Tswv yim: Kev ua tau zoo thiab cov nyiaj faib siab tau teeb tsa tsib cov khoom lag luam semiconductor sib nrug los ntawm cov neeg sib tw

Kev muag khoom txhais tau hais tias kev sib tham hauv cov npe zoo muaj ntau - uas yog, rau txhua tus neeg uas ua siab ntev txaus los xav txog lub sijhawm ntev.

David Jeffress, tus thawj coj ntawm pawg thawj coj saib xyuas kev lag luam hais tias "Nyob rau tom qab, lub sijhawm zoo li no zoo li yuav muaj lub sijhawm yuav khoom zoo kawg," Laffer Tengler Kev nqis peev.

Ua ntej peb tau mus rau tsib cov khoom lag luam nyiam ntawm Jeffress thiab ob tus kws tshaj lij chip-sector, ntawm no yog peb lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum nco ntsoov thaum mus yos hav zoov rau kev sib tham hauv qhov chaw.

Nyeem: Semiconductor cov khoom lag luam tau nce siab los ntawm 2022 qis - thiab cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xav tias yuav muaj kev txhawb siab loj rau xyoo tom ntej

1. Qhov zoo pov nrog qhov phem

Cov xov xwm zoo tshaj plaws rau cov tub ua lag luam tshiab yog cov npe zoo tau muab pov tseg nrog qhov tsis zoo nyob rau hauv qhov teeb meem tam sim no. "Lub npe semiconductor tau pleev xim nrog txhuam dav dav. Tab sis cov tuam txhab tsis yog txhua tus tsim muaj vaj huam sib luag, "hais tias Jeffress. "Peb tsom mus rau qhov zoo dua, yog li kev muag khoom zoo li cov no yog cov sijhawm yuav khoom zoo heev."

Nyob rau hauv sib piv, ceev faj ntawm super-siab-loj hlob, speculative npe nrog siab cov neeg siv khoom concentration.

2. Koj tsis tuaj yeem sijhawm lub voj voog

Tsis nco qab sim hu cov lows.

Todd Lowenstein, tus kws tshaj lij kev ncaj ncees ntawm Lub Tuam Txhab Nyiaj Txiag ntawm Union Bank hais tias "Nws tsis tuaj yeem cuam tshuam tsis zoo thaum lub voj voog hauv qab. "Qhov nruab nrab ntawm lub sijhawm poob qis yog txoj hauv kev mus."

Tab sis muaj ob peb lub laj thawj xav tias chip stocks yuav tsis mus ntau hauv qab lawv qhov nruab nrab Lub Kaum Hli. Kev sib koom ua ke tsis tu ncua hauv cov sector tau nce rov qab los ntawm peev. Thiab qhov cuam tshuam txog kev txhim kho kev sib txawv thiab cov nqi txiav tawm qhia cov tuam txhab chip tsawg dua qhov uas lawv tau siv los ua.

Tsis tas li ntawd, ib qho kev lag luam poob qis yuav tsis yog txhua yam phem. Lowenstein xav tias peb tab tom dhau los ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam uas yuav tshem tawm ntau lub sijhawm sib txawv. Qhov no qhia tias kev lag luam poob qis yuav luv thiab ntiav.

3. Chips tau dhau los ua txhua yam

Semiconductors tau nkag mus rau ntau yam ntawm lub neej, kev thov rau lawv yuav rov qab sai dua lossis tom qab, thiab txhawb nqa cov khoom ntawm cov khoom lag luam chips koj yuav tam sim no.

"Txhua tus neeg txhawj xeeb txog qhov yuav tshwm sim yog tias peb mus rau hauv kev lag luam poob qis thiab qhov ntawd txhais li cas rau cov khoom lag luam chip. Tab sis qhov lawv ploj lawm yog qhov kev xav tau ntawm cov chips nthuav dav, "hais tias Jeffress.

Cov duab loj-daim duab xav tau zoo li huab xam, kev txawj ntse, tsheb fais fab, neeg hlau, 5G thiab Internet ntawm Yam tsis ploj mus.

"Chips yog ubiquity. Lawv yog cov caj qaum ntawm kev lag luam niaj hnub no, "hais tias Lowenstein.

Ntawm no yog tsib nti cov khoom lag luam uas zoo li ntxim nyiam tam sim no vim tias lawv yog cov npe zoo ua lag luam ntawm cov luv nqi. Lawv nyob rau hauv alphabetical order.

Nco ntsoov tias lawv txhua tus them cov nyiaj faib tawm, uas suav rau ib feem loj ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam thiab kev lag luam rov qab los, dhau sijhawm. Koj tau them nyiaj tos, raws li cov lus hais mus. Qhov tseeb, plaub ntawm lub tuam txhab tau them nyiaj ntau dua li S&P 500's 1.8% cov nyiaj faib tawm.

1. Analog Devices. Cov nyiaj tau los: 2.1%

Analog Li
ADI,
+ 1.42%
tshwj xeeb hauv analog teeb liab ua chips thiab semiconductors siv hauv kev tswj fais fab. Qhov ntawd ua rau nws ua si ntawm txhua yam ntawm tsheb thiab chaw nres tsheb wireless, mus rau 5G, lub Hoobkas robots thiab khoom siv kho mob.

Lowenstein hais tias "Nws cov chips tau tsim los rau hauv lub voj voog ntev hauv kev pib thiab kev lag luam," hais tias Lowenstein. Qhov ntawd muab kev ruaj ntseg thiab pom kev ntawm cov nyiaj tau los. Yog li nws cov neeg siv khoom sib txawv heev.

Cov kev zoo no txawv nws ntawm cov tuam txhab chip uas yog kev ua si ntawm ib lossis ob lub voj voog khoom loj thiab kev lag luam uas tuaj yeem tawm mus sai. Qhov no ntxiv rau tus nqi-rau-nyiaj tau los (P / E) piv ntawm 14.8 vs ib nrab xyoo tsib xyoos ntawm 20.7 ntxiv "zoo ntawm tus nqi tsim nyog" rau Lowenstein.

Analog Devices muaj qhov dav dav vim nws cov qauv tsim chips, thiab vim tias ib zaug nws cov chips tau tsim los rau hauv cov khoom nws raug nqi rau cov neeg siv khoom hloov mus rau lwm tus neeg muag khoom, hais tias Brian Colello, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Tshuag ntawm Morningstar, uas ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau rau. qhov tseem ceeb ntawm moats hauv kev nqis peev. Qhov no muab visibility rau cov nyiaj tau los tiam sis thiab tus nqi zog.

Tshaj tawm cov nyiaj tau los Kaum Ib Hlis 22.

2. ASML tuav. Cov nyiaj tau los sib faib: 1.4%

Chip txiag siv photolithography rau etch qauv mus rau semiconductors nyob rau hauv txoj kev uas nce tus naj npawb ntawm transistors lawv muaj peev xwm craam rau tib tus nqi ntawm silicon.

Qhov kub tshaj iteration ntawm qhov no yog hu ua huab ultraviolet (EUV) lithography. ASML
ASML,
+ 4.18%
yog tus xa khoom tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv photolithography uas ua EUV lithography. Cov cuab yeej no tseem ceeb heev, ASML cov neeg siv khoom sab saum toj - Intel
INTC,
+ 0.25%,
Samsung Electronics thiab Taiwan Semiconductor
TSM,
+ 3.60%
- tau txais kev ncaj ncees nyob rau hauv ASML los pab nyiaj EUV kev tshawb fawb kev loj hlob.

ASML ua lag luam nyob rau pem hauv ntej P / E ntawm 23.8 uas tsis pheej yig piv rau S&P 500 P / E ntawm 16.5.

"ASML yog qhov ncaj ncees thiab tsim nyog muaj nuj nqis. Tab sis yog tias koj yuav them nyiaj rau kev lag luam, ASML yog tus them nyiaj rau, "hais tias John Rotonti, uas npog cov chip sector rau Motley Fool. "Lawv tau qhia txog 11% cov nyiaj tau los txhua xyoo kev loj hlob nyob rau kaum xyoo tom ntej. Qhov ntawd yog qhov kev lag luam pricing nyob rau hauv. "

Hais tias, ASML yeej zoo li pheej yig txheeb ze rau nws tus kheej keeb kwm. Tam sim no rau pem hauv ntej P / E ntawm 23.8 yog qhov zoo-hauv qab qhov nruab nrab ntawm tsib xyoos ntawm 33.9. ASML muaj kev lag luam dav dav raws li nws txoj kev paub txog tus kheej uas nyob deb ua ntej ntawm cov neeg sib tw muaj. Nyob rau lub sijhawm thaum cov tuam txhab thev naus laus zis tau tshaj tawm cov kev muag khoom tsis muaj zog, ASML tau nce nws qhov kev muag khoom loj hlob ntawm 2022 mus rau 13% los ntawm 10% thaum nws tshaj tawm cov nyiaj tau los Lub Kaum Hli 19.

Tshaj tawm cov nyiaj tau los Lub Ib Hlis 25.

3. Broadcom. Cov nyiaj tau los: 3.5%

Broadcom
AWG,
+ 1.45%
muag xov tooj cua zaus lim siv hauv smartphones los tswj ntau yam ntaub ntawv ntws thiab lim tawm kev cuam tshuam. Kua
AAPL,
+ 0.42%
yog nws cov neeg siv khoom loj.

Qhov no ua rau nws ua si ntawm 5G. Nws tseem muag cov chips siv hauv kev sib txuas sib txuas, broadband, kev lag luam cia, thiab kev sib txuas wireless. Broadcom cov khoom sib txawv yog los ntawm kev sib koom ua ke ntau xyoo thiab ib qho ntxiv tseem tab tom tos - qhov tau los ntawm VMware
VWM,
+ 0.56%.
Qhov no yuav nthuav dav lawv cov khoom muab khoom dua ib zaug ntxiv. Broadcom muaj cov ntaub ntawv zoo rau kev yuav cov thawj coj hauv kev lag luam thiab muag tawm lawv cov lag luam uas tsis yog-core.

Tag nrho cov no pab piav qhia vim li cas Broadcom yog ib qho ntawm Jeffress '12 lub tswv yim zoo tshaj plaws, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyiam cov khoom lag luam uas yog ib feem ntawm Laffer Tengler Investments concentrated Equity Strategy. Nws kuj nyiam qhov kev txiav txim loj loj.

Jeffress hais tias "Nws yog qhov tseeb tiag, thiab tsis yog qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev txiav txim siab ob zaug uas tuaj yeem tsim kev muag khoom loj hlob hauv hnab ris," Jeffress hais. Qhov ntawd yog vim Broadcom nug cov neeg siv khoom los ua pov thawj tias lawv xav tau cov khoom muag lawv xaj.

Jeffress hais tias "Kev loj hlob rov qab thiab lawv qhov dav ntawm chip muab qhia tias Broadcom yuav ua rau muaj kev lag luam poob qis," Jeffress hais. "Qhov kev thov rau lawv cov khoom yog insatiable. Lawv pom kev thov txuas ntxiv mus nrawm dua li cov ntaub ntawv chaw tsim kho txuas ntxiv. "

Jeffress sib cav tias Broadcom pheej yig, hais txog nws cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm keeb kwm. Dividend yields nce thaum cov nqi Tshuag poob. Thaum cov khoom lag luam poob txaus xws li cov nyiaj faib tawm tau nce mus rau qib siab, qhov no yog qhov cim zoo ntawm tus nqi.

Tshaj tawm cov nyiaj tau los Kaum Ob Hlis 7.

4. Taiwan Semiconductor Chaw Tsim Khoom. Cov nyiaj tau los sib faib: 3%

Taiwan semiconductor
TSM,
+ 3.60%
yog lub ntiaj teb chip tsum. Nws cov nroj tsuag muab cov chips siv hauv txhua yam khoom siv. Qhov no ua rau nws ua si ntawm txhua yam ntawm smartphones thiab kev txawj ntse, mus rau Is Taws Nem ntawm Yam thiab huab.

Taiwan Semiconductor kuj tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm ob txoj haujlwm sib txawv. Ib qho yog tias cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam yuav tsis muaj txiaj ntsig tawm mus rau lwm tus. Tom ntej no, cov neeg siv khoom xav tau cov chips nyuaj ntxiv. Taiwan Semiconductor muaj cov thev naus laus zis uas tau ua tiav txoj haujlwm. Nws txoj kev paub thiab qhov loj me muab nws qhov dav dav.

Taiwan Semiconductor zoo li pheej yig ua lag luam nyob rau pem hauv ntej P / E ntawm 12.8 piv rau qhov nruab nrab ntawm 21.4 nyob rau hauv tsib lub xyoos dhau los thiab 16.5 rau S&P 500.

Motley Fool's Rotonti hais tias "Qhov kev ntsuas ntawd tsis muaj txiaj ntsig rau kuv. "Taiwan Semiconductor yog lub tuam txhab muaj txiaj ntsig zoo tshaj plaws semiconductor uas kuv nyiam niaj hnub no. Nws yog qhov tsis muaj nqis heev. "

Nws ua haujlwm cov nyiaj khwv tau los thiab cov nyiaj pub dawb yuav loj hlob ntawm ib nrab ntawm cov tub ntxhais hluas feem pua ​​​​hauv tsib xyoos tom ntej.

Tus nqi qis yog qhov txawv tshwj xeeb vim nws zoo li tus nqi hauv kev poob qis rau kev lag luam.

"Kev thov rau Taiwan Semiconductor's fabs yog qhov muaj zog heev thiab nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev. Kuv tsis xav tias Taiwan Semiconductor txoj kev lag luam yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam mus tom ntej, "Rotonti hais.

Tshaj tawm cov nyiaj tau los Lub Ib Hlis 11.

5. Texas Instruments. Cov nyiaj tau los sib faib: 3.1%

Zoo li Analog Devices, Texas Instruments
TXN,
+ 1.46%
yog nyob rau hauv analog chips. Nws qhov kawg kev lag luam loj tshaj plaws yog kev lag luam sector, thiab nws pib sector tshwj xeeb. Cov tuam txhab uas muaj kev cuam tshuam rau cov cheeb tsam kev lag luam ntawm kev lag luam raug cuam tshuam thaum kev lag luam kev lag luam muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntau. Qhov no piav qhia vim li cas Texas Instruments 'cov khoom lag luam pheej yig. Nws ua lag luam nrog cov nyiaj tau los ntawm keeb kwm siab, sau tseg Jeffress.

Texas Instruments muaj teeb meem nyob ze. Thaum nws tshaj tawm 13% kev muag khoom nce xyoo rau lub quarter thib peb, nws muab cov lus qhia tsis zoo rau lub quarter thib plaub. Qhov no yog vim hais tias kev lag luam sector xav tau tsis muaj zog xav tsis thoob.

Tab sis qhov kev taw qhia ze rau lub sijhawm no tsis yog qhov loj vim tias Texas Instruments yog lub npe chip-sector zoo, hais tias Jeffress. Peb paub qhov no ib feem vim tias cov khoom lag luam tau ua tau zoo xyoo no, nws hais. Nws poob 14.5% vs. 19.6% rau S&P 500 thiab 40% rau iShares Semiconductor ETF.

Tom ntej no, Texas Instruments muaj qhov kev txiav txim loj loj.

Jeffress hais tias "Peb ntseeg tias kev lag luam muaj zog dua li lwm tus tub ua lag luam tau muab credit rau lawv," Jeffress hais.

Thiab nws tab tom xa nyiaj rov qab rau cov tswv lag luam los ntawm kev yuav rov qab thiab nws cov nyiaj faib, uas nws nyuam qhuav hked.

"Kev tswj hwm tsuas yog nce cov nyiaj faib thaum lawv muaj kev ntseeg siab heev lawv tuaj yeem ua huab cua ib puag ncig kev lag luam," nws hais.

Texas Instruments kuj muaj qhov zoo ntawm kev lag luam vim nws cov khoom siv analog chips, thiab qhov tseeb tias nws raug nqi ntau rau cov neeg siv khoom hloov pauv thaum lawv tau tsim cov chips rau hauv lawv cov khoom.

Tshaj tawm cov nyiaj tau los Lub Ib Hlis 23.

Michael Brush yog tus sau xov xwm rau MarketWatch. Thaum lub sijhawm tshaj tawm, nws muaj SOXX thiab ADI. Txhuam tau tawm tswv yim ADI, INTC thiab TXN hauv nws tsab ntawv xov xwm, Txhuam Txog ntawm Cov Khoom Loj. Ua raws nws ntawm Twitter @mbrushstocks.