"Gold yuav txuas ntxiv mus txog thaum lub sijhawm ua lag luam kub ua lag luam poob qis dua."
Qhov ntawd yog cov kab lus tseem ceeb ntawm ob kab ntawv kawg kuv tau mob siab rau kev tsom xam qhov tsis sib xws ntawm kev xav kub, ib qho thaum pib lub Xya Hli thiab lwm yam thaum pib lub Tsib Hlis. Nws yuav tsis muaj ntau yam uas yuav hais ib yam li niaj hnub no.
Thiab tawm tsam kub heev muaj nyob rau ob peb lub hlis dhau los. Txij li thaum nws siab tshaj $ 2,040 hauv lub Peb Hlis, qhov chaw cog lus kub
GC00,
+ 0.78%
tau poob ntau dua $ 300, suav nrog lwm $ 65 lub lim tiam dhau los no.
Nws yuav siv li cas rau daim duab kev xav los txhawb kev sib tw loj hauv kub? Cov lus teb yog muaj nyob rau hauv daim ntawv qhia nrog, uas npaj qhov nruab nrab pom zoo kub-kev ua lag luam raug cov theem ntawm ib tug subset ntawm lub sij hawm luv luv kub timers soj ntsuam los ntawm kuv ruaj. (Qhov nruab nrab no yog qhov sawv cev los ntawm Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, lossis HGNSI.)
Ua kom pom tseeb, tshwj xeeb, ntawm thaj chaw ntxoov ntxoo hauv qab ntawm daim ntawv qhia, uas sawv cev qis tshaj 10% ntawm keeb kwm HGNSI nyeem. Qhov no yog qhov ntau yam uas, nyob rau hauv cov kab ua ntej, kuv tau siv los qhia txog qhov kev xav phem ntau dhau - uas yog bullish los ntawm qhov tsis sib xws ntawm qhov pom. Daim ntawv ceeb toom tias HGNSI thaum Lub Xya Hli tsuas yog luv luv thiab qis qis mus rau hauv thaj tsam ntawm qhov kev xav phem heev thiab tom qab ntawd, yuav luag sai li sai tau, sawv rov qab los ntawm nws. HGNSI tam sim no sawv ntawm 12th feem pua ntawm cov keeb kwm faib, me ntsis saum toj no cheeb tsam.
Qhov ntawd yog qhov zoo kawg li, vim tias kub tau ua qhov tsis txaus ntseeg nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm qhov kev nce nqi phem tshaj plaws hauv lub tebchaws no hauv ntau dua 40 xyoo. Txij li thaum koj xav tias qhov no paradigmatic inflation hedge yuav nce siab, kub qhov kev ua haujlwm tsis txaus ntseeg xav tias yuav tsum ua rau muaj kev poob siab thiab kev poob siab ntawm cov tub lag luam kub. Tab sis, rau feem ntau, nws tsis muaj.
Ua ntej cov neeg tsis sib haum xeeb tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev ntxhov siab, HGNSI yuav tsum tau nqis mus tob rau hauv qab ntawm nws cov keeb kwm kev faib tawm, thiab tom qab ntawd nyob ntawd ntau tshaj li ob peb hnub. Nws yuav tshwj xeeb tshaj yog txhawb kom nws nyob twj ywm nyob rau hauv lub wake ntawm kub thawj zaug sim mus rally. Qhov no, ntawm qhov tod tes, tsis tau muaj qhov xwm txheej tsis ntev los no, nrog ntau lub sijhawm kub kub tau mob siab rau tig rov qab los ntawm thawj lub cim ntawm lub zog.
Cov hauv qab loj feem ntau yog tus cwj pwm los ntawm capitulation, thaum cov tub luam tag nrho tso thiab pov rau hauv cov phuam. Qhov ntawd yog thaum lawv hais tias lawv yuav tsis ntseeg kub dua, tau raug hlawv los ntawm nws ntau zaus ua ntej. Ironically, raws li contrarians yuav ua pov thawj, uas yog thaum lub hauv qab yuav zaum kawg nyob rau hauv.
Peb tuaj yeem nyob ze. Peb tsuas yog tseem tsis tau muaj, yog li tsis txhob dhia phom.
Yuav ua li cas txog kev lag luam timers nyob rau hauv lwm yam khoom muaj nqis?
Kev ua lag luam kub tsuas yog ib qho ntawm cov arenas uas kuv ruaj khov taug qab kev lag luam timers 'qhov nruab nrab raug cuam tshuam. Peb lwm tus yog cov lag luam loj hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas (tsom mus rau cov qauv piv txwv xws li S&P 500
SPX,
-1.07%
), Nasdaq Tshuag lag luam (Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-1.31%
thiab QQQ
QQQ,
-1.41%
), thiab US daim ntawv cog lus lag luam (kev lag luam sib sau ua lag luam qib kev lag luam). Daim duab hauv qab no qhia txog qhov twg cov timers tam sim no sawv hauv tag nrho plaub qhov chaw.
Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv].
Tswv yim: Thaum cov tub ua lag luam tig qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm cov kub - uas yuav tshwm sim sai sai - cia siab tias yuav muaj kev hloov pauv loj hauv cov nqi
"Gold yuav txuas ntxiv mus txog thaum lub sijhawm ua lag luam kub ua lag luam poob qis dua."
Qhov ntawd yog cov kab lus tseem ceeb ntawm ob kab ntawv kawg kuv tau mob siab rau kev tsom xam qhov tsis sib xws ntawm kev xav kub, ib qho thaum pib lub Xya Hli thiab lwm yam thaum pib lub Tsib Hlis. Nws yuav tsis muaj ntau yam uas yuav hais ib yam li niaj hnub no.
Thiab tawm tsam kub heev muaj nyob rau ob peb lub hlis dhau los. Txij li thaum nws siab tshaj $ 2,040 hauv lub Peb Hlis, qhov chaw cog lus kub
+ 0.78%
GC00,
tau poob ntau dua $ 300, suav nrog lwm $ 65 lub lim tiam dhau los no.
Nws yuav siv li cas rau daim duab kev xav los txhawb kev sib tw loj hauv kub? Cov lus teb yog muaj nyob rau hauv daim ntawv qhia nrog, uas npaj qhov nruab nrab pom zoo kub-kev ua lag luam raug cov theem ntawm ib tug subset ntawm lub sij hawm luv luv kub timers soj ntsuam los ntawm kuv ruaj. (Qhov nruab nrab no yog qhov sawv cev los ntawm Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, lossis HGNSI.)
Ua kom pom tseeb, tshwj xeeb, ntawm thaj chaw ntxoov ntxoo hauv qab ntawm daim ntawv qhia, uas sawv cev qis tshaj 10% ntawm keeb kwm HGNSI nyeem. Qhov no yog qhov ntau yam uas, nyob rau hauv cov kab ua ntej, kuv tau siv los qhia txog qhov kev xav phem ntau dhau - uas yog bullish los ntawm qhov tsis sib xws ntawm qhov pom. Daim ntawv ceeb toom tias HGNSI thaum Lub Xya Hli tsuas yog luv luv thiab qis qis mus rau hauv thaj tsam ntawm qhov kev xav phem heev thiab tom qab ntawd, yuav luag sai li sai tau, sawv rov qab los ntawm nws. HGNSI tam sim no sawv ntawm 12th feem pua ntawm cov keeb kwm faib, me ntsis saum toj no cheeb tsam.
Qhov ntawd yog qhov zoo kawg li, vim tias kub tau ua qhov tsis txaus ntseeg nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm qhov kev nce nqi phem tshaj plaws hauv lub tebchaws no hauv ntau dua 40 xyoo. Txij li thaum koj xav tias qhov no paradigmatic inflation hedge yuav nce siab, kub qhov kev ua haujlwm tsis txaus ntseeg xav tias yuav tsum ua rau muaj kev poob siab thiab kev poob siab ntawm cov tub lag luam kub. Tab sis, rau feem ntau, nws tsis muaj.
Ua ntej cov neeg tsis sib haum xeeb tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev ntxhov siab, HGNSI yuav tsum tau nqis mus tob rau hauv qab ntawm nws cov keeb kwm kev faib tawm, thiab tom qab ntawd nyob ntawd ntau tshaj li ob peb hnub. Nws yuav tshwj xeeb tshaj yog txhawb kom nws nyob twj ywm nyob rau hauv lub wake ntawm kub thawj zaug sim mus rally. Qhov no, ntawm qhov tod tes, tsis tau muaj qhov xwm txheej tsis ntev los no, nrog ntau lub sijhawm kub kub tau mob siab rau tig rov qab los ntawm thawj lub cim ntawm lub zog.
Cov hauv qab loj feem ntau yog tus cwj pwm los ntawm capitulation, thaum cov tub luam tag nrho tso thiab pov rau hauv cov phuam. Qhov ntawd yog thaum lawv hais tias lawv yuav tsis ntseeg kub dua, tau raug hlawv los ntawm nws ntau zaus ua ntej. Ironically, raws li contrarians yuav ua pov thawj, uas yog thaum lub hauv qab yuav zaum kawg nyob rau hauv.
Peb tuaj yeem nyob ze. Peb tsuas yog tseem tsis tau muaj, yog li tsis txhob dhia phom.
Yuav ua li cas txog kev lag luam timers nyob rau hauv lwm yam khoom muaj nqis?
Kev ua lag luam kub tsuas yog ib qho ntawm cov arenas uas kuv ruaj khov taug qab kev lag luam timers 'qhov nruab nrab raug cuam tshuam. Peb lwm tus yog cov lag luam loj hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas (tsom mus rau cov qauv piv txwv xws li S&P 500
-1.07%
-1.31%
-1.41%
SPX,
), Nasdaq Tshuag lag luam (Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
thiab QQQ
QQQ,
), thiab US daim ntawv cog lus lag luam (kev lag luam sib sau ua lag luam qib kev lag luam). Daim duab hauv qab no qhia txog qhov twg cov timers tam sim no sawv hauv tag nrho plaub qhov chaw.
Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv].
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-investors-turn-maximum-bearish-on-gold-which-might-happen-soon-expect-a-big-turnaround-in-prices-11662129009? siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo