Cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom hauv tsev tsis txaus siab rau qhov nce siab thaum Lub Ib Hlis; Refinancing nqis 72% YoY

National Association of Realtors tso nws Pending Tsev Muag Khoom Index (PHSI) rau Lub Ib Hlis 2023 thiab tau sau npe nce ntawm 8.1% MoM kom nyob ntawm 82.5, qhov loj tshaj txhua hli nce txij li Lub Rau Hli 2020.

Qhov kev nce no yog qhov xav tsis thoob nrog Wall Street Journal sau tseg tias kev lag luam kwv yees nyob ib puag ncig 0.9%.

Txij li thaum kev lag luam nyiaj txiag xav tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav yooj yim rau cov tsoos 25 bps hikes, kev xav ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom tau txhim kho nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2022 thiab Lub Ib Hlis 2023, vim tias cov nqi qiv nyiaj tau qis dua.

Raws li Freddie Mac, cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj nce siab ntawm 7.08% thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2022 ua ntej poob qis li 6.09% thaum pib Lub Ob Hlis 2023.

Qhov kev poob qis no ua rau muaj kev pheej yig thiab ua rau PHSI siab dua rau lub hlis thib ob.

Raws li qhov taw qhia ntawm lub tsev nyob kev ua lag luam, kev txhim kho hauv kev muag khoom hauv tsev yog qhov kev loj hlob zoo yam tsawg kawg nyob rau lub sijhawm ze.  

Nyob rau hauv ib xyoos ib zaug, qhov Performance index poob rau nees nkaum lub hlis ncaj, los ntawm -24.1%.

Qhov no yog ib qho kev txhim kho nyob rau plaub lub hlis dhau los uas pom kev txo qis ntawm -29.8% thiab -36.8% ntawm ib xyoos twg.

Kev them taus yuav tsis kav ntev

Nws zoo nkaus li tias kev kub ntxhov nyiaj txiag tau pib tsim dua hauv qhov system.

Lub Ib Hlis cov cim suav nrog CPI, PPI thiab PCE qhia tias kev nce nqi yog nplaum, tshwj xeeb yog cov khoom vaj khoom tsev.

Nrog kev cia siab tias Fed yuav tsum tau ua nruj ua tsiv hauv lawv lub Peb Hlis lub rooj sib tham, 30-xyoo cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tau hloov pauv, nce mus txog 6.50% raws li Freddie Mac ntawm 23.^rd Lub Ob Hlis 2023.

Raws li cov xov xwm Mortgage Daily, cov no yog 6.88% raws li 24^th Lub Ob Hlis 2023.

The Mortgage Bankers Association qhia tias nyob rau lub lim tiam xaus Lub Ob Hlis 17th, daim ntawv thov qiv nyiaj tau poob qis los ntawm 13.3%, uas qhia txog qhov tsis txaus siab los nqis peev hauv tsev.

Kev ua lag luam rov qab tau nyuaj los ntawm 72% qis dua tib lub lis piam kaum ob lub hlis dhau los.

Joel Kan, Tus Lwm Thawj Coj thiab Tus Lwm Thawj Coj Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag tau sau tseg,

Lub sijhawm no ntawm lub xyoo no feem ntau yog thaum kev yuav khoom nce ntxiv tab sis dhau ob lub lis piam dhau los ... Qhov nce ntawm cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tau ua rau ntau tus neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev rov qab los rau sab nraud ib zaug ntxiv, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog thawj cov neeg yuav tsev.

Kev muag khoom zoo li yuav tsis muaj zog mus tom ntej vim muaj cov khoom siv tsawg nrog rau Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Suav Pej Xeem tau tshaj tawm tias tsuas yog 15.5% ntawm cov tsev uas muaj kev muag khoom tau ua tiav, thiab 20.7% tseem tsis tau pib.

Tsis tas li ntawd, cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom uas twb muaj lawm tau hloov kho downwards los ntawm cov margins loj hauv ob peb lub hlis dhau los qhia ntxiv qhov tsis muaj zog hauv kev ua lag luam.

Qhov tseem ceeb, cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj yuav tsum tau nce siab dua nyob rau lub hlis tom ntej, vim tias Fed raug yuam kom teb aggressively rau kev nce nqi zog.

Qhov no tsab xov xwm on Tsam tham txog kev hloov pauv hauv kev nce nyiaj txiag uas US tab tom ntsib lub hlis no.

Yog tias qhov no yuav tshwm sim, kev muag khoom hauv tsev yuav zoo li pib poob ntawm tus nqi siab dua thaum cov tub ua lag luam yuav ua tib zoo saib lub hli tom ntej cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom hauv tsev uas yog qhov qhia ua ntej ntawm kev noj qab haus huv ntawm lub khw hauv tsev.

Ntawm qhov kev ceeb toom zoo, tag nrho plaub cheeb tsam hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas pom kev txhim kho hauv kev muag khoom hauv tsev, nce ntawm 6% hauv Northeast thiab 10.1% nyob rau sab hnub poob.