Cov bulls tab tom tuav ntawm straws thaum lawv ua kev zoo siab rau qhov tsis ntev los no ntawm kev muag khoom luv luv.
Lawv yuam kev ntseeg tias cov paj laum luv - feem pua ntawm lub tuam txhab cov khoom lag luam uas muag luv luv - yog qhov qhia tsis sib xws. Yog hais tias yog li ntawd, nws yuav yog bullish thaum luv luv paj piv yog siab, raws li nws yog tam sim no. Qhov tseeb, cov muag luv luv, uas tau nyiaj thaum lub tuam txhab cov khoom lag luam poob, feem ntau yog qhov tsis raug.
Yog li tsis ntev los no spike upward nyob rau hauv luv luv paj yog ib qho kev txhawj xeeb. Qhov ntawd yog raws li kev tshawb fawb los ntawm Matthew Ringgenberg, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm University of Utah thiab yog ib qho ntawm cov kws tshaj lij kev tshaj lij ntawm kev txhais cov neeg muag khoom luv luv.
Nyob rau hauv nws seminal kawm txog qhov no, nws tau tshaj tawm tias, thaum txhais tau zoo, qhov luv-muag piv "yog qhov sib cav uas paub zoo tshaj plaws ntawm cov khoom lag luam rov qab" tom qab 12 lub hlis tom ntej, ua tau zoo dua ib qho ntawm cov cim nrov siv los kwv yees rov qab - xws li tus nqi- cov nyiaj tau los lossis tus nqi-rau-phau ntawv piv.
Kuv hais txog "kev txhais lus kom raug" yog hais txog Ringgenberg qhov kev tshawb pom tias cov ntaub ntawv luv luv muag tau dhau los ua qhov kev kwv yees zoo dua los ntawm kev nthuav tawm qhov twg qhov muag luv luv piv rau nws cov qauv hauv qab. Qhov sib piv nyoos piv txwv li tus naj npawb ntawm cov khoom muag luv luv raws li feem pua ntawm tag nrho cov shares tseem tshuav. Ringgenberg's detrended version ntawm qhov luv luv-muag piv yog npaj rau hauv daim ntawv nrog, hauv qab no.
Daim ntawv ceeb toom los ntawm daim ntawv qhia tias, tab sis rau ib lub hlis nce siab hauv 2013, qhov kev cuam tshuam luv luv no yog ze li niaj hnub no raws li nws tau ua ua ntej xyoo 2007-2009 dais lag luam uas nrog Ntiaj Teb Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag thiab thaum lub sij hawm poob ceev uas nrog. thawj qhov kev kaw cia ntawm Covid-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw. Qhov ntawd yog hais txog txaus, tau kawg, tab sis Ringgenberg hauv kev xam phaj kuj tau ua tib zoo mloog rau qhov nce ntawm qhov sib piv xyoo dhau los - ib qho ntawm cov ntse tshaj plaws hauv xyoo.
Qhov kev nce siab no yog ib qho kev txhawj xeeb tshwj xeeb vim nws txhais tau hais tias cov neeg muag khoom luv luv tau dhau los ua kev poob qis dua vim cov nqi tau poob qis. Qhov ntawd, nyob rau hauv lem, txhais tau hais tias lawv ntseeg tias cov khoom lag luam tseem tsis tshua txaus nyiam tam sim no dua li lawv tau ua ntej xyoo no.
Nws yog ib txwm tsim nyog hais txog, txawm li cas los xij, tsis muaj qhov taw qhia zoo meej. Kuv tau tsom mus rau Ringgenberg qhov kev tsis txaus ntseeg hauv ib qho kem lub Peb Hlis dhau los no, thaum nws qis dua li niaj hnub no thiab ze rau nruab nrab. Txawm li cas los xij, S&P 500
SPX,
-2.80%
yog 9.2% hnub no qis dua qhov nws tau sawv thaum ntawd.
Yog li ntawd tsis muaj guarantees, raws li yeej tsis muaj.
Vim li cas cov neeg muag khoom luv luv yog qhov raug ntau dua li qhov tsis raug?
Yog vim li cas cov neeg muag khoom luv luv yog qhov raug ntau dua li qhov tsis raug yog tias muaj kev cuam tshuam loj heev rau kev muag khoom luv luv, raws li Adam Reed, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm University of North Carolina ntawm Chapel Hill. Vim yog cov teeb meem no, cov neeg muag khoom luv luv yuav tsum tau cog lus tshwj xeeb thiab ntseeg siab. Txawm hais tias qhov ntawd tsis tau txhais hais tias lawv yuav yog qhov tseeb, nws txhais tau hais tias qhov txawv ntawm lawv qhov kev nyiam ntau dua li cov tub ua lag luam uas tsuas yog yuav cov khoom lag luam.
Reed tau muab ntau yam piv txwv ntawm cov teeb meem uas cov neeg muag khoom luv luv ntsib, suav nrog cov nuj nqis thiab qhov nyuaj ntawm kev qiv qiv nyiaj kom luv luv (uas qee zaum yog qhov txaus ntshai), qhov kev poob qis ntawm kev muag luv luv (uas yog infinite), txoj cai uptick uas tiv thaiv luv muag ntawm tus zuam down yog tias kev lag luam poob, thiab lwm yam.
Cov kab hauv qab? Kev nce qib tsis ntev los no hauv kev txaus siab luv luv yog kev txhawj xeeb. Txawm hais tias koj tsis xav tias kev ua lag luam muaj ntau qhov kev poob qis, koj tab tom kidding koj tus kheej yog tias koj xav tias qhov uptick tiag tiag yog bullish.
Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv].
Tswv yim: Ib qho ntawm cov khoom lag luam txhim khu kev qha tshaj plaws - luv luv-interest piv - yog ze rau cov ntaub ntawv siab, thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov tsis zoo.
Joe Raedle / Getty dluab
Cov bulls tab tom tuav ntawm straws thaum lawv ua kev zoo siab rau qhov tsis ntev los no ntawm kev muag khoom luv luv.
Lawv yuam kev ntseeg tias cov paj laum luv - feem pua ntawm lub tuam txhab cov khoom lag luam uas muag luv luv - yog qhov qhia tsis sib xws. Yog hais tias yog li ntawd, nws yuav yog bullish thaum luv luv paj piv yog siab, raws li nws yog tam sim no. Qhov tseeb, cov muag luv luv, uas tau nyiaj thaum lub tuam txhab cov khoom lag luam poob, feem ntau yog qhov tsis raug.
Yog li tsis ntev los no spike upward nyob rau hauv luv luv paj yog ib qho kev txhawj xeeb. Qhov ntawd yog raws li kev tshawb fawb los ntawm Matthew Ringgenberg, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm University of Utah thiab yog ib qho ntawm cov kws tshaj lij kev tshaj lij ntawm kev txhais cov neeg muag khoom luv luv.
Nyob rau hauv nws seminal kawm txog qhov no, nws tau tshaj tawm tias, thaum txhais tau zoo, qhov luv-muag piv "yog qhov sib cav uas paub zoo tshaj plaws ntawm cov khoom lag luam rov qab" tom qab 12 lub hlis tom ntej, ua tau zoo dua ib qho ntawm cov cim nrov siv los kwv yees rov qab - xws li tus nqi- cov nyiaj tau los lossis tus nqi-rau-phau ntawv piv.
Kuv hais txog "kev txhais lus kom raug" yog hais txog Ringgenberg qhov kev tshawb pom tias cov ntaub ntawv luv luv muag tau dhau los ua qhov kev kwv yees zoo dua los ntawm kev nthuav tawm qhov twg qhov muag luv luv piv rau nws cov qauv hauv qab. Qhov sib piv nyoos piv txwv li tus naj npawb ntawm cov khoom muag luv luv raws li feem pua ntawm tag nrho cov shares tseem tshuav. Ringgenberg's detrended version ntawm qhov luv luv-muag piv yog npaj rau hauv daim ntawv nrog, hauv qab no.
Daim ntawv ceeb toom los ntawm daim ntawv qhia tias, tab sis rau ib lub hlis nce siab hauv 2013, qhov kev cuam tshuam luv luv no yog ze li niaj hnub no raws li nws tau ua ua ntej xyoo 2007-2009 dais lag luam uas nrog Ntiaj Teb Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag thiab thaum lub sij hawm poob ceev uas nrog. thawj qhov kev kaw cia ntawm Covid-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw. Qhov ntawd yog hais txog txaus, tau kawg, tab sis Ringgenberg hauv kev xam phaj kuj tau ua tib zoo mloog rau qhov nce ntawm qhov sib piv xyoo dhau los - ib qho ntawm cov ntse tshaj plaws hauv xyoo.
Qhov kev nce siab no yog ib qho kev txhawj xeeb tshwj xeeb vim nws txhais tau hais tias cov neeg muag khoom luv luv tau dhau los ua kev poob qis dua vim cov nqi tau poob qis. Qhov ntawd, nyob rau hauv lem, txhais tau hais tias lawv ntseeg tias cov khoom lag luam tseem tsis tshua txaus nyiam tam sim no dua li lawv tau ua ntej xyoo no.
Nws yog ib txwm tsim nyog hais txog, txawm li cas los xij, tsis muaj qhov taw qhia zoo meej. Kuv tau tsom mus rau Ringgenberg qhov kev tsis txaus ntseeg hauv ib qho kem lub Peb Hlis dhau los no, thaum nws qis dua li niaj hnub no thiab ze rau nruab nrab. Txawm li cas los xij, S&P 500
-2.80%
SPX,
yog 9.2% hnub no qis dua qhov nws tau sawv thaum ntawd.
Yog li ntawd tsis muaj guarantees, raws li yeej tsis muaj.
Vim li cas cov neeg muag khoom luv luv yog qhov raug ntau dua li qhov tsis raug?
Yog vim li cas cov neeg muag khoom luv luv yog qhov raug ntau dua li qhov tsis raug yog tias muaj kev cuam tshuam loj heev rau kev muag khoom luv luv, raws li Adam Reed, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm University of North Carolina ntawm Chapel Hill. Vim yog cov teeb meem no, cov neeg muag khoom luv luv yuav tsum tau cog lus tshwj xeeb thiab ntseeg siab. Txawm hais tias qhov ntawd tsis tau txhais hais tias lawv yuav yog qhov tseeb, nws txhais tau hais tias qhov txawv ntawm lawv qhov kev nyiam ntau dua li cov tub ua lag luam uas tsuas yog yuav cov khoom lag luam.
Reed tau muab ntau yam piv txwv ntawm cov teeb meem uas cov neeg muag khoom luv luv ntsib, suav nrog cov nuj nqis thiab qhov nyuaj ntawm kev qiv qiv nyiaj kom luv luv (uas qee zaum yog qhov txaus ntshai), qhov kev poob qis ntawm kev muag luv luv (uas yog infinite), txoj cai uptick uas tiv thaiv luv muag ntawm tus zuam down yog tias kev lag luam poob, thiab lwm yam.
Cov kab hauv qab? Kev nce qib tsis ntev los no hauv kev txaus siab luv luv yog kev txhawj xeeb. Txawm hais tias koj tsis xav tias kev ua lag luam muaj ntau qhov kev poob qis, koj tab tom kidding koj tus kheej yog tias koj xav tias qhov uptick tiag tiag yog bullish.
Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv].
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/one-of-the-most-reliable-stock-market-indicators-short-interest-ratio-is-near-a-record-high-and-thats- a-bearish-omen-11665145320?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo