Kev lag luam loj loj drawdowns zoo li tam sim no feem ntau xaus nrog kev muag frenzy, hu ua capitulation.
Yog li, koj yuav xav paub yuav ua li cas pom qhov capitulation - lub cim qhia tias nws muaj kev nyab xeeb dua los pib yuav. Txhawm rau kom paub, Kuv tsis ntev los no tau tshawb xyuas nrog ntau tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam uas kuv nyiam thiab cov kws tshaj lij. Lawv muab cov ntsuas hauv qab no.
Nyob rau hauv kev ncaj ncees rau lawv, lawv sawv daws nrhiav ib thaum lawv tseem ntawm kev lees paub cov cim.
"Nws yog pob tawb ntawm cov khoom, tab sis thaum lawv pib pawg, nws ua rau kuv muaj kev ntseeg siab dua," Larry McDonald ntawm Dais Traps Report. Hauv kev txaus siab ntawm brevity, txawm li cas los xij, kuv hais tsuas yog ib lossis ob lub cim txhua.
Saib rau qhov tsis zoo ntawm cov tub ua lag luam
kev txiav txim: Peb tseem tsis tau muaj.
Txawm hais tias ntau tus neeg ua lag luam kev xav pom kev xav pom pom qhov tsis zoo, koj tsis pom tib lub teeb liab thaum koj saib lawv yog dab tsi ua tiag tiag nrog lawv cov nyiaj, hais tias Michael Hartnett, Bank of America tus thawj coj ntawm kev nqis peev zoo.
Txij li thaum pib ntawm 2021, cov tub ua lag luam tau muab $ 1.5 trillion rau hauv cov peev nyiaj sib koom thiab pauv cov nyiaj pauv pauv. Txog tam sim no, lawv tsuas yog rho tawm ib ncig ntawm $ 35 nphom.
Hartnett hais tias, "Qhov ntawd tsis yog qhov kev txiav txim siab.
Rau qhov ntawd, nws xav pom $ 300 nphom hauv kev rho tawm, tshwj xeeb yog tias nws tshwm sim sai. Ib yam li ntawd, kev faib khoom yog nyob ntawm 63% ntawm cov ntaub ntawv hauv Bank of America tus neeg siv khoom ntiag tug network. Rau capitulation, peb yuav tsum pom qhov poob mus rau nruab nrab-50% ntau. "Qhov no tsis yog nws xwb," nws hais.
Nrhiav lub ncov ntshai index
kev txiav txim: Tsis tau muaj.
Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index
VIX,
-1.30%
taug qab cov neeg ua lag luam ntshai, raws li qhov chaw nyob hauv kev xaiv lag luam. Siab dua txhais tau tias ntshai ntau dua. Lub VIX tsis ntev los no tau kov 35, tab sis qhov ntawd tsis siab txaus rau lub teeb liab capitulation, hais tias Bob Doll, tus thawj coj peev ntawm Crossmark Global Investments. Nws xav pom txav ze rau 40. Nws kuj xav pom ntau cov khoom lag luam ntaus 52 lub lis piam qis, thiab ntau cov khoom lag luam ua lag luam qis dua lawv qhov nruab nrab txav.
"Peb muaj pov thawj ntawm ib co capitulation, tab sis tej zaum tsis txaus los hu nws ib tug tseem ceeb hauv qab," hais tias Doll.
Saib rau qhov sib npaug ntawm qhov muab / hu piv
kev txiav txim: Tsis tau muaj.
Cov tub lag luam yuav muab cov kev xaiv thaum lawv poob qis. Lawv yuav hu rau ib tug thawj koom ruam uas stocks yuav nce. Yog li, tag nrho qhov muab / hu piv qhia koj li cas cov tub ua lag luam ntshai heev. Siab dua txhais tau tias ntshai ntau dua. Leuthold Group tus thawj tswj hwm kev nqis peev Doug Ramsey hu qhov no nws "tus taw qhia suab puam kob."
Txhawm rau ua kom tsis muaj zog, nws taug qab qhov nruab nrab peb hnub. Txij li thaum 2014, capitulation bottoms tau tshwm sim thaum qhov piv txwv no tau hloov mus rau 0.85 lossis siab dua, raws li koj tuaj yeem pom hauv daim duab hauv qab no los ntawm Ramsey. Nws tsis ntev los no nyob ib ncig ntawm 0.7. Yog li, nws tseem tsis tau muaj.
“Kev puas tsuaj ntau heev tau ua tiav. Cov tub ua lag luam ntshai, tab sis tsis ntshai tiag tiag, "Ramsey hais. "Kuv tsis xav tias peb nyob ze rau qhov kawg qis."
Tshawb nrhiav qhov nce siab ntawm tus lej ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau pov tseg
kev txiav txim: Qhov qis yog nyob rau hauv - tradable bounce ua ntej.
Txhawm rau txheeb xyuas qhov capitulations, McDonald ntawm Dais Traps Report taug qab pes tsawg cov khoom lag luam poob ntau. Rau qhov nws hu ua "classic pukes," nws nrhiav qhov kev sib cog lus ntse ntawm cov khoom lag luam ntawm New York Tshuag Txauv (NYSE) saum lawv 200-hnub qhov nruab nrab txav. Thaum qhov no poob rau hauv 20% ntau, qhov no qhia txog capitulation. Nws tsis ntev los no ntawm 28%. Qhov ntawd yog ze txaus los txiav txim siab txog cov kev lees paub hauv qab no.
McDonald hais txog qhov nce siab ntawm cov neeg tsis txaus siab rau kev nce qib ntawm NYSE (xya mus rau ib qho), ib qho ntawm cov qib siab tshaj plaws hauv tsib xyoos dhau los. Thiab tus lej loj ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsis ntev los no tsoo qhov qis tshiab ntawm Nasdaq. Qhov ntawd yog 1,261 thaum lub Tsib Hlis 9, kuj nyob ze rau qhov siab tshaj tsib xyoos dhau los.
Lub upshot: "Muaj 95% lub caij nyoog peb tau pom capitulation rau kev lag luam bounce," xaus McDonald. Nws tuaj yeem tsim 20% -30% upside txav.
Tab sis qhov no tsuas yog ib qho kev sib tw hauv kev lag luam dais ruaj khov uas yuav ua rau ib xyoos lossis ob xyoos.
Nws hais ob qho laj thawj. Ua ntej, feem ntau cov tub ua lag luam poob qis heev, thiab lawv tsuas yog xav tau lawv cov nyiaj rov qab.
McDonald hais tias, "Tus neeg ua lag luam nruab nrab tau raug teeb meem tam sim no," "Lawv yuav muag lub zog."
Tom ntej no, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav "tawg ib yam dab tsi" nrog nws cov nqi nce siab. Cov neeg sib tw zoo: Ib yam dab tsi hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev lag luam.
McDonald hais tias "Koj muaj skyscrapers nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov loj lub zos khoob, thiab cov nyiaj txais yuav pib los txog," McDonald hais. "Muaj yuav muaj lub voj voog loj loj."
Nrhiav ib lub suab nrov nrov
kev txiav txim: Tsis tau muaj.
Ib qho txiaj ntsig zoo ntawm kev poob siab yog "muag qhov siab tshaj plaws" cim los ntawm kev txav mus los ntawm cov ntim loj, hais tias Martin Pring, tus tshaj tawm ntawm InterMarket Review peev tsab ntawv thiab tus sau ntawm "Investment Psychology Explained," ib qho ntawm kuv nyiam cov phau ntawv lag luam. Feem ntau qhov no tuaj yeem tshwm sim nrog qhov loj whoosh thaum sawv ntxov thiab rov qab los, ua raws li tus txheeb ze nyob ntsiag to. Txog tam sim no, peb tsis tau pom cov khoom ntim siab muag climax.
Saib rau qhov poob loj hauv cov nuj nqis
kev txiav txim: Tsis tau muaj.
Jason Goepfert ntawm SentimenTrader nyiam pom qhov txo qis hauv tus account brokerage margin nuj nqis raws li kev kos npe ntawm capitulation. Loj npaum li cas? Nws tab tom nrhiav rau 10% poob xyoo dhau xyoo. Qhov poob tam sim no tsuas yog 3% rau $ 799 billion.
Goepfert muaj tsawg kawg yog 12 qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas, thiab tsuas yog peb qhia peb nyob ntawd. Lawv yog: Thawj pej xeem muab kev kub ntxhov; ob peb lub lis piam sib law liag ntawm $ 10 nphom nyiaj tau los ntawm kev ncaj ncees; thiab qhov tsawg kawg nkaus hauv kev soj ntsuam kev xav ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam.
Ntawm lwm cov cim, nws tseem xav pom tsawg kawg 40% ntawm NYSE cov khoom lag luam ntawm 52-lub lim tiam qis (peb nyob ze 30%); tsawg dua 20% ntawm S&P 500
SPX,
-1.65%
stocks trading saum lawv 200-hnub txav nruab nrab (tam sim no 31%); thiab ib qho kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv S&P 500.
Thaum cov tub ua lag luam ntxub txhua yam, nws yog ib qho kev paub tseeb tias lawv yuav tsis tuaj yeem tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau dua.
Michael Brush yog tus sau xov xwm rau MarketWatch. Nws tshaj tawm tsab ntawv xov xwm, Txhuam Txog ntawm Cov Khoom Loj. Ua raws nws ntawm Twitter @mbrushstocks.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-is-it-safe-to-start-buying-stocks-again-were-not-there-yet-but-these-are-the-six- signs-to-look-for-11652297223?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Tswv yim: Thaum twg nws muaj kev nyab xeeb pib yuav cov khoom lag luam dua? Peb tseem tsis tau nyob ntawd, tab sis cov no yog rau lub cim rau nrhiav
Kev lag luam loj loj drawdowns zoo li tam sim no feem ntau xaus nrog kev muag frenzy, hu ua capitulation.
Yog li, koj yuav xav paub yuav ua li cas pom qhov capitulation - lub cim qhia tias nws muaj kev nyab xeeb dua los pib yuav. Txhawm rau kom paub, Kuv tsis ntev los no tau tshawb xyuas nrog ntau tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam uas kuv nyiam thiab cov kws tshaj lij. Lawv muab cov ntsuas hauv qab no.
Nyob rau hauv kev ncaj ncees rau lawv, lawv sawv daws nrhiav ib thaum lawv tseem ntawm kev lees paub cov cim.
"Nws yog pob tawb ntawm cov khoom, tab sis thaum lawv pib pawg, nws ua rau kuv muaj kev ntseeg siab dua," Larry McDonald ntawm Dais Traps Report. Hauv kev txaus siab ntawm brevity, txawm li cas los xij, kuv hais tsuas yog ib lossis ob lub cim txhua.
Saib rau qhov tsis zoo ntawm cov tub ua lag luam
kev txiav txim: Peb tseem tsis tau muaj.
Txawm hais tias ntau tus neeg ua lag luam kev xav pom kev xav pom pom qhov tsis zoo, koj tsis pom tib lub teeb liab thaum koj saib lawv yog dab tsi ua tiag tiag nrog lawv cov nyiaj, hais tias Michael Hartnett, Bank of America tus thawj coj ntawm kev nqis peev zoo.
Txij li thaum pib ntawm 2021, cov tub ua lag luam tau muab $ 1.5 trillion rau hauv cov peev nyiaj sib koom thiab pauv cov nyiaj pauv pauv. Txog tam sim no, lawv tsuas yog rho tawm ib ncig ntawm $ 35 nphom.
Hartnett hais tias, "Qhov ntawd tsis yog qhov kev txiav txim siab.
Rau qhov ntawd, nws xav pom $ 300 nphom hauv kev rho tawm, tshwj xeeb yog tias nws tshwm sim sai. Ib yam li ntawd, kev faib khoom yog nyob ntawm 63% ntawm cov ntaub ntawv hauv Bank of America tus neeg siv khoom ntiag tug network. Rau capitulation, peb yuav tsum pom qhov poob mus rau nruab nrab-50% ntau. "Qhov no tsis yog nws xwb," nws hais.
Nrhiav lub ncov ntshai index
kev txiav txim: Tsis tau muaj.
Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index
-1.30%
VIX,
taug qab cov neeg ua lag luam ntshai, raws li qhov chaw nyob hauv kev xaiv lag luam. Siab dua txhais tau tias ntshai ntau dua. Lub VIX tsis ntev los no tau kov 35, tab sis qhov ntawd tsis siab txaus rau lub teeb liab capitulation, hais tias Bob Doll, tus thawj coj peev ntawm Crossmark Global Investments. Nws xav pom txav ze rau 40. Nws kuj xav pom ntau cov khoom lag luam ntaus 52 lub lis piam qis, thiab ntau cov khoom lag luam ua lag luam qis dua lawv qhov nruab nrab txav.
"Peb muaj pov thawj ntawm ib co capitulation, tab sis tej zaum tsis txaus los hu nws ib tug tseem ceeb hauv qab," hais tias Doll.
Saib rau qhov sib npaug ntawm qhov muab / hu piv
kev txiav txim: Tsis tau muaj.
Cov tub lag luam yuav muab cov kev xaiv thaum lawv poob qis. Lawv yuav hu rau ib tug thawj koom ruam uas stocks yuav nce. Yog li, tag nrho qhov muab / hu piv qhia koj li cas cov tub ua lag luam ntshai heev. Siab dua txhais tau tias ntshai ntau dua. Leuthold Group tus thawj tswj hwm kev nqis peev Doug Ramsey hu qhov no nws "tus taw qhia suab puam kob."
Txhawm rau ua kom tsis muaj zog, nws taug qab qhov nruab nrab peb hnub. Txij li thaum 2014, capitulation bottoms tau tshwm sim thaum qhov piv txwv no tau hloov mus rau 0.85 lossis siab dua, raws li koj tuaj yeem pom hauv daim duab hauv qab no los ntawm Ramsey. Nws tsis ntev los no nyob ib ncig ntawm 0.7. Yog li, nws tseem tsis tau muaj.
“Kev puas tsuaj ntau heev tau ua tiav. Cov tub ua lag luam ntshai, tab sis tsis ntshai tiag tiag, "Ramsey hais. "Kuv tsis xav tias peb nyob ze rau qhov kawg qis."
Tshawb nrhiav qhov nce siab ntawm tus lej ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau pov tseg
kev txiav txim: Qhov qis yog nyob rau hauv - tradable bounce ua ntej.
Txhawm rau txheeb xyuas qhov capitulations, McDonald ntawm Dais Traps Report taug qab pes tsawg cov khoom lag luam poob ntau. Rau qhov nws hu ua "classic pukes," nws nrhiav qhov kev sib cog lus ntse ntawm cov khoom lag luam ntawm New York Tshuag Txauv (NYSE) saum lawv 200-hnub qhov nruab nrab txav. Thaum qhov no poob rau hauv 20% ntau, qhov no qhia txog capitulation. Nws tsis ntev los no ntawm 28%. Qhov ntawd yog ze txaus los txiav txim siab txog cov kev lees paub hauv qab no.
McDonald hais txog qhov nce siab ntawm cov neeg tsis txaus siab rau kev nce qib ntawm NYSE (xya mus rau ib qho), ib qho ntawm cov qib siab tshaj plaws hauv tsib xyoos dhau los. Thiab tus lej loj ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsis ntev los no tsoo qhov qis tshiab ntawm Nasdaq. Qhov ntawd yog 1,261 thaum lub Tsib Hlis 9, kuj nyob ze rau qhov siab tshaj tsib xyoos dhau los.
Lub upshot: "Muaj 95% lub caij nyoog peb tau pom capitulation rau kev lag luam bounce," xaus McDonald. Nws tuaj yeem tsim 20% -30% upside txav.
Tab sis qhov no tsuas yog ib qho kev sib tw hauv kev lag luam dais ruaj khov uas yuav ua rau ib xyoos lossis ob xyoos.
Nws hais ob qho laj thawj. Ua ntej, feem ntau cov tub ua lag luam poob qis heev, thiab lawv tsuas yog xav tau lawv cov nyiaj rov qab.
McDonald hais tias, "Tus neeg ua lag luam nruab nrab tau raug teeb meem tam sim no," "Lawv yuav muag lub zog."
Tom ntej no, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav "tawg ib yam dab tsi" nrog nws cov nqi nce siab. Cov neeg sib tw zoo: Ib yam dab tsi hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev lag luam.
McDonald hais tias "Koj muaj skyscrapers nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov loj lub zos khoob, thiab cov nyiaj txais yuav pib los txog," McDonald hais. "Muaj yuav muaj lub voj voog loj loj."
Nrhiav ib lub suab nrov nrov
kev txiav txim: Tsis tau muaj.
Ib qho txiaj ntsig zoo ntawm kev poob siab yog "muag qhov siab tshaj plaws" cim los ntawm kev txav mus los ntawm cov ntim loj, hais tias Martin Pring, tus tshaj tawm ntawm InterMarket Review peev tsab ntawv thiab tus sau ntawm "Investment Psychology Explained," ib qho ntawm kuv nyiam cov phau ntawv lag luam. Feem ntau qhov no tuaj yeem tshwm sim nrog qhov loj whoosh thaum sawv ntxov thiab rov qab los, ua raws li tus txheeb ze nyob ntsiag to. Txog tam sim no, peb tsis tau pom cov khoom ntim siab muag climax.
Saib rau qhov poob loj hauv cov nuj nqis
kev txiav txim: Tsis tau muaj.
Jason Goepfert ntawm SentimenTrader nyiam pom qhov txo qis hauv tus account brokerage margin nuj nqis raws li kev kos npe ntawm capitulation. Loj npaum li cas? Nws tab tom nrhiav rau 10% poob xyoo dhau xyoo. Qhov poob tam sim no tsuas yog 3% rau $ 799 billion.
Goepfert muaj tsawg kawg yog 12 qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas, thiab tsuas yog peb qhia peb nyob ntawd. Lawv yog: Thawj pej xeem muab kev kub ntxhov; ob peb lub lis piam sib law liag ntawm $ 10 nphom nyiaj tau los ntawm kev ncaj ncees; thiab qhov tsawg kawg nkaus hauv kev soj ntsuam kev xav ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam.
Ntawm lwm cov cim, nws tseem xav pom tsawg kawg 40% ntawm NYSE cov khoom lag luam ntawm 52-lub lim tiam qis (peb nyob ze 30%); tsawg dua 20% ntawm S&P 500
-1.65%
SPX,
stocks trading saum lawv 200-hnub txav nruab nrab (tam sim no 31%); thiab ib qho kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv S&P 500.
Thaum cov tub ua lag luam ntxub txhua yam, nws yog ib qho kev paub tseeb tias lawv yuav tsis tuaj yeem tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau dua.
Michael Brush yog tus sau xov xwm rau MarketWatch. Nws tshaj tawm tsab ntawv xov xwm, Txhuam Txog ntawm Cov Khoom Loj. Ua raws nws ntawm Twitter @mbrushstocks.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-is-it-safe-to-start-buying-stocks-again-were-not-there-yet-but-these-are-the-six- signs-to-look-for-11652297223?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo