Tswv yim: Koj puas yuav tsum ntxiv cov vaj tsev nyob rau hauv koj cov nyiaj laus cov ntaub ntawv?

Tsis muaj cov peev nyiaj zoo li no, qhov kev sib tw ntsib cov neeg uas xav faib qee yam ntawm lawv cov nyiaj laus cov nyiaj laus rau cov vaj tsev nyob yog nrhiav cov tsev uas ua tau yam tsawg kawg nkaus nrog rau cov khoom vaj khoom tsev nws tus kheej.

Qhov ntawd yog qhov yooj yim hais dua li ua tiav, hmoov tsis. Xav txog kev sim twv, 10 xyoo dhau los, lub nroog loj hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas yuav ntsib tus nqi tsev loj tshaj plaws nyob rau xyoo tom ntej. Ntau lub caij tau txais nws txoj cai: Lub nroog uas muaj tus nqi siab tshaj plaws tau ntsib kev nce ib xyoos ib zaug hauv nws qhov Case-Shiller Tsev Nqe Index uas yog ze li peb npaug ntawm lub nroog nrog tus nqi qis tshaj.

Cov nroog ntawd, raws li koj tuaj yeem pom los ntawm daim ntawv qhia nrog, yog Phoenix thiab New York City, nrog rau txhua xyoo nce kaum xyoo ntawm 11.4% thiab 4.3%, feem.

Tsis paub tias yuav nyob qhov twg hauv cov nyiaj laus? Mus saib MarketWatch's Qhov chaw zoo tshaj plaws rau kuv so haujlwm nyob qhov twg? cuab tam

Yuav ua li cas yog REZ?

Ib tus nyeem ntawv pab tau xa email rau kuv los qhia txog kev daws teeb meem rau kev sib tw ntawm cov khoom vaj khoom tsev qhov nruab nrab rov qab los: The iShares Residential & Multisector Real Estate ETF
REZ,
-1.19%.
Txawm li cas los xij, kuv tsis ntseeg.

Txawm li cas los xij lwm yam kev tsim txiaj no ETF muaj, nws yog qhov nthuav kom thov nws yog tus neeg sawv cev ntawm cov khoom vaj khoom tsev hauv vaj tse tag nrho. Nws qhov loj tshaj plaws tam sim no tuav, sawv cev ntau dua 10% ntawm nws cov ntaub ntawv, yog Public Storage
PSA,
-1.22%,
uas yog tus tswv thiab ua haujlwm rau cov chaw khaws khoom tus kheej. Nws qhov thib ob loj tshaj plaws tuav, sawv cev ntxiv xya feem pua ​​ntawm nws cov ntaub ntawv, yog Welltower
ZOO,
-2.82%,
uas nqis peev hauv kev kho mob infrastructure.

Xav txog qhov kev sib raug zoo nyob rau kaum xyoo dhau los hauv cov nyiaj rov qab txhua hli ntawm REZ thiab Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index. Kuv xam tias r-squared ntawm qhov kev sib raug zoo no tsuas yog 0.6%, uas txhais tau hais tias kev hloov pauv txhua hli hauv Case-Shiller Performance index piav qhia tsawg dua 1% ntawm cov kev hloov pauv txhua hli ntawm REZ.

Yog vim li cas tseem ceeb tseem sim

Cov ntaub ntawv no yeej qhia tau tias tsis muaj txoj hauv kev yooj yim los nqis peev hauv vaj tse vaj tsev ua khoom vaj khoom tsev. Tab sis qhov ntawd tsis tau txhais hais tias peb yuav tsum tso tseg. Cov cuab yeej cuab tam chav kawm muaj ntau yam kev tsim txiaj uas tsim nyog txaus los qhia tias peb yuav tsum tsis txhob cia qhov tsis muaj qhov kev daws teeb meem yooj yim ua rau peb zam nws tag nrho.

Raw rov qab tsuas yog ib qho ntawm cov kev tsim txiaj. Ib yam li qhov tseem ceeb yog qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khw muag khoom thiab cov vaj tsev nyob. Kuj tseem ceeb yog nws cov volatility tsawg.

Cov kev tsim txiaj ntxiv no tau piav qhia los ntawm daim duab nrog, uas npaj cov vaj tse nyob hauv vaj tse tag nrho rov qab los txij li xyoo 1890 nrog rau S&P 500's. Daim ntawv ceeb toom hais tias cov vaj tse vaj tsev nyob qhov kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov kab ua tau zoo dua li S&P 500's. Kuj ceeb toom yuav ua li cas, nrog rau qhov kev zam ntawm Great Financial Crisis, cov vaj tse nyob hauv vaj tse zoo li tuav nws tus kheej thaum lub lag luam muaj vaj huam sib luag.

Kuv qhov kev xav yog tias cov kev tsim txiaj ntxiv no feem ntau tseem nyob txawm tias qee qhov kev nqis peev hauv vaj tsev nyob ua rau cov khoom nyoos rov qab uas qis dua cov khoom vaj khoom tsev tag nrho. Yog tias muaj, qhov kev nqis peev ntawd tseem tuaj yeem ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev ua kom ntseeg tau tias koj cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj laus ua haujlwm ntev li koj ua.

Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv].