P / E Ratio yog Me ntsis tus nqi hauv kev khaws cov khoom lag luam loj hlob

Puas yog koj nyob hauv cov chaw pw hav zoov uas ntseeg tias cov khoom lag luam nrog tus nqi qis-rau-cov nyiaj tau los yog kev sib tham thiab cov khoom lag luam nrog P / E siab yog suav tias yog kim? Nov yog lwm txoj hauv kev los saib nws thaum tshawb nrhiav cov khoom lag luam.

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P / E piv feem ntau yog xam los ntawm kev faib cov Tshuag tus nqi tam sim no los ntawm 12 lub hlis ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm ib feem.

Ib qho kev ntseeg ib txwm yog tias cov khoom lag luam nrog P / E qis qis qis qis thiab yuav tsum tau yuav, thiab cov khoom lag luam siab-P / E yog overvalued thiab zam.

Keeb kwm qhia tau hais tias ntau dua P / E piv feem ntau pom nyob rau hauv cov khw muag nyuj, qhov qis dua muaj nyob hauv cov lag luam dais. Ib qho tshwj xeeb yog cov khoom lag luam cyclical: Lawv tuaj yeem muaj P / E qis dua txawm tias hauv khw muag khoom.

Koj Tau Txais Qhov Koj Them

Cov khoom lag luam zoo tuaj nrog tus nqi siab dua, thiab tib yam tuaj yeem hais rau cov khoom lag luam.

Ib qho khoom lag luam tus nqi qhia txog cov tub ua lag luam pom tus nqi rau cov khoom lag luam, uas rov qab mus rau cov khoom muag thiab kev thov. Yog tias cov tub ua lag luam xav tias cov khoom lag luam muaj cov nyiaj tau los loj hlob muaj peev xwm, lawv yuav ua rau tus nqi Tshuag siab dua.

Tus nqi siab dua ua rau P / E siab dua, vim tias tus nqi yog tus lej hauv qhov piv. Cov tuam txhab lag luam nrog cov nyiaj tau los tsis tu ncua kev loj hlob thiab tsis muaj qhov cuam tshuam los thawb cov khoom lag luam siab dua tsis yog kev sib tw yog tias lawv cov nqi tsis nce.

Cov Khoom Loj Loj Loj Muaj P / E Loj

Hauv nws phau ntawv "Yuav ua li cas kom tau nyiaj hauv Tshuag," IBD tus tsim William O'Neil tau hais tias P / E piv yuav tsis qhia koj yog tias tus nqi Tshuag yuav nce lossis poob, thiab qhov piv yuav tsis yog qhov tseem ceeb hauv kev yuav cov khoom lag luam. Ib qho kev ntsuas zoo dua yog ua kom nrawm lossis ua kom cov nyiaj tau los ntawm ib qho kev loj hlob.

Los ntawm saib cov neeg yeej keeb kwm dhau xyoo lawm, yog tias koj tau tshuaj xyuas cov khoom lag luam nrog P / Es ntau dua li qhov nruab nrab ntawm kev ua lag luam, koj yuav tau plam ntau lub sijhawm loj. O'Neil cov kev tshawb fawb pom tias txij xyoo 1953 txog 1985, cov khoom lag luam ua tau zoo tshaj plaws tau pom qhov nruab nrab P / E ntawm 20 thaum lawv pib ua kom tau txais txiaj ntsig. Dow Jones Industrial Average muaj qhov nruab nrab P / E ntawm 15 tib lub sijhawm.

Raws li cov khoom lag luam no pib nce, lawv cov P / E piv tau nce mus txog 45.

Nws tau tshaj tawm ntau dua los ntawm 1990 txog 1995, thaum cov khoom lag luam loj hlob sab saum toj muaj qhov nruab nrab P / E ntawm 36 thiab nce mus rau 80s. Cov neeg ua yeeb yam zoo tshaj plaws pib nrog qhov sib piv ntawm 25-50, thiab loj hlob mus rau qib siab 60-115. Raws li koj tuaj yeem xav, nws yog qhov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws nyob rau xyoo 1990s thaum cov txiaj ntsig tau nce siab.

Yog koj saib tsis taus Microsoft (MSFT) hauv xyoo 2021 vim yog qhov sib piv P/E siab dua, koj yuav tau plam ob txoj hauv kev. Ua ntej, shares tawg tawm ntawm a khob base lub lim tiam ntawm Lub Rau Hli 25 thaum nws qhov P / E piv yog 37. Cov khoom lag luam tau nce 16% txog thaum nws nce siab thaum Lub Yim Hli thiab pib lub hauv paus tshiab.

Yog tias koj plam qhov kev yuav khoom ntawd, muaj lwm qhov kev tawm tsam lub lim tiam ntawm Lub Kaum Hli 22, thaum Microsoft's P / E yog 39. Cov Tshuag tau nce ntxiv 14% rau nws txhua lub sijhawm siab hauv lub Kaum Ib Hlis.

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