis txaus
Mizuho tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Jordan Klein thiab Bernstein tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Stacy Rasgon tau tshuaj xyuas nyob rau lub lim tiam no nrog cov ntawv sau qhia txog lawv cov kev tsis ntseeg tias kev loj hlob ntawm cov chip muag yuav txuas ntxiv mus rau xyoo tom ntej.
Klein tau sau ntawv rau hnub Friday tias "Nws zoo siab dua uas nws tau hla kev yuav khoom txhua xyoo," "Txhua tus neeg tsis zoo thiab ceev faj raws li kev txheeb xyuas ntawm Asia qhia txog kev nco tus nqi poob, lub xov tooj smartphone thiab PC cov khoom lag luam poob qis vim cov khoom lag luam nce thiab xav tau / xaj qeeb."
Klein tau hais tias "Txawm hais tias cov ntaub ntawv chaw / server thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob pib zoo, ob peb zoo li xav yuav / ntxiv rau cov khoom lag luam no ntshai tsam tsis muaj zog nyob rau lwm qhov yuav ua rau txhua qhov kev xav thiab kev nqis peev," Klein tau hais. "Thiab yog huab cua capex siv tau raug txiav, nws tuaj yeem ua si dhau rau qee qhov nyiam thiab muaj npe ib nrab xws li Marvell Technology Inc.
MRVL,
+ 4.24%,
Advanced Micro Li Inc.
AMD,
+ 5.64%,
Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
+ 5.55%
uas yog lub hom phiaj ntawm lub chaw data. "
Rasgon tau sau rau hnub Tuesday tias "nws zoo li cov tub ua lag luam tab tom tos qee tus neeg yuav ntsais," raws li Wall Street xav kom muaj kev pom zoo los ntawm qee tus neeg tsim khoom hauv lub caij khwv tau los uas muag yuav raug kev txom nyem los ntawm cov khoom muag overbought.
"Lub voj voog siab tshaj plaws" vs 'muaj zog rau kev sib cav ntev dua' tsis yog kev sib cav nrog ntau qhov sib tsoo thaum muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev txiav txim siab, cov neeg siv khoom tsis muaj zog, kev nce nqi, macro, thiab lub taub hau tshiab (Shanghai, Ukraine thiab lwm yam), thiab cov tub ua lag luam tam sim no nquag nrhiav. kwv yees txiav, "Rasgon hais.
Nyeem: Qhov kawg ntawm ib qho kev xav tsis thoob - Vim li cas Nvidia, Intel thiab AMD qhov kev ntsuas tau ntsib kev kub ntxhov loj heev
Klein tau taug qab qhov kev nqis peev los ntawm cov chips rau hauv software sector, sau tseg tias cov software stocks tau rov qab zoo dua li cov chip stocks los ntawm kev muag khoom dav dav hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm Lub Rau Hli. Klein tau hais tias nws tau pom "kev hloov pauv loj" tawm ntawm cov khoom lag luam nti, tom qab kev sib hloov tawm ntawm lub zog thiab cov khoom lag luam.
Hauv 31 hnub dhau los, iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
IGV,
+ 4.26%
yog nce ntau dua 6%, thaum PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
+ 4.45%
poob ntau dua 4% ntawm tib lub sijhawm. Xyoo dhau los, IGV poob qis 28% thiab SOX Performance index poob ntau dua 31%.
Hauv kev sib piv, Lub Zog Xaiv Sector SPDR ETF
XLE,
+ 1.32%
poob ze li ntawm 15% nyob rau 31 hnub dhau los, txawm tias nws tsuas yog State Street SPDR sector ETF uas nyob hauv thaj chaw zoo rau lub xyoo, nrog 30% nce. Ib yam li ntawd, Cov Khoom Siv Xaiv Sector SPDR ETF
XLB,
+ 3.97%
poob 9% nyob rau hauv 31 hnub dhau los, tab sis tsis zoo li lub zog, cov ntaub ntawv ETF poob ze li ntawm 17% rau lub xyoo.
"Ntau npaum li cas ntawm qhov no yog qhov kev yuav khoom tiag tiag tseem nyob rau hauv nqe lus nug," Klein sau tseg. "Xav tias muaj zog ntau dua li cov paj laum tau rub rov qab thiab qhov kev loj hlob zoo ua haujlwm vs cov neeg tau txais txiaj ntsig nyiaj txiag."
Mizuho lub rooj sib tw nyiaj ntsuab, txawm li cas los xij, pom qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb rau hnub Thursday ntawm "qhov loj me muag" ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, thiab qee qhov "yuav tiag tiag hauv kev loj hlob software."
"Tsis paub meej yog tias qhov no yog nyiaj los rau hauv software ntshai tsam kev txhawb nqa siab dua hauv kev lag luam lossis tsuas yog ntau qhov chaw pov tseg cia siab tias yuav muaj cov lus qhia tsis zoo thiab kev lees paub tias qhov kev thov / xaj yuav qeeb," Klein sau, ntxiv tias kev sib tham tsis ntev los no hauv lub lim tiam dhau los qhia tias cov tub ua lag luam yog ua ntau qhov tsis zoo txog cov khoom lag luam chip.
Tswvyim: Cov 7 cov khoom lag luam semiconductor no yuav nyob ze rau hauv qab. Cov qauv kab ntawv no qhia tias thaum twg thiab ntau npaum li cas lawv tuaj yeem rov qab los.
Hnub Tuesday, Morgan Stanley rov pib them nyiaj ntawm AMD nrog qhov ntsuas hnyav dhau, tam sim no lub tuam txhab peev tau ua tiav qhia Xilinx tom qab nws tau los ntawm AMD, tab sis qhov kev cia siab ntawd tsis tau txuas ntxiv mus rau lwm tus neeg tsim khoom. Rau nws feem, ntawm AMD tus kws tshuaj ntsuam hnub ob lub lis piam dhau los, tus tsim chip daig rau nws outlook tshaj tawm nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis, thiab hais tias nws cia siab tias qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm kwv yees li 20% nyob rau peb mus rau plaub xyoos tom ntej.
Lub caij khwv tau dhau los no Intel Corp.
INTC,
+ 3.21%
ob npaug ntawm nws qhov kev pom zoo 2022 txawm tias lub quarter tam sim no qhia tau hais tias tsis muaj zog. Thiab hnub Wednesday, Intel ncua nws qhov kev ua koob tsheej rau nws Ohio fab raws li kev txaus siab hauv Congress los txhawb kev lag luam chip zoo li tau ploj mus.
Nyeem: Intel yeej qhov kev sib tw tshiab kawg hauv nti siv rau huab, hais tias KeyBanc Capital Markets
Qualcomm Inc.'s
QCOM,
+ 4.17%
outlook yog bullish, tab sis cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tuaj yeem pom kev txhawb nqa hauv lub sijhawm luv luv muab lub zog hauv nws txoj kev lag luam handset. Nvidia txiav nws qhov kev xav vim yog Tuam Tshoj kaw thiab poob nyiaj hauv Russia vim yog tsov rog hauv Ukraine, thiab Phab ntsa Street coj qhov ntawd raws li kev tos ntev "txiav" rau cov Tshuag. Cisco kuj tau tshaj tawm qhov kev pom tsis zoo vim yog Tuam Tshoj kaw thiab shares pom lawv hnub phem tshaj nyob rau hauv ntau tshaj ib xyoo caum.
Chip-cov khoom lag luam tsis tshua muaj kev cia siab vim tias muaj teeb meem txuas ntxiv txuas ntxiv tuav lawv rov qab. Qhov ntawd yog qhov teeb meem nrog Applied Materials Inc.'s
AMAT,
+ 4.37%,
ASML tuav NV
ASML,
+ 6.13%,
Lam Tshawb Nrhiav Corp.
LRCX,
+ 6.16%,
thiab KLA Corp.
KLAC,
+ 5.88%
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pessimism-on-chip-stocks-is-hitting-a-new-high-and-the-money-seems-to-be-flowing-toward-software- 11656097839?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Pessimism ntawm chip stocks yog ntaus lub siab tshiab, thiab cov nyiaj zoo li yuav ntws mus rau software
Qhov kev pom zoo rau cov khoom lag luam semiconductor tab tom hloov ntawm qhov phem mus rau qhov tsis zoo, thiab cov tub ua lag luam zoo li tau hloov lawv cov nyiaj mus rau hauv software sector vim li ntawd.
Pessimism txog yav tom ntej ntawm chip sector tau loj hlob tom qab sib xyaw ua ke ntawm kev kwv yees hauv lub quarter thib ob, nrog cov kws tshuaj ntsuam paib tias qhov kev sib kis-tsav kev txhawb nqa hauv kev muag khoom thaum muaj teeb meem kev xa khoom tuaj yeem qhuav. Lawv ntshai tias cov neeg siv khoom overbought thaum lub sij hawm cov khoom lag luam frenzy, uas yuav ua rau lawv nres kev yuav khoom vim lawv twb muaj cov khoom muag, thiab tab tom pib pom cov cim tshwm sim.
Nco tsis tau: Vim li cas cov khoom lag luam semiconductor yog 'yuav luag tsis nqis peev' txawm tias cov ntaub ntawv khwv tau los ntawm lub ntiaj teb tsis txaus
Mizuho tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Jordan Klein thiab Bernstein tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Stacy Rasgon tau tshuaj xyuas nyob rau lub lim tiam no nrog cov ntawv sau qhia txog lawv cov kev tsis ntseeg tias kev loj hlob ntawm cov chip muag yuav txuas ntxiv mus rau xyoo tom ntej.
Klein tau sau ntawv rau hnub Friday tias "Nws zoo siab dua uas nws tau hla kev yuav khoom txhua xyoo," "Txhua tus neeg tsis zoo thiab ceev faj raws li kev txheeb xyuas ntawm Asia qhia txog kev nco tus nqi poob, lub xov tooj smartphone thiab PC cov khoom lag luam poob qis vim cov khoom lag luam nce thiab xav tau / xaj qeeb."
Klein tau hais tias "Txawm hais tias cov ntaub ntawv chaw / server thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob pib zoo, ob peb zoo li xav yuav / ntxiv rau cov khoom lag luam no ntshai tsam tsis muaj zog nyob rau lwm qhov yuav ua rau txhua qhov kev xav thiab kev nqis peev," Klein tau hais. "Thiab yog huab cua capex siv tau raug txiav, nws tuaj yeem ua si dhau rau qee qhov nyiam thiab muaj npe ib nrab xws li Marvell Technology Inc.
+ 4.24% ,
+ 5.64% ,
+ 5.55%
MRVL,
Advanced Micro Li Inc.
AMD,
Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
uas yog lub hom phiaj ntawm lub chaw data. "
Rasgon tau sau rau hnub Tuesday tias "nws zoo li cov tub ua lag luam tab tom tos qee tus neeg yuav ntsais," raws li Wall Street xav kom muaj kev pom zoo los ntawm qee tus neeg tsim khoom hauv lub caij khwv tau los uas muag yuav raug kev txom nyem los ntawm cov khoom muag overbought.
"Lub voj voog siab tshaj plaws" vs 'muaj zog rau kev sib cav ntev dua' tsis yog kev sib cav nrog ntau qhov sib tsoo thaum muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev txiav txim siab, cov neeg siv khoom tsis muaj zog, kev nce nqi, macro, thiab lub taub hau tshiab (Shanghai, Ukraine thiab lwm yam), thiab cov tub ua lag luam tam sim no nquag nrhiav. kwv yees txiav, "Rasgon hais.
Nyeem: Qhov kawg ntawm ib qho kev xav tsis thoob - Vim li cas Nvidia, Intel thiab AMD qhov kev ntsuas tau ntsib kev kub ntxhov loj heev
Klein tau taug qab qhov kev nqis peev los ntawm cov chips rau hauv software sector, sau tseg tias cov software stocks tau rov qab zoo dua li cov chip stocks los ntawm kev muag khoom dav dav hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm Lub Rau Hli. Klein tau hais tias nws tau pom "kev hloov pauv loj" tawm ntawm cov khoom lag luam nti, tom qab kev sib hloov tawm ntawm lub zog thiab cov khoom lag luam.
Hauv 31 hnub dhau los, iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
+ 4.26%
+ 4.45%
IGV,
yog nce ntau dua 6%, thaum PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
poob ntau dua 4% ntawm tib lub sijhawm. Xyoo dhau los, IGV poob qis 28% thiab SOX Performance index poob ntau dua 31%.
Hauv kev sib piv, Lub Zog Xaiv Sector SPDR ETF
+ 1.32%
+ 3.97%
XLE,
poob ze li ntawm 15% nyob rau 31 hnub dhau los, txawm tias nws tsuas yog State Street SPDR sector ETF uas nyob hauv thaj chaw zoo rau lub xyoo, nrog 30% nce. Ib yam li ntawd, Cov Khoom Siv Xaiv Sector SPDR ETF
XLB,
poob 9% nyob rau hauv 31 hnub dhau los, tab sis tsis zoo li lub zog, cov ntaub ntawv ETF poob ze li ntawm 17% rau lub xyoo.
"Ntau npaum li cas ntawm qhov no yog qhov kev yuav khoom tiag tiag tseem nyob rau hauv nqe lus nug," Klein sau tseg. "Xav tias muaj zog ntau dua li cov paj laum tau rub rov qab thiab qhov kev loj hlob zoo ua haujlwm vs cov neeg tau txais txiaj ntsig nyiaj txiag."
Mizuho lub rooj sib tw nyiaj ntsuab, txawm li cas los xij, pom qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb rau hnub Thursday ntawm "qhov loj me muag" ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, thiab qee qhov "yuav tiag tiag hauv kev loj hlob software."
"Tsis paub meej yog tias qhov no yog nyiaj los rau hauv software ntshai tsam kev txhawb nqa siab dua hauv kev lag luam lossis tsuas yog ntau qhov chaw pov tseg cia siab tias yuav muaj cov lus qhia tsis zoo thiab kev lees paub tias qhov kev thov / xaj yuav qeeb," Klein sau, ntxiv tias kev sib tham tsis ntev los no hauv lub lim tiam dhau los qhia tias cov tub ua lag luam yog ua ntau qhov tsis zoo txog cov khoom lag luam chip.
Tswvyim: Cov 7 cov khoom lag luam semiconductor no yuav nyob ze rau hauv qab. Cov qauv kab ntawv no qhia tias thaum twg thiab ntau npaum li cas lawv tuaj yeem rov qab los.
Hnub Tuesday, Morgan Stanley rov pib them nyiaj ntawm AMD nrog qhov ntsuas hnyav dhau, tam sim no lub tuam txhab peev tau ua tiav qhia Xilinx tom qab nws tau los ntawm AMD, tab sis qhov kev cia siab ntawd tsis tau txuas ntxiv mus rau lwm tus neeg tsim khoom. Rau nws feem, ntawm AMD tus kws tshuaj ntsuam hnub ob lub lis piam dhau los, tus tsim chip daig rau nws outlook tshaj tawm nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis, thiab hais tias nws cia siab tias qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm kwv yees li 20% nyob rau peb mus rau plaub xyoos tom ntej.
Lub caij khwv tau dhau los no Intel Corp.
+ 3.21%
INTC,
ob npaug ntawm nws qhov kev pom zoo 2022 txawm tias lub quarter tam sim no qhia tau hais tias tsis muaj zog. Thiab hnub Wednesday, Intel ncua nws qhov kev ua koob tsheej rau nws Ohio fab raws li kev txaus siab hauv Congress los txhawb kev lag luam chip zoo li tau ploj mus.
Nyeem: Intel yeej qhov kev sib tw tshiab kawg hauv nti siv rau huab, hais tias KeyBanc Capital Markets
Qualcomm Inc.'s
+ 4.17%
QCOM,
outlook yog bullish, tab sis cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tuaj yeem pom kev txhawb nqa hauv lub sijhawm luv luv muab lub zog hauv nws txoj kev lag luam handset. Nvidia txiav nws qhov kev xav vim yog Tuam Tshoj kaw thiab poob nyiaj hauv Russia vim yog tsov rog hauv Ukraine, thiab Phab ntsa Street coj qhov ntawd raws li kev tos ntev "txiav" rau cov Tshuag. Cisco kuj tau tshaj tawm qhov kev pom tsis zoo vim yog Tuam Tshoj kaw thiab shares pom lawv hnub phem tshaj nyob rau hauv ntau tshaj ib xyoo caum.
Chip-cov khoom lag luam tsis tshua muaj kev cia siab vim tias muaj teeb meem txuas ntxiv txuas ntxiv tuav lawv rov qab. Qhov ntawd yog qhov teeb meem nrog Applied Materials Inc.'s
+ 4.37% ,
+ 6.13% ,
+ 6.16% ,
+ 5.88%
AMAT,
ASML tuav NV
ASML,
Lam Tshawb Nrhiav Corp.
LRCX,
thiab KLA Corp.
KLAC,
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pessimism-on-chip-stocks-is-hitting-a-new-high-and-the-money-seems-to-be-flowing-toward-software- 11656097839?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo