Tswv yim: Muaj kev muaj peev xwm ua lag luam dais hauv cov khoom lag luam tau dhau los vim cov tub ua lag luam tau tso kev cia siab

Capitulation tshwm sim thaum cov tub ua lag luam tso tseg vim kev poob siab, qhov kawg ntawm kev xav ntawm dais lag luam kev tu siab. Yog tsis muaj nws, qhov txawv txav yog qhov tseem ceeb tias txhua qhov kev sib tw yog tab sis blip. Thaum kuv zaum kawg mob siab rau ib kem rau qhov kev tsom xam tsis sib xws ntawm kev xav ntawm kev ua lag luam Tshuag ob lub hlis dhau los, capitulation tseem tsis tau tshwm sim.

Qhov ntawd tau hloov lawm.

Txhawm rau tshuaj xyuas, qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas tau tawm ntawm ob qhov kev xav tau ntsuas kuv lub tuam txhab suav. Thawj qhov qhia txog qhov nruab nrab pom zoo rau kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov sijhawm luv luv uas tsom mus rau kev lag luam dav, raws li sawv cev los ntawm cov qauv ntsuas xws li S&P 500
SPX,
-0.12%
thiab Dow Jones Muaj Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
+ 0.10%.
Qhov thib ob npog lub khw Nasdaq
COMP,
-0.18%.
(Cov ntawv ntsuas yog Hulbert Cov Ntawv Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij thiab Hulbert Nasdaq Cov Ntawv Xov Xwm Kev Txaus Siab.)

Qhov taw qhia capitulation yog raws li qhov feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov hnub ua lag luam nyob rau lub hlis tom qab uas txhua qhov ntawm ob qhov ntsuas no yog nyob rau hauv qab decile ntawm nws cov keeb kwm faib txij li xyoo 2000. Ntawm ntau lub lag luam loj hauv qab yav dhau los, qhov ntsuas no tau nce siab tshaj 80%. . Nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm Lub Kaum Hli qhov taw qhia tau nce mus rau 90.5%.

Tsis txhob maj mus dhia ntawm bullish bandwagon

Lwm qhov kev txhawb nqa, los ntawm qhov tsis sib xws ntawm qhov pom, yog qhov txwv tsis pub ua lag luam timers tau pom nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm DJIA qhov kev sib tw ntau dua-20% txij li nws qis ob lub hlis dhau los. Ib qho ntawm cov cim qhia tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm kev ua lag luam dais yog kev mob siab rau dhia rau ntawm qhov bullish bandwagon. Qhov kev xav thoob plaws thaum pib ntawm lub lag luam bull tshiab, nyob rau hauv qhov sib txawv, yog tawv ncauj tsis ntseeg.

Muaj ntau qhov pov thawj ntawm qhov tawv ncauj. Xav txog Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HNSI). Nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm DJIA qhov kev tawm tsam ntawm ntau dua 20%, HSNSI tau nce siab xwb. Nws tam sim no sawv ntawm 35^th feem pua ​​ntawm nws cov keeb kwm kev faib tawm, raws li koj tuaj yeem pom los ntawm daim ntawv qhia hauv qab ntawm kab ntawv no. Qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias 65% ntawm HSNSI niaj hnub nyeem ntawv nyob rau ob lub xyoo dhau los tau siab dua qhov chaw uas nws nyob niaj hnub no.

Peb ib txwm cia siab tias yuav muaj 20%-ntxiv rally ua rau ntau lub lag luam timers tig bullish. Nws yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws uas lawv tsis muaj. Txhawm rau muab cov ntsiab lus teb, xav txog kev ua lag luam timer kev xav hauv qhov chaw kub hauv lub sijhawm ntawm kub
GC00,
-0.21%
ze li $200 dhia dhau lub hli dhau los. Txawm hais tias nyob rau hauv feem pua ​​​​cov ntsiab lus kub qhov kev sib tw tsuas yog ib nrab ntawm DJIA's, Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index tau nce mus rau ib qho ntawm nws qib siab tshaj plaws hauv xyoo. Raws li koj tuaj yeem pom los ntawm daim duab hauv qab no, nws tam sim no sawv ntawm 94^th feem pua ​​​​ntawm nws qhov kev faib tawm ob xyoo caum.

Raws li kev txheeb xyuas qhov tsis sib xws, yog li ntawd, cov khoom lag luam ntau dua li kub yuav nkag mus rau hauv lub khw muag khoom tshiab.

Yuav ua li cas txog kev ua lag luam timers nyob rau hauv lwm yam arenas?

Daim ntawv qhia hauv qab no qhia txog cov xwm txheej tam sim no ntawm plaub qhov kev xav qhia kuv qhov kev ruaj khov ntawm kev ua lag luam timers 'qhov nruab nrab raug cuam tshuam. Dhau li peb tau hais los saum toj no, qhov ntsuas plaub yog Hulbert Bond Newsletter Sentiment Index, qhia txog kev lag luam timers 'qhov nruab nrab raug rau US daim ntawv cog lus lag luam.

Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv].