Txawm hais tias pib xyoo 2022 ntawm sab nraub qaum, stocks tau rov qab tau qee qhov av nyob rau ob peb lub lis piam dhau los vim kev nyeem ntawv nce nqi zoo li tau nce siab thiab cov tub ua lag luam kev ntseeg siab tau rov qab los.
Raws li lub Yim Hli 10, 80% ntawm S&P 500's, 500 cov khoom lag luam tau ua lag luam siab dua lawv 50-hnub Yooj Yim Mus Los Nruab Nrab (SMA), siab dua nws tau dhau los ntawm xya lub hlis dhau los, nrog rau S&P 500 tam sim no zaum ntawm 4,210.24.
Cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam feem ntau siv qhov nruab nrab txav los pab lawv nkag siab txog cov cuab yeej cuab tam lub sijhawm luv thiab ntev momentum. Keeb kwm yog ib qho kev sib tw zoo rau tus nqi txav thiab txiav txim siab qhov twg kev txhawb nqa thiab qib tsis kam nyob.
Chief Market Strategist ntawm Carson Group LLC coj mus rau Twitter rau piav qhia lub zog hauv S&P thiab nws txhais li cas rau kev lag luam keeb kwm.
"Ntau tshaj 80% ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv S&P 500 tam sim no siab dua lawv 50-hnub mus nruab nrab. Keeb kwm, thrusts zoo li no yuav qhia ntxiv zog (tshwj tsis yog lawv tshwm sim nyob rau hauv pem hauv ntej ntawm 100 xyoo kev sib kis). Lub sijhawm no puas yuav txawv? Kuv hais tsis yog, tab sis koj xav li cas?”
Xws li spikes feem ntau qhia txog kev lag luam noj qab haus huv tab sis tuaj yeem ua rau lub sijhawm luv luv rau cov tub ua lag luam tab tom nrhiav txav lawv cov nyiaj mus rau lwm yam khoom muaj nqis.
Peak inflation
Consumer Price Index (CPI) tso tawm Lub Yim Hli 10 tau pom tias kev nce nqi tuaj yeem nce siab; Tsis tas li ntawd, nrog US passing Txoj cai txo nqi nce nqi, cov khoom lag luam tau ntsib kev dhia hauv kev ua lag luam kawg, tej zaum qhia tau tias muaj txiaj ntsig ntau hauv khw.
Keeb kwm, kev nce nqi siab tshaj feem ntau qhia txog lub sijhawm pib yuav cov khoom lag luam thiab rau cov tub ua lag luam kom rov qab mus rau hauv kev lag luam. Andreas Steno Larsen, tus tswv lag luam macro lag luam, thiab tus editor ntawm Real Vision, tweeted ib daim ntawv qhia qhia tias kev yuav khoom tshwm sim ib zaug kev nce nqi nce siab hauv xyoo 1974 thiab 1975.
"Nyob rau xyoo 1974-1975, qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv kev nce nqi yog THE yuav teeb liab rau kev sib npaug. Keeb kwm tsis rov hais dua nws tus kheej, tab sis nws feem ntau rhymes. "
Ntshai tsam thiab ntshaw quab yuam
Kev ntshai thiab kev ntshaw index, tsim los ntawm CNN Nyiaj, qhia txog qhov twg ntawm cov kev xav tseem ceeb cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam, feem ntau siv los ntsuas seb lub khw lag luam puas tsim nyog tus nqi. Ib lub hlis dhau los, qhov ntsuas tau zaum ntawm 27 lossis 'kev ntshai,' qhia tias cov tub ua lag luam tsis kam koom nrog hauv kev ua lag luam.
Lub caij no, qhov ntsuas tam sim no nyeem 52 lossis 'nruab nrab' txav ze rau 'kev ntshaw,' qhia tias cov tub ua lag luam tuaj yeem muaj ntau dua. bullish ntawm cov khoom lag luam tshaj li lawv tsuas yog ib hlis dhau los.
Tsis tas li ntawd, ntau yam kev qhia thiab kev txheeb xyuas keeb kwm ntawm cov khw lag luam qhia tau hais tias kev lag luam tuaj yeem ua rau nce mus.
Hauv qhov tseem ceeb, cov neeg koom nrog kev lag luam tuaj yeem pib saib lawv cov npe saib thiab nrhiav lawv qhov kev ntseeg siab tshaj plaws thiab pib 'nibbling,' thaum ua kom lub ntsej muag ntawm kev lag luam dav, cov cim qhia, thiab kev txhim kho thoob ntiaj teb los ntsuas seb lawv tuaj yeem ua rau lawv txav mus los.
Disclaimer: Cov ntsiab lus ntawm lub xaib no yuav tsum tsis txhob suav hais tias yog cov lus qhia txog kev nqis peev. Kev nqis peev yog speculative. Thaum kev nqis peev, koj cov peev nyiaj muaj kev pheej hmoo.
Tau qhov twg los: https://finbold.com/over-80-of-stocks-in-the-sp-500-now-show-positive-signs-of-revival/