Tswv yim: Lub lag luam Tshuag yog ntau yam-kawg nyob rau lub sij hawm luv luv. Tsis txhob cia siab tias yuav kav ntev.

Teb Chaws Asmeskas Tshuag lag luam, raws li ntsuas los ntawm S&P 500 Index
SPX,
+ 1.75%
,
tau tawm tsam lub lim tiam no tag nrho, thaum lub sijhawm dab tsi feem ntau yog lub caij bullish. Qhov ntawd yog qhov Yale Hirsch hu ua "kev sib tw Santa Claus" 60 xyoo dhau los. Nws suav nrog lub sijhawm ntawm tsib hnub ua lag luam kawg ntawm ib xyoos thiab thawj ob hnub ua lag luam ntawm xyoo tom ntej.

Feem ntau, SPX rallies me ntsis tshaj 1% thaum lub sijhawm ntawd. Nrog rau qhov tshwj tsis yog hnub Thursday qhov kev sib tham muaj zog, Santa ploj lawm hauv kev nqis tes ua, tab sis tseem muaj sijhawm. Ib qho kev mob tshwm sim ntawm qhov system no yog tias, yog tias lub khw tseeb txhawm rau sau npe nce ntxiv rau lub sijhawm xya-hnub, qhov no yog qhov ntsuas tsis zoo mus tom ntej. Los yog raws li Hirsch hais lus nrov nrov: "Yog tias Santa Claus yuav tsis hu, dais yuav tuaj rau Broad thiab Phab ntsa."

Daim ntawv SPX nws tus kheej muaj kev tawm tsam ntawm 3900-3940, tom qab kev tawg hauv qab 3900 nyob rau nruab nrab Lub Kaum Ob Hlis. Txog tam sim no, muaj kev txhawb nqa hauv cheeb tsam 3760-3800. Yog li, kev ua lag luam muaj ntau yam-txhim kho lub sijhawm luv. Tsis txhob cia siab tias yuav kav ntev heev. Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntev me ntsis, muaj kev tiv thaiv hnyav txog 4100, uas yog qhov chaw ua lag luam kev sib tw ua tsis tiav thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis. Ntawm qhov downside, yuav tsum muaj qee qhov kev txhawb nqa ntawm 3700, thiab tom qab ntawd thaum lub xyoo qis ntawm 3500. Thiab, tau kawg, daim duab loj tshaj plaws tseem yog lub lag luam dais, nrog cov kab sib tw nqes nqes (xiav kab hauv daim duab nrog. ntawm SPX).

Peb ua tsis muaj McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) teeb liab nyob rau lub sijhawm no. SPX yuav tsum tau txav mus rau sab nraud ntawm +/-4σ "hloov Bollinger Bands" txhawm rau tsim cov teeb liab zoo li no. 

Tsis ntev los no tau hnyav muab-m yuav, thiab qhov kev sib txuas hu tau txav mus tsis tu ncua siab dua vim nws. Cov piv txwv no tau muag cov teeb liab rau ob peb lub lis piam tam sim no, thiab ntev npaum li lawv tau nce siab dua, cov teeb liab muag yuav nyob twj ywm. Qhov no yog qhov tseeb ntawm txhua qhov kev sib tw hu xov tooj peb ua raws, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog ob qhov sib npaug-tsuas yog qhov sib piv (suav nrog cov kab kos) thiab tag nrho qhov sib piv. CBOE qhov sib npaug-tsuas yog hu xov tooj sib piv tau sau npe tus lej loj rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 28, tab sis muaj qee qhov cuam tshuam rau qhov ntawd, yog li tus lej ntawd yuav dhau mus. Cov txheem piv yog ze rau nws lub xyoo highs, uas txhais tau hais tias nws yog twv yuav raug hu nyob rau hauv oversold thaj chaw, thiab cov phaus ratio yog pib mus rau oversold qib ib yam nkaus. Txawm li cas los xij, "oversold tsis txhais hais tias yuav."

Kev lag luam dav tau ua tsis zoo, thiab yog li peb qhov dav oscillators tseem nyob ntawm kev muag khoom, txawm tias nyob hauv thaj chaw muag khoom. NYSE qhov dav oscillator tau sim tsim cov cim yuav khoom ntawm ob lub sijhawm tsis ntev los no, tab sis thaum kawg ua tsis tiav. Cov "cov khoom lag luam nkaus xwb" dav oscillator tsis tau tsim cov teeb liab yuav. Peb kuj saib qhov sib txawv ntawm ob lub oscillators no, thiab nws yog oversold thaj chaw ib yam nkaus - tom qab tau muaj qhov tsis ntev los no kev yuav teeb liab.

Ib cheeb tsam uas txhim kho me ntsis yog qhov tshiab 52 lub lis piam siab ntawm NYSE. Ob peb hnub dhau los, tus naj npawb tshiab siab tshaj 60. Qhov ntawd yuav tsis zoo li ntau, thiab nws tsis yog, tiag tiag - tab sis nws yog kev txhim kho. Txawm li cas los xij, rau qhov ntsuas no los tsim cov teeb liab yuav, tus naj npawb ntawm qhov siab tshiab yuav tsum tau tshaj 100 rau ob hnub sib law liag. Qhov ntawd yuav yog qhov kev txiav txim siab tam sim no.

Qhov chaw ntawm kev cia siab tshaj plaws yog qhov tsis muaj zog (VIX, tshwj xeeb). VIX
VIX,
-3.03%

tseem nyob hauv nws lub ntiaj teb. Yog lawm, nws tau nce me ntsis nyob rau ob hnub dhau los, hauv qhov zoo li yog qhov kev pom zoo rau cov nqi lag luam poob qis, tab sis tag nrho, cov kev taw qhia los ntawm VIX tseem yog bullish rau cov khoom lag luam. Muaj ib qho "spike peak" yuav teeb liab nyob rau hauv qhov chaw, thiab cov trend of VIX yuav teeb liab kuj tseem ua haujlwm. VIX yuav tsum kaw saum nws 200-hnub txav nruab nrab (tam sim no ntawm 25.50 thiab poob qis) kom tshem tawm cov trend of VIX yuav teeb liab, thiab nws yuav tsum tau kaw saum toj 25.84 (qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm nruab nrab Lub Kaum Ob Hlis) kom tshem tawm qhov "spike peak" yuav teeb liab.

cov txua ntawm volatility derivatives tseem bullish nyob rau hauv nws outlook rau stocks, thiab. Lub sij hawm cov qauv ntawm ob qho tib si VIX yav tom ntej thiab ntawm CBOE Volatility Indices txoj kab nqes nce. Ntxiv mus, VIX yav tom ntej yog tag nrho kev lag luam ntawm cov nqi noj qab haus huv rau VIX. Cov no yog cov cim zoo rau cov khoom lag luam.

Hauv cov ntsiab lus, peb txuas ntxiv tuav txoj haujlwm "core" bearish txoj haujlwm, vim tias qhov kev poob qis ntawm SPX daim ntawv qhia thiab vim tias qhov kev puas tsuaj tsis ntev los no hauv qab 3900. Kuj tseem muaj cov cim tsis zoo los ntawm qhov sib piv thiab qhov dav (txawm hais tias ob qho tib si nyob hauv thaj chaw oversold. ). Qhov kev yuav khoom tam sim no tsuas yog emanating los ntawm volatility complex. Yog li, peb yuav txuas ntxiv ua lag luam paub tseeb cov cim nyob ib puag ncig qhov "core" txoj haujlwm.

Kev pom zoo tshiab: Chevron (CVX)

Muaj ib qho tshiab muab-hu piv yuav teeb liab hauv Chevron
XWV,
+ 0.75%
,
los ntawm ib qho mob oversold. Yog li, peb tab tom yuav coj txoj haujlwm ntev ntawm no:

Buy 1 CVX Feb (17th) 180 npe 

Ntawm tus nqi ntawm 7.20 lossis tsawg dua.

CVX: 177.35 Feb (17th) 180 hu: 7.00 twv, muaj ntawm 7.20

Peb yuav tuav txoj haujlwm no ntev npaum li qhov kev hu xov tooj ntawm CVX tseem nyob ntawm qhov yuav khoom.

Tom qab Kev Ua Haujlwm: 

Txhua qhov chaw nres yog kev puas siab puas ntsws nres tshwj tsis yog tau sau tseg.

Peb tab tom siv "tus qauv" txheej txheem dov rau peb
Soj,
+ 1.78%

kis tau: nyob rau hauv ib qho ntsug nyuj los yog dais kis, yog hais tias lub hauv paus hits lub short strike, ces dov tag nrho cov kis. Qhov ntawd yuav yog yob up nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm ib tug hu bull kis, los yog yob cia nyob rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm ib tug dais muab kis. Nyob twj ywm rau tib lub sijhawm tas sijhawm, thiab khaws qhov kev ncua deb ntawm qhov kev tawm tsam tib yam tshwj tsis yog qhia lwm yam. 

Ntev 2 SPY Lub Ib Hlis (20th) 375 tso thiab luv 2 Lub Ib Hlis (20th355 hli: qhov no yog peb qhov "core" bearish txoj hauj lwm. Tsuav yog SPX tseem nyob rau hauv qhov kev poob qis, peb xav tuav txoj haujlwm ntawm no. 

Ntev 2 KMB Jan (20th) 135 hu: yog raws li qhov sib piv hu ua Kimberly-Clark
KWB,
+ 0.53%
.
Qhov piv ntawd tau tam sim no dov mus rau qhov muag teeb liab, yog li muag cov hu mus kaw txoj haujlwm. 

Long 2 IWM Jan (20th) 185 at-the-money calls and Short 2 IWM Jan (20th) 205 hu: Qhov no yog peb txoj haujlwm raws li lub caij nyoog bullish ntawm Thanksgiving thiab hnub thib ob ntawm lub xyoo tshiab. Tawm ntawm no iShares Russell 2000 ETF
IWM,
+ 2.52%

txoj hauj lwm ntawm kev kaw ntawm kev lag luam hnub Wednesday, Lub Ib Hlis 4, hnub thib ob ntawm lub xyoo tshiab.

Ntev 1 SPY Lub Ib Hlis (20th) 402 hu thiab luv 1 SPY Jan (20th) 417 hu: qhov kev sib kis no tau yuav thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis 13th, thaum qhov tseeb VIX "spike peak" yuav teeb liab raug tsim tawm. Nres koj tus kheej tawm yog VIX tom qab kaw saum 25.84. Txwv tsis pub, peb yuav tuav 22 hnub ua lag luam.

Ntev 1 SPY Lub Ib Hlis (20th) 389 muab thiab luv 1 SPY Jan (20th) 364 teev:  qhov no yog ib qho ntxiv rau peb txoj haujlwm "core" bearish, tsim thaum SPX kaw qis dua 3900 thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 15th. Cia koj tus kheej tawm ntawm qhov kis no yog tias SPX kaw lawm saum 3940.

Ntev 2 PCAR Feb (17th97.20 hli: Cov no tso rau Paccar
PCAR,
-0.66%

tau yuav lub Kaum Ob Hlis 20th, thaum lawv thaum kawg pauv ntawm peb qhov yuav txwv. Peb yuav txuas ntxiv tuav cov tso no kom ntev li ntev tau phaus muab-hu piv yog ntawm qhov muag teeb liab.

Ntev 2 SPY Lub Ib Hlis (13th) 386 hu thiab luv 2 SPY Jan (13th) 391 hu: Qhov no yog kev lag luam raws li lub caij nyoog zoo "Santa Claus rally" lub sijhawm. Tsis muaj kev txwv rau qhov kev lag luam no, tsuas yog lub sijhawm. Yog tias SPY ua lag luam ntawm 391, tom qab ntawd yob tag nrho kis mus txog 15 cov ntsiab lus ntawm txhua sab. Txawm li cas los xij, tawm ntawm koj qhov kev sib kis thaum kaw ntawm kev lag luam hnub Wednesday, Lub Ib Hlis 4 (hnub thib ob ntawm lub xyoo tshiab).

Txhua qhov chaw nres yog kev puas siab puas ntsws nres tshwj tsis yog tau sau tseg.

Lawrence G. McMillan yog tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm McMillan Analysis, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam thiab cov khoom lag luam sau npe. McMillan tuaj yeem tuav txoj haujlwm hauv kev ruaj ntseg pom zoo hauv daim ntawv tshaj tawm no, ob leeg tus kheej thiab hauv cov neeg siv nyiaj. Nws yog ib tug neeg ua lag luam uas muaj kev paub dhau los thiab tus thawj tswj hwm nyiaj txiag thiab yog tus sau phau ntawv muag khoom zoo tshaj plaws, Kev Xaiv raws li Kev nqis peev zoo. www.optionstrategist.com

Xa cov lus nug rau: [email tiv thaiv].

Disclaimer: ©McMillan Analysis Corporation tau sau npe nrog SEC ua tus kws pab tswv yim peev thiab nrog CFTC ua tus kws pab tswv yim ua lag luam. Cov ntaub ntawv hauv tsab ntawv xov xwm no tau ua tib zoo sau los ntawm cov peev txheej uas ntseeg tau tias muaj kev ntseeg siab, tab sis qhov tseeb thiab ua tiav tsis tau lees paub. Cov tub ceev xwm lossis cov thawj coj ntawm McMillan Analysis Corporation, lossis cov nyiaj tswj hwm los ntawm cov neeg no tuaj yeem muaj cov haujlwm hauv kev ruaj ntseg pom zoo hauv kev tawm tswv yim. 

Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-range-bound-over-the-short-term-dont-expect-that-to-last-long-11672345756?siteid= yhoof2&yptr=yahoo