Tswv yim: Lub lim tiam no loj rebound hauv stocks txhais tau tias lub lag luam dais ciaj sia thiab zoo

Yuav ua li cas yog li ntawd?

Nws yog vim hais tias txhua hnub spikes tshwm sim ntau zaus thaum lub sij hawm dais dua li bull markets. Yog li yog tias koj yuav tsum tau twv ntawm kev ua lag luam tus qauv loj thaum paub tsis muaj dab tsi ntau tshaj qhov tseeb ntawm Dow Jones Industrial Average's
DJIA,
+ 2.80%
700-ntxiv-point nce nyob rau hauv txhua hnub Monday thiab Tuesday kev ua lag luam kev sib tham, koj thawj koom ruam yuav tsum yog tus qauv tseem qis.

Xav txog qhov kuv tau pom los ntawm kev txheeb xyuas qhov kev faib tawm ntawm 100 feem pua ​​​​qhov loj tshaj plaws txhua hnub S&P 500
SPX,
+ 3.06%
tau txais txiaj ntsig txij li xyoo 1928. Koj yuav raug zam rau kev xav tias cov hnub ua lag luam loj no tshwm sim randomly, txij li kev ua lag luam niaj hnub feem ntau suav tias yog me ntsis ntau dua li cov suab nrov.

Tab sis yog tias lawv tau tshwm sim random, koj yuav xav tias, txheeb cais, tsuas yog 30 ntawm 100 qhov kev nce ntxiv yuav tshwm sim thaum lub lag luam dais.

Qhov tseeb, 58% tau tshwm sim thaum lub lag luam dais. Qhov ntawd yog ze li ob npaug ntawm qhov koj xav tau yog tias qhov txiaj ntsig zoo li no tshwm sim random, raws li koj tuaj yeem pom los ntawm daim ntawv qhia, hauv qab no.

'Cov piv txwv zoo meej'

Qhov no dais-kev ua lag luam concentration ntawm kev loj hlob txhua hnub yog ntau tshaj tawm rau Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
+ 3.34%,
Raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom los ntawm Cornell Capital.

Lub tuam txhab tsom mus rau peb lub xeem Nasdaq dais lag luam ua ntej xyoo no: Cov no yog cov lag luam dais uas tshwm sim los ntawm 2000 txog 2002, 2007 txog 2009, thiab txij Lub Ob Hlis mus txog Lub Peb Hlis 2020. Tsuas yog 8% ntawm hnub ua lag luam txij li Nasdaq Composite Index. tau tsim nyob rau hauv 1971 tau tshwm sim nyob rau hauv peb lub lag luam dais.

Txawm li cas los xij, raws li Cornell Capital qhov kev tshuaj xyuas, 80% ntawm 40 qhov kev sib tw loj tshaj plaws nyob rau ib hnub hauv Nasdaq Composite tau tshwm sim nyob rau hauv ib qho ntawm peb lub lag luam dais. Qhov ntawd yog 10 npaug li qhov koj xav tau ntawm qhov kev xav tias kev sib sau ua ke tshwm sim random.

Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm Cornell Capital daim ntawv tshaj tawm rau kev ua lag luam niaj hnub no yog qhov cuam tshuam. Hauv email, Bradford Cornell, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm UCLA thiab tus kws tshaj lij tus kws tshaj lij ntawm lub tuam txhab, tau hais rau kuv tias qhov kev tawm tsam rau hnub Monday thiab Tuesday ntawm lub lim tiam no yog "cov piv txwv zoo tshaj" ntawm qhov nws tau sau txog hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom ntawd.

Qhov kev tawm tsam "tsis tas txhais tau tias lub sijhawm phem dhau lawm," nws hais.

Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv].