Tswv yim: Lub khw lag luam hauv txhua qhov yuav tau nkag mus rau theem tshiab bull - yog li koj yuav xav ua tus tswv tsib cov khoom lag luam no

Kuv sib cav peb nyob rau theem pib ntawm kev ua lag luam bull tshiab, uas txhais tau tias koj yuav tsum yuav qhov tsis muaj zog tseem ceeb, zoo li qhov peb pom tam sim no. Kuv tsis tau txhais hais tias yuav tsum tau tso tseg ntawm cov skeptics. Peb xav tau lawv. Tom qab tag nrho, ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm txhua lub khw muag nyuj yog "phab ntsa ntawm kev txhawj xeeb."

Koj ib txwm xav tau ntau pawg neeg txhawj xeeb txog qhov no thiab qhov ntawd, thiab kwv yees kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam tuag, rau lub lag luam nyuj kom ciaj sia. Ntawm no yog vim li cas: Thaum txhua tus neeg bullish, tsis muaj neeg tawm mus lawm tig bullish thiab tsav cov stocks.

Tau kawg, tej zaum kuv yuav yog tus uas hloov mus ua txhaum. Tab sis ntawm no yog kuv tsib lub laj thawj vim li cas peb nyob rau theem tshiab ntawm kev ua lag luam bull, thiab tsib cov khoom lag luam uas yuav zoo dua nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawd.

Yog vim li cas #1: Kev nce nqi siab tiag tiag yog qhov hloov pauv

Kev lag luam bears qhia peb kev nce nqi yuav nyob twj ywm siab, yuam Fed kom nce nqi ntau heev uas nws ua rau muaj kev lag luam loj. Lawv yuav yuam kev. Tab sis koj tuaj yeem pom tias lawv yuav ua qhov yuam kev no li cas.

Ua ntej, qhov tsis txaus ntseeg tseem ceeb hauv kev kwv yees yog tus cwj pwm ntawm kev xav tias cov xwm txheej tam sim no yuav nyob mus li. Qhov thib ob, nws yuav siv sij hawm ib ntus rau kev poob qis hauv kev nce nqi nce siab los ua haujlwm lawv txoj hauv kev mus rau tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv thiab cov ntaub ntawv nce nqi xws li tus nqi siv khoom lag luam (CPI). Ua ntej peb yuav siv sijhawm ntev npaum li cas, xav txog txhua qhov xov xwm zoo tiag tiag ntawm kev nce nqi nce nqi uas tsuas yog tsis quav ntsej, vim tias nws tseem tsis tau cuam tshuam txog kev nce nqi nce ntxiv.

* Lub S&P Goldman Sachs Cov Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Khoom Muag Tsis ntev los no tau poob qis 18% -20% txij lub Tsib Hlis thiab Lub Rau Hli.

* Tus nqi thauj khoom poob qis los ntawm ib feem peb ntawm qhov siab tsis ntev los no.

* Cov tuam txhab them nqi them thiab tau txais kev pom meej meej thaum ntxov xyoo no, raws li kev tshawb fawb kev lag luam tshiab los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve koog tsev txhab nyiaj hauv New York, Philadelphia thiab Richmond. Lawv kuj tau qhia lub sijhawm xa khoom thiab cov ntawv xaj tsis tau ua tiav daim ntawv cog lus nrawm. Qhov no qhia peb tias cov teeb meem kev lag luam-chain - qhov loj ntawm kev nce nqi - yog qhov yooj yim.

* Kev tsim tsheb tshiab nyob rau lub Xya Hli tau rov qab mus rau theem lig-2020, uas yuav ua rau muaj kev poob qis dua rau cov nqi tsheb siv, twb tau poob qis - nqis 3.6% hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm Lub Yim Hli.

Kuv tuaj yeem mus ntxiv. Tab sis lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb yog me ntsis ntawm qhov no tau tshwm sim nyob rau hauv cov xov xwm inflation indices. Yog li, bears tseem unconvinced thiab bearish.

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kev nce nqi loj tom ntej yuav yog Lub Yim Hli CPI, yuav tsum tau tshaj tawm Lub Cuaj Hli 13. Nws yuav qhia txog qhov cuam tshuam tsawg ntawm kev poob qis ntawm cov nyiaj nce siab. Ib txoj kev tshawb fawb tsis ntev los no los ntawm Goldman Sachs hais tias cov nqi nce siab yuav siv li ob mus rau rau lub hlis twg los cuam tshuam cov nqi ntsuas. Peb tseem tsis tau muaj. Tab sis peb yuav tau txais tus lej nyiaj qis dua uas ua rau cov bears ua siab ntev, ntxias lawv kom tig tau ntau dua thiab yuav peb cov khoom lag luam.   

Yog vim li cas #2: Kev ntseeg siab ntawm cov neeg siv khoom yuav rov zoo

Peb txhua tus paub cov neeg siv khoom tsav feem ntau ntawm peb qhov kev loj hlob GDP - ob feem peb lossis ntau dua. Tam sim no, kev xav ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tsawg heev - tsis ntev los no tom qab WWII qis. Qhov no zoo li khib vim tias kev ua lag luam ua haujlwm muaj zog heev. Tab sis cov neeg siv khoom saib cov nqi ze, thiab thaum lawv pom lawv nce ntau, lawv tig tsis zoo.

Ib yam li ntawd, raws li kev nce nqi yooj yim, cov neeg siv khoom xav yuav tuaj. Qhov no yuav ua rau cov neeg siv khoom xav tau zoo dua, tso siab rau tsiaj ntsuj plig thiab kev siv nyiaj.

Cov Tshuag yuav teb. Txawm hais tias tag nrho cov kev saib xyuas rau Fed nruj, cov neeg siv kev ntseeg siab muaj kev cuam tshuam loj dua rau kev lag luam Tshuag. Muaj kev sib raug zoo ntawm kev ntseeg siab thiab kev lag luam nce qib. Qhov no yog qhov taw qhia saib. Cov neeg siv khoom kuj muaj chaw qiv, txawm tias qhov nyiaj qiv nyiaj nce ntxiv. Cov nqi qiv nyiaj thiab kev siv nyiaj hauv tsev tseem zoo qis dua qhov nruab nrab ntawm keeb kwm.

Yog vim li cas #3: Kev lag luam poob qis yuav tsis zoo li

Kuv mam li tawm tsam qhov kev sib cav txog kev nom kev tswv thiab dag txog "dab tsi yog kev lag luam poob qis" txij li qhov kev txhais tau meej rau ntau xyoo. Lub National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) txiav txim siab, thiab nws txiav txim siab ntau yam tshaj li GDP, suav nrog kev ua haujlwm muaj zog.

NBER tsis zoo li yuav txiav txim siab tias muaj kev poob qis rau qhov laj thawj yooj yim: Kev ua haujlwm muaj zog heev. Kev ua haujlwm them nyiaj tau nce txhua lub hlis nyob rau thawj xya lub hlis xyoo 2022 los ntawm 3.3 lab txoj haujlwm rau cov ntaub ntawv 152.5 lab hauv Lub Xya Hli. Peb ib txwm tsis muaj kev poob nyiaj txiag thaum lub lag luam ua haujlwm muaj zog heev. Kev muag khoom muag tau nce los ntawm 2.4% ntawm peb lub hlis ib xyoos ib zaug nyob rau lub Xya Hli - lwm qhov cim ntawm tsis muaj kev lag luam.

Tau kawg, kev ua haujlwm muaj zog yog rab ntaj ob sab. Thaum cov nyiaj poob haujlwm qis qis - nyob ib ncig ntawm 3.5% - kev lag luam tuaj yeem ua raws. Kev lag luam kev ua lag luam nruj heev, cov tuam txhab tsis tuaj yeem nrhiav cov neeg ua haujlwm ntxiv kom loj hlob. Lub sijhawm no, txawm li cas los xij, kev koom tes ntawm kev ua haujlwm tseem raug txwv. Ntau tus neeg rov qab mus ua haujlwm yuav yuav peb lub sijhawm hauv qhov kev nthuav dav no.

Txawm hais tias nws tsis yog, daim duab loj, peb pom qhov tsis muaj qhov ntau dhau uas ib txwm ua rau muaj kev lag luam tsis zoo - zoo li lub xyoo 1990s tech npuas lossis xyoo 2005-2007 vaj tsev qiv nyiaj npuas. Yog li txawm tias peb tau txais kev lag luam poob qis, nws yuav mob me. Raws li rau ob qhov sib law liag GDP poob qis uas cov nom tswv tab tom mus txog - pawg neeg txiav txim tseem tawm ntawm qhov ntawd. Cov ntaub ntawv no tuaj yeem hloov kho nce siab. Nws twb tshwm sim lawm.

Yog vim li cas #4: Covid tab tom khiav

Covid tau wily, yog li tsis muaj leej twg paub yog tias nws rov qab tiag tiag. Tab sis txog tam sim no, tsawg kawg, tsis muaj Covid hloov pauv tshiab nyob rau hauv tis los coj los ntawm BA.5. Yog li ntau tus neeg tau tsim kev tiv thaiv ntuj vim tias lawv tau txais Covid, txhua qhov kev hloov pauv tshiab yuav muaj lub sijhawm nyuaj rau kev sib tw.

Peb yuav kawm ntxiv thaum huab cua txias tuaj rau lub Kaum Hli thiab Kaum Ib Hlis. Tab sis yog tias qhov hmoov zoo no tuav, nws yuav ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov rau kev lag luam. Nws txhais tau tias ntau tus neeg yuav mus ncig, nqa tsev so thiab kev siv nyiaj hauv tsev noj mov.

Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws rau kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, kev zam txim txhais tau tias Tuam Tshoj yuav txiav txim siab ntau dua qhov kev kaw cia, tsim kom rov qhib kev rov qab los nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo thib ob. Qhov no yuav txhawb kev loj hlob thoob ntiaj teb. Yog lawm, Lub Xya Hli cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam tsis muaj zog. Tab sis tib neeg lub txhab nyiaj ntawm Tuam Tshoj tsis ntev los no tau txiav cov nqi tseem ceeb uas tau npaj txhij txog, los ntawm tus lej token. Qhov kev thim rov qab qhia peb tias nws qhib rau kev txiav nqi ntau dua. Lub caij no, Tuam Tshoj Thawj Tswj Hwm Li Keqiang tsis ntev los no tau hais kom cov xeev los txhawb kev siv nyiaj txiag.

Yog vim li cas #5: Kev xav tau tsoo hauv qab

Cov neeg ua lag luam kev xav tau poob qis heev nyob rau nruab nrab Lub Rau Hli - hom qis uas tshwm sim nyob ib puag ncig kev txiav txim siab hauv qab. Kev xav yog qhov nyuaj rau taug qab - ib feem vim tias koj kuj yuav tsum tau saib xyuas koj tus kheej. Tab sis ib qho kev ntsuas kuv siv los ua ib qho yooj yim shortcut yog Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio.

Nws poob rau 0.6 nyob ze ntawm lub Rau Hli kev lag luam qis. Qhov ntawd yog qhov kev txiav txim siab, qhia cov tub ua lag luam pov rau hauv daim phuam thiab tso tseg - txoj kev lawv feem ntau ua hauv khw hauv qab. Kev nyeem ntawv Lub Rau Hli yog qhov qis tshaj txij li lub Peb Hlis 2009, kev ua lag luam qis hauv kev lag luam dais kawg. Tus bull bear ratio ntaus 0.56 lub lim tiam ntawm Lub Peb Hlis 10, 2009, thiab cov khw lag luam hauv qab lub lim tiam ntawd, thaum Lub Peb Hlis 11.

Cov xov xwm zoo ntawm no yog tias tus nyuj / dais piv tseem qis, ntawm 1.52. Txhua yam hauv qab 2 qhia kuv lub khw muag khoom tau zoo heev, los ntawm qhov kuv siv qhov ntsuas no.

Ntawm kab hauv qab

Xav txog txhua qhov kev ntshai tsis tu ncua txog kev nce nqi, Fed thiab kev lag luam poob qis, nws tsis muaj qhov xav tsis thoob tias cov tub ua lag luam tseem xav tsis thoob. Tsis yog koom nrog pawg neeg poob qis thaum cov khoom lag luam poob qis, xav txog qhov no yog qhov kev yuav khoom "phab ntsa ntawm kev txhawj xeeb" uas txhua lub khw muag nyuj yuav tsum nce.

Nyob rau hauv ib puag ncig no, nws ua rau kev txiav txim siab yuav cov khoom lag luam - pib nrog cov npe uas muaj kev tiv thaiv moats tab sis saib pheej yig vim tias lawv muaj plaub- lossis tsib lub hnub qub ntsuas (tawm ntawm tsib) ntawm Morningstar Direct.

FAANGs ntawm cov tsiaj ntawv raug ntaus-down
GOOGL,
+ 2.60%,
Amazon.com
AMZN,
+ 2.60%
thiab Meta
META,
+ 3.38%
txhua yam haum rau daim nqi, ib yam li JP Morgan
JPM,
+ 2.37%
thiab Nike
TSWV,
+ 1.62%.
Xav paub ntau ntxiv txog txoj hauv kev no rau kev xaiv cov khoom lag luam, saib kem no ntawm kuv li.

Nyob rau lub sijhawm ze, peb yuav pom qhov tsis muaj zog hauv lub Cuaj Hli. Nws yog keeb kwm lub hli lousiest rau cov khoom lag luam. Nws tseem yog lub hli Fed nce nws qhov kev nruj nruj. Yog li, raws li ib txwm muaj, nws yog qhov zoo tshaj los npaj cov khoom lag luam hauv cov theem.

Michael Brush yog tus sau xov xwm rau MarketWatch. Thaum lub sijhawm tshaj tawm, nws muaj GOOGL, AMZN, META thiab NKE. Txhuam tau qhia GOOGL, AMZN, META, JPM thiab NKE hauv nws tsab ntawv xov xwm, Txhuam Txog ntawm Cov Khoom Loj. Ua raws nws ntawm Twitter @mbrushstocks.