Tswv yim: Lub khw lag luam tau qhia rau koj nrov thiab meej: Tam sim no tsis yog lub sijhawm los tawm tsam Fed lossis sawv ntsug rau dais.

Rov qab thaum ntawd, nws yog qhov kev xav ntawm "peb kuv" dai ntawm kev ua lag luam - kev nce nqi, cov paj laum thiab kev foob (Thawj Tswj Hwm Richard Nixon tau raug foob vim raug foob rau cov xwm txheej nyob ib puag ncig Watergate scandal, txawm hais tias tsis tau tshwm sim). Tam sim no nws tsuas yog "ob kuv" - kev nce nqi thiab cov paj laum - tab sis lawv tseem nyob hauv qhov chaw, raws li Powell tau taw qhia. 

Muaj qhov muaj zog overhead resistance cheeb tsam rau S&P 500 los ntawm 4080 txog 4200, thiab tom qab ntawd ntau qhov kev tawm tsam ntawm 4300 saum toj no. Ntawm qhov downside, muaj kev txhawb nqa ntawm 3930-3940 (lub lim tiam dhau los qis), nrog kev txhawb nqa ntxiv ze 3900, thiab tom qab ntawd kev txhawb nqa loj ntawm 3760 thiab 3850 (lub Kaum Ob Hlis lows).

McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) muag teeb liab ntawm lub Ob Hlis thaum ntxov tseem nyob hauv qhov chaw, txawm hais tias peb tau dov peb txoj haujlwm. Lub hom phiaj ntawm kev lag luam no yog rau SPX los pauv ntawm -4σ "hloov Bollinger Band." Nws tau kov lub -3σ Band tab sis tsis tau mus txog nws lub hom phiaj. 

Qhov sib npaug-tsuas yog hu rau tus lej tau tseem nyob ntawm kev muag khoom, vim tias ob qho kev sib piv tau nce siab rau lub lim tiam no. Lawv tseem yuav nyob twj ywm ntawm kev muag khoom kom txog thaum lawv dov thiab pib poob - ib yam dab tsi uas tsis zoo li yuav nyob ze. Tsis tas li ntawd, tag nrho qhov piv tau nce sharply thiab.

Breadth tau sloppy, thiab vim li ntawd peb ob lub dav oscillators tau taw qhia rau qhov sib txawv. Qhov dav ntawm NYSE tau ua tsis muaj zog, tab sis lub teeb liab kawg tau tsim muaj - lub teeb liab yuav ntawm Lub Ob Hlis 23 - tseem nyob hauv qhov chaw (tsis tshua muaj). Txawm li cas los xij, "cov khoom lag luam nkaus xwb" qhov dav oscillator (uas suav nrog qhov dav dav ntawm cov khoom lag luam) tau ua rau tsis zoo nyob rau ob peb lub lis piam dhau los thiab rov qab los ntawm cov teeb liab muag, tau tso tseg qhov kev yuav khoom yav dhau los. Peb yuav tos kom txog thaum muaj qee qhov kev pom zoo ntawm no ua ntej ua haujlwm raws li qhov dav oscillators.

Tshiab 52-lub lim tiam lows ntawm NYSE edged ua ntej ntawm 52-lub lim tiam tshiab siab nag hmo (Lub Peb Hlis 8) thiab rov ua dua hnub no yuav txwv tsis pub cov teeb liab yuav tam sim no los ntawm qhov ntsuas no. Peb tau pom cov nqi qis dua tshiab ntawm qhov siab tshiab ntawm NYSE qee zaus nyob rau lub hli dhau los, tab sis tseem tsis tau dhau ob hnub sib law liag.

Yog li, cov ntsuas saum toj no yog tag nrho cov tsis muaj zog rau qee qhov, tab sis qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas tsis muaj zog. CBOE Volatility Index - VIX -
VIX,
+ 18.32%
tseem nyob hauv nws lub ntiaj teb. Qhov "spike peak" yuav teeb liab ntawm Lub Peb Hlis 1 tseem nyob hauv qhov chaw, ib yam li qhov nruab nrab-lub sij hawm sib txawv ntawm VIX yuav teeb liab, uas yog thawj zaug tsim tawm lub Kaum Ib Hlis (lub voj voog ntawm VIX daim ntawv qhia). Qhov tsuas muaj peev xwm tsis zoo ntawm daim ntawv VIX yog nws qib ze 18 - los ntawm qhov uas nws tau rov ua dua thaum lub lag luam dais no, zoo li nws tau ua rau hnub Thursday. Qhov "qis" VIX no yog qhov tsim nyog me ntsis los ntawm qhov tseeb tias qhov kev paub tsis meej ntawm SPX tam sim no nqis mus rau 15%, uas yog qhov qis tshaj plaws txij li lub lag luam dais no pib thaum Lub Ib Hlis 2022.

Kev tsim cov volatility derivatives feem ntau yog qhov zoo nyob rau hauv nws txoj kev xav rau cov khoom lag luam, thiab. Qhov ntawd yog vim hais tias cov qauv lus tau nqes mus rau pem hauv ntej thiab VIX yav tom ntej tau ua lag luam ntawm tus nqi rau VIX. Muaj ib qho teeb meem me me hauv cheeb tsam no, thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov CBOE lub sij hawm luv luv Volatility Index (VIX9D) yog kev lag luam siab dua tus nqi ntawm VIX. Txawm li cas los xij, nws qhov kev nce siab yog vim ob peb lub sijhawm nyob ze (cov ntawv ceeb toom poob haujlwm thiab CPI daim ntawv tshaj tawm txhua hli), uas tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv hauv kev ua lag luam. 

Zuag qhia tag nrho, peb tab tom tuav peb txoj haujlwm "core" bearish vim yog qhov tsis zoo ntawm SPX daim ntawv qhia thiab vim tias muag cov teeb liab los ntawm qhov sib npaug-tsuas yog hu rau qhov sib piv. Txawm li cas los xij, peb yuav ua lag luam pom tseeb cov cim nyob ib puag ncig cov haujlwm "core" yog tias lawv tau muab los ntawm lwm qhov ntsuas.

Kev pom zoo tshiab: Omnicom Group (OMC) 

Muaj cov teeb liab muag tshiab los ntawm qhov hnyav muab hu ua piv txwv hauv OMC
OMC,
-1.54%.
Cov khoom lag luam twb tau poob qis me ntsis hauv qab kev txhawb nqa, yog li peb tuaj yeem ua raws li lub teeb liab ntawm lub sijhawm no.

Yuav 3 OMC Lub Plaub Hlis (21^st) 90 hli

Ntawm tus nqi ntawm 3.00 lossis tsawg dua.

OMC: 89.36 Nws. (21^st) 90 tso: tsis ntev los no 1.95 twv, muaj ntawm 3.00

Peb yuav tuav cov khoom no ntev npaum li qhov kev hu xov tooj rau OMC tseem nyob ntawm qhov muag teeb liab. Raws li ib tus tuaj yeem pom los ntawm daim ntawv qhia kev sib tham sib tham, cov cim qhia los ntawm qib siab ntawm OMC tau ua tiav xyoo dhau los.

Cov kev ua tom qab: 

Peb tab tom siv cov txheej txheem "txheej txheem" ​​dov rau peb qhov kev sib kis SPY: nyob rau hauv ib qho kev sib tw ntsug lossis dais kis, yog tias lub hauv paus cuam tshuam qhov kev tawm tsam luv luv, ces yob tag nrho kev sib kis. Qhov ntawd yuav yog dov nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm ib tug hu bull kis, los yog yob down nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm ib tug dais muab kis. Nyob twj ywm rau tib lub sijhawm tas sijhawm, thiab khaws qhov kev ncua deb ntawm qhov kev tawm tsam tib yam tshwj tsis yog qhia lwm yam. 

Ntev 1 SPY Lub Peb Hlis (17^th) 410 hu thiab luv 1 SPY Lub Peb Hlis (17^th) 425 hu rau: Qhov kev sib kis no tau yuav raws li "Tshiab Highs vs. New Lows" yuav cov cim. Nws tau dov rau lub Ib Hlis 26^th, thaum SPY
Soj,
-1.84%
pauv ntawm 404, thiab tom qab ntawd nws tau dov rov qab thaum lub sijhawm tas sijhawm. Txhob tawm ntawm txoj haujlwm no yog tias qhov qis qis tshiab ntawm NYSE tshaj qhov siab tshiab rau ob hnub sib law liag.

Long 3 XM Mar (17^th) 15 hu: Cov khoom lag luam
XM,
-0.64%
tau pib txav siab dua, yog li yob Peb Hlis (17^th) 15 hu thiab tawm mus rau lub Plaub Hlis (21^st) 17.5 Nws.

Ntev 1 SPY Lub Peb Hlis (17^th) 394 muab thiab luv 1 SPY Lub Peb Hlis (17^th) 369 teev: Tus dais no kis tau nyob rau hauv txoj kab nrog McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) muag teeb liab, thiab tau muab dov rau lub lim tiam dhau los. Qhov kev lag luam no yuav raug tso tseg yog tias SPX yuav tsum kaw rov qab los ntawm +4σ Band. Nws lub hom phiaj yog -4σ Band.

Ntev 2 CTLT Lub Peb Hlis (17^th) 70 hu: Cov lus xaiv no tseem yog "hauv kev ua si," txawm tias cov khoom lag luam
CTLT,
+ 0.21%
tau poob rov qab me ntsis. Txuas ntxiv tuav thaum cov lus xaiv no tawm mus.

Ntev 3 MANU Lub Peb Hlis (17^th) 25 hu: Lub peev xwm coj mus rau qhov tsis txaus ntseeg, uas cov tswv tam sim no xav tias Manchester United
MANU,
-4.09%
muaj nuj nqis ntau dua li cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tuaj yeem pom tseeb. Peb mus tuav.

Ntev 2 GRMN Lub Plaub Hlis (21^st95 hli: Cov no tau yuav thaum Lub Ob Hlis 21^st, thaum GRMN
GRMN,
-1.38%
kaw hauv qab 95. Peb yuav nyob twj ywm nyob rau hauv txoj hauj lwm no ntev li ntev raws li qhov GRMN hnyav muab hu ua piv txwv tseem nyob ntawm qhov muag teeb liab.

Ntev 2 SPY Plaub Hlis Ntuj (21^st) 390 thiab luv 2 SPY Plaub Hlis Ntuj (21^st360 hli: Qhov no yog peb qhov "core" bearish txoj hauj lwm. Thaum xub thawj, peb yuav teem caij kom kaw txoj haujlwm no yog tias SPX kaw saum 4200.

Ntev 1 SPY Plaub Hlis Ntuj (6^th) 395 hu thiab luv 1 SPY Plaub Hlis Ntuj (6^th) 410 hu rau: Qhov kev hu xov tooj no tau yuav nyob rau hauv txoj kab nrog VIX "spike peak" yuav teeb liab. Nws tau lees paub thaum lub sijhawm kaw ntawm kev lag luam hnub Wednesday, Lub Peb Hlis 1. Nres tawm yog tias VIX kaw saum 23.73. Txwv tsis pub, peb yuav tuav 22 hnub ua lag luam.

Long 10 LLAP Lub Plaub Hlis (21^st) 2 hu: Txhob tso tseg yog LLAP
LAB,
-11.97%
kaw hauv qab 1.90.

Ntev 1 SGEN
SGEN,
-1.54%
Peb (21^st) 180 hu thiab luv 1 SGEN Lub Plaub Hlis (21^st) 200 hu rau: Peb yuav tuav yam tsis muaj kev tso tseg thawj zaug, thaum cov lus xaiv no coj los ua tawm.

Txhua qhov chaw nres yog kev puas siab puas ntsws nres tshwj tsis yog tau sau tseg.

Xa cov lus nug rau: [email tiv thaiv].

Lawrence G. McMillan yog tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm McMillan Analysis, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam thiab cov khoom lag luam sau npe. McMillan tuaj yeem tuav txoj haujlwm hauv kev ruaj ntseg pom zoo hauv daim ntawv tshaj tawm no, ob leeg tus kheej thiab hauv cov neeg siv nyiaj. Nws yog ib tug neeg ua lag luam uas muaj kev paub dhau los thiab tus thawj tswj nyiaj txiag thiab yog tus sau phau ntawv muag zoo tshaj plaws, Kev xaiv raws li kev nqis peev zoo.

©McMillan Analysis Corporation tau sau npe nrog SEC ua tus kws pab tswv yim peev thiab nrog CFTC ua tus kws pab tswv yim ua lag luam. Cov ntaub ntawv hauv tsab ntawv xov xwm no tau ua tib zoo sau los ntawm cov peev txheej uas ntseeg tau tias muaj kev ntseeg siab, tab sis qhov tseeb thiab ua tiav tsis tau lees paub. Cov tub ceev xwm lossis cov thawj coj ntawm McMillan Analysis Corporation, lossis cov nyiaj tswj hwm los ntawm cov neeg no tuaj yeem muaj cov haujlwm hauv kev ruaj ntseg pom zoo hauv kev tawm tswv yim.