Kev Muag Khoom Hauv Tsev Plunge mus rau qib qis tshaj nyob rau ze li ib xyoo caum-qhov phem tshaj tuaj yeem tseem tuaj

Tojsiab

Kev muag khoom hauv tsev tau poob rau lub hlis thib rau hauv lub Plaub Hlis mus rau qhov qis tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv ze li ntawm kaum xyoo, raws li cov ntaub ntawv hnub Tuesday, thiab cov kws tshaj lij ntseeg tias kev muag khoom muaj ntau chav yuav poob vim qhov nce nqi qiv nyiaj ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam vaj tsev loj hlob.

Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb

Lub koom haum National ntawm Realtors 'tseem tos kev muag khoom hauv tsev, uas ntsuas kev muag hauv tsev raws li kev kos npe kos npe, poob 3.9% rau 99.3 hauv lub Plaub Hlis, nrog kev lag luam poob 9.1% xyoo dhau los, raws li hnub Thursday. tso tawm.

Nrog Federal Reserve hiking paj laum ob zaug lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav no, nce nqi tsev qiv nyiaj pib los txwv kev yuav khoom hauv tsev, NAR tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag Lawrence Yun tau hais hauv nqe lus, taw qhia cov nqi siab dua tau ntxiv ntau npaum li $ 500 rau kev them nqi tsev txhua hli.

Yun cia siab tias tam sim no-tsev muag khoom yuav poob 9% xyoo no, tab sis yog tias cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj nce mus rau 6% los ntawm qib tam sim no ntawm kwv yees li 5.3%, nws hais tias kev muag khoom tuaj yeem poob los ntawm 15%.

Lub caij no, Yun hais tias cov nqi tsev "zoo li tsis muaj kev phom sij ntawm kev poob qis" vim tias tsis muaj vaj tse nyob tsis tu ncua thiab muag sai, nrog cov tsev teev npe feem ntau pom daim ntawv cog lus kos npe hauv ib hlis.

Ntawm qhov muaj feem cuam tshuam, Pantheon Macro tus thawj coj nyiaj txiag Ian Shepherdson tau hais hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm hnub Thursday tias kev muag khoom poob qis yuav ua raws li "kev poob qis" hauv khw muag khoom ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev, rooj tog thiab khoom siv.

"Qhov ntawd yuav tsis ua rau kev lag luam tag nrho," Shepherdson sau tseg, txawm hais tias nws ceeb toom rau cov neeg tsim vaj tsev, cov neeg muag khoom thiab cov khw muag khoom ntawm cov khoom siv vaj tse - uas muaj cov khoom lag luam. skyrocketed Thaum muaj kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb-thaum lub tsev nyob boom - "yuav raug kev txom nyem."

Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb

Keeb kwm cov nyiaj khaws cia siab thiab tsis tau pom dua los ntawm tsoomfwv cov kev txhawb nqa thiab cov paj laum qis tau pab cuam tshuam kev yuav khoom hauv tsev thaum muaj kev sib kis, tab sis cov cim qhia ntawm kev poob qis tau tshwm sim sai sai raws li Fed pib rau nws feem ntau. Txhoj puab heev paj laum hiking voj voog nyob rau hauv ob xyoo caum. Cov ntaub ntawv tshiab tshaj tawm tuaj ob hnub tom qab Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Suav Pej Xeem qhia hais tias txog 591,000 lub tsev tshiab tshiab tau muag lub hli tas los ntawm kev hloov kho raws caij nyoog txhua xyoo, poob 16.6% qis dua lub Peb Hlis tus nqi ntawm 709,000 thiab poob qis qis dua qhov kev kwv yees kwv yees ntawm 750,000.

Tsis meej

Raws li kev lag luam kub vaj tse thawb lub tsev muag khoom nruab nrab mus rau ib qho cov ntaub ntawv $ 346,900 xyoo tas los, cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev tau sib sau ua ke. Txawm hais tias nws tau nqis 20% xyoo no, S&P Homebuilders Xaiv Kev Lag Luam Index tau nce siab tshaj 40% rau cov ntaub ntawv siab nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis.

Kev Nkag Siab Hais

Yun piav qhia tias "Feem ntau ntawm cov tswv tsev tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo thiab tsis nyob rau hauv kev ntxhov siab nyiaj txiag, vim tias tau kaw rau hauv keeb kwm tsis tshua muaj paj laum," Yun piav qhia. "Txawm li cas los xij, hauv kev ua lag luam tam sim no, cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev muaj kev sib tw."

Dab Tsi Los Saib

Hnub Wednesday, feeb los ntawm Fed lub rooj sib tham ua ntej lub hli no qhia cov tub ceev xwm zoo li yuav txuas ntxiv nce cov paj laum los ntawm ib nrab-feem pua ​​taw tes hauv lub Rau Hli thiab Lub Xya Hli. "Fed feem ntau pom 50-qhov tseem ceeb-cov ntsiab lus nce qhov tsim nyog ntawm ob peb lub rooj sib tham tom ntej vim tias lawv nyob tom qab nkhaus nrog kev sib ntaus nyiaj txiag," Edward Moya, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev lag luam loj rau Oanda, tau hais hauv emailed lus, ntxiv tias lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab yog " optimistic txog kev lag luam, "tab sis "loj hlob cuam tshuam nrog kev lag luam rau Treasurys thiab cov khoom muag."

ntxiv nyeem ntawv

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