Teb Chaws Asmeskas Tshuag thiab cov lag luam daim ntawv cog lus yog thaum kawg nyob rau hauv tus txheej txheem ntawm catch up nrog peb views. Peb ib txwm ntseeg tias ob xyoos dhau los no tau sawv cev rau lub khw muag nyuj cuav uas ua rau cov xuab zeb, tsis yog pob zeb.
Thiab frankly, peb kuj tseem nyob ruaj khov ntawm qhov pom ntawd qhov nyiaj txiag txaus ntshai yuav dhau mus sai sai - lub khw muag nyuj yog nyob rau hauv extrapolation thiab hyperventilation los ntawm economists, strategists, pundits, thiab media hom uas tsis tuaj yeem pom yav dhau los cov lus qhia ntawm lawv lub qhov ntswg. Cov teebmeem lagged los ntawm supercharged US duas
DXY,
+ 0.08%
yog loj heev nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev cuam tshuam rau tus nqi ntawm cov khoom imported. Cov khoom lag luam tau hloov ntawm qhov tsis txaus mus rau ntau dhau thiab yuav tsum tau rov kho dua nrog cov nqi txo nqi.
Kev loj hlob ntawm cov nyiaj tau los tau poob lawm thiab muaj cov mem tes hauv cov nyiaj nrawm. Txoj cai nyiaj txiag, nyob rau hauv ib lub xyoo, tau hloov ntawm radical
kev txhawb siab rau kev tswj hwm uas yuav ua rau cov seem ntawm Tea Party blush. Lub cyclical nam mus rau lub khw muag khoom bull yog nyob rau hauv lub rear-saib daim iav. Thiab raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Thawj Tswj Hwm Jay Powell myopically tsom rau "kev qhib txoj haujlwm," cov ntaub ntawv muag muag heev, nws ploj lawm qhov kev poob haujlwm thiab kev tawm ntawm lub tuam txhab ntiav cov phiaj xwm. Kev nce nqi yuav yaj nyob rau xyoo tom ntej, thiab ob peb (yog tias muaj) tau npaj rau nws.
Kuv xav tias zoo li kuv tab tom rov qab los rau lub caij ntuj sov xyoo 2008. Lub khw lag luam tau ua raws li tus qauv paub txog kev lag luam poob qis. Thawj theem yog Fed-induced P/E ntau contraction. Feem ntau, thawj 20% drawdown yog txhua yam hais txog yuav ua li cas kua dej ua rau P / E ntau yam kom ntsws - feem ntau yog plaub feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus hauv thawj ntu ntawm kev lag luam poob qis.
Lub sijhawm no nyob ib puag ncig, qhov compression tau tsib ntau lub ntsiab lus txij li thaum ntxov 2022 ncov. Zoo meej npaum li cas. Txhua qhov kev poob nyiaj txiag hauv kev lag luam yuav tsum muaj kev sib cog lus hauv cov nyiaj tau los, uas tseem tsis tau tshwm sim. Raws li kuv tau hais, nws yog txhua yam hais txog ntau yam. Txog tam sim no, yog. Ib qho kev poob qis-vanilla GDP, txawm tias mob me lossis hnyav npaum li cas, pom cov txiaj ntsig kev lag luam poob ntau dua 20% los ntawm qhov siab tshaj.
Qhov ntawd yog khau tom ntej kom poob. Nws kuj txhais tau hais tias ib zaug cov kws tshuaj ntsuam pib los tuav qhov tseeb thiab pib txiav lawv cov lej, cov tub ua lag luam uas tau poob lawv cov ntiv taw rov qab mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam tam sim no vim lawv ntseeg tias cov txiaj ntsig tau txhim kho" txaus yuav ntsib lawv tus kheej qhov tseeb tias, tsis yog - raws li qhov kev pom zoo yuav raug yuam kom mus rau lawv qhov kev kwv yees EPS yav tom ntej - kev lag luam ncaj ncees tsis yog ze li "pheej yig" raws li nws zoo li tam sim no.
Tsis muaj leej twg tuaj yeem hu lub tswb ntawm lub ncov lossis troughs. Tab sis muaj cov qauv tsim tau zoo ntawm qhov qis qis. Rau ib qho, kev pom kev lag luam yuav tsum dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas yuav tsum ua kom lawv cov nyiaj tau los poob qis dua. Tsis muaj kev lag luam trough kom txog rau thaum Fed tau ua tiav nruj, thiab hauv kev lag luam poob qis uas tsis zoo rau kev ua lag luam poob qis (raws li nyob rau xyoo 2018), nws yuav siv txoj cai yooj yim los txo qis kev lag luam hauv lub sijhawm ntawd. nyob deb.
Nyeem: Yuav ua li cas kom tau txais thaum koj tab tom cia siab tias Fed tus nqi nce mus rau cov vaj tsev, cov khoom lag luam thiab lwm yam 'paub tseeb'
Tebchaws Asmeskas cov khw lag luam tseem xav tau kev pab los ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag rau "cov txheeb ze" kev txhawb nqa. Yav dhau los, qhov kawg ntawm lub lag luam dais hauv vaj huam sib luag yuav tsum muaj qhov nruab nrab 135 hauv paus-point (1.35 feem pua cov ntsiab lus) poob hauv 10-xyoo Treasury
TUBMUSD 10Y,
2.846%
tawm los. Ua ntej leej twg tuaj yeem tig bullish ntawm cov khoom lag luam, keeb kwm qhia tau hais tias peb xav tau ib daim ntawv cog lus loj ua ntej. Memo rau cov khoom vaj khoom tsev sib xyaw pab pawg: Qhov ntawd txhais tau tias ib daim ntawv rov qab qis dua 2%.
Tsis tas li ntawd, nco ntsoov tias cov nyiaj tau los ntawm S&P 500
SPX,
+ 1.86%
yog ib tug puny 1.5% - dais kev lag luam feem ntau tsis tas mus txog rau thaum cov nyiaj faib tawm los sib sau ua ke ntawm daim ntawv cog lus yield. Qhov no arithmetically txhais tau tias qis rau S&P 500 ze rau 3,300. Yog li cov lus teb tsis yog, peb tseem tsis tau muaj.
David Rosenberg yog tus thawj tswj hwm thiab tus tsim ntawm lub tuam txhab tshawb fawb Rosenberg Research. Sau npe rau qhov kev sim pub dawb, ib hlis sim ntawm lub Rosenberg tshawb fawb lub vev xaib.
ntxiv: Cov lus dab neeg no Wall Street tau nyob hauv txhua lub lag luam dais txij li xyoo 1950s. Nws hais tias ib qho tuaj yeem tsoo S&P 500 nrog 30% poob
Plus: 'Fed ib txwm rub tawm': Tus kws tshaj lij no pom kev nce nqi nce siab thiab Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam hauv lub lag luam dais thaum lub caij ntuj sov
Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i-feel-like-i-am-reliving-the-summer-of-2008-strategist-david-rosenberg-sees-bear-market-sinking-the-s-p-500-to-3-300-11653333623?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Tswv yim: 'Kuv xav tias zoo li kuv tab tom ua rau lub caij ntuj sov xyoo 2008.' Tus kws tshaj lij David Rosenberg pom kev lag luam dais hauv S&P 500 txog 3,300
Teb Chaws Asmeskas Tshuag thiab cov lag luam daim ntawv cog lus yog thaum kawg nyob rau hauv tus txheej txheem ntawm catch up nrog peb views. Peb ib txwm ntseeg tias ob xyoos dhau los no tau sawv cev rau lub khw muag nyuj cuav uas ua rau cov xuab zeb, tsis yog pob zeb.
Thiab frankly, peb kuj tseem nyob ruaj khov ntawm qhov pom ntawd qhov nyiaj txiag txaus ntshai yuav dhau mus sai sai - lub khw muag nyuj yog nyob rau hauv extrapolation thiab hyperventilation los ntawm economists, strategists, pundits, thiab media hom uas tsis tuaj yeem pom yav dhau los cov lus qhia ntawm lawv lub qhov ntswg. Cov teebmeem lagged los ntawm supercharged US duas
+ 0.08%
DXY,
yog loj heev nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev cuam tshuam rau tus nqi ntawm cov khoom imported. Cov khoom lag luam tau hloov ntawm qhov tsis txaus mus rau ntau dhau thiab yuav tsum tau rov kho dua nrog cov nqi txo nqi.
Kev loj hlob ntawm cov nyiaj tau los tau poob lawm thiab muaj cov mem tes hauv cov nyiaj nrawm. Txoj cai nyiaj txiag, nyob rau hauv ib lub xyoo, tau hloov ntawm radical
kev txhawb siab rau kev tswj hwm uas yuav ua rau cov seem ntawm Tea Party blush. Lub cyclical nam mus rau lub khw muag khoom bull yog nyob rau hauv lub rear-saib daim iav. Thiab raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Thawj Tswj Hwm Jay Powell myopically tsom rau "kev qhib txoj haujlwm," cov ntaub ntawv muag muag heev, nws ploj lawm qhov kev poob haujlwm thiab kev tawm ntawm lub tuam txhab ntiav cov phiaj xwm. Kev nce nqi yuav yaj nyob rau xyoo tom ntej, thiab ob peb (yog tias muaj) tau npaj rau nws.
Kuv xav tias zoo li kuv tab tom rov qab los rau lub caij ntuj sov xyoo 2008. Lub khw lag luam tau ua raws li tus qauv paub txog kev lag luam poob qis. Thawj theem yog Fed-induced P/E ntau contraction. Feem ntau, thawj 20% drawdown yog txhua yam hais txog yuav ua li cas kua dej ua rau P / E ntau yam kom ntsws - feem ntau yog plaub feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus hauv thawj ntu ntawm kev lag luam poob qis.
Lub sijhawm no nyob ib puag ncig, qhov compression tau tsib ntau lub ntsiab lus txij li thaum ntxov 2022 ncov. Zoo meej npaum li cas. Txhua qhov kev poob nyiaj txiag hauv kev lag luam yuav tsum muaj kev sib cog lus hauv cov nyiaj tau los, uas tseem tsis tau tshwm sim. Raws li kuv tau hais, nws yog txhua yam hais txog ntau yam. Txog tam sim no, yog. Ib qho kev poob qis-vanilla GDP, txawm tias mob me lossis hnyav npaum li cas, pom cov txiaj ntsig kev lag luam poob ntau dua 20% los ntawm qhov siab tshaj.
Qhov ntawd yog khau tom ntej kom poob. Nws kuj txhais tau hais tias ib zaug cov kws tshuaj ntsuam pib los tuav qhov tseeb thiab pib txiav lawv cov lej, cov tub ua lag luam uas tau poob lawv cov ntiv taw rov qab mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam tam sim no vim lawv ntseeg tias cov txiaj ntsig tau txhim kho" txaus yuav ntsib lawv tus kheej qhov tseeb tias, tsis yog - raws li qhov kev pom zoo yuav raug yuam kom mus rau lawv qhov kev kwv yees EPS yav tom ntej - kev lag luam ncaj ncees tsis yog ze li "pheej yig" raws li nws zoo li tam sim no.
Tsis muaj leej twg tuaj yeem hu lub tswb ntawm lub ncov lossis troughs. Tab sis muaj cov qauv tsim tau zoo ntawm qhov qis qis. Rau ib qho, kev pom kev lag luam yuav tsum dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb. Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas yuav tsum ua kom lawv cov nyiaj tau los poob qis dua. Tsis muaj kev lag luam trough kom txog rau thaum Fed tau ua tiav nruj, thiab hauv kev lag luam poob qis uas tsis zoo rau kev ua lag luam poob qis (raws li nyob rau xyoo 2018), nws yuav siv txoj cai yooj yim los txo qis kev lag luam hauv lub sijhawm ntawd. nyob deb.
Nyeem: Yuav ua li cas kom tau txais thaum koj tab tom cia siab tias Fed tus nqi nce mus rau cov vaj tsev, cov khoom lag luam thiab lwm yam 'paub tseeb'
Tebchaws Asmeskas cov khw lag luam tseem xav tau kev pab los ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag rau "cov txheeb ze" kev txhawb nqa. Yav dhau los, qhov kawg ntawm lub lag luam dais hauv vaj huam sib luag yuav tsum muaj qhov nruab nrab 135 hauv paus-point (1.35 feem pua cov ntsiab lus) poob hauv 10-xyoo Treasury
2.846%
TUBMUSD 10Y,
tawm los. Ua ntej leej twg tuaj yeem tig bullish ntawm cov khoom lag luam, keeb kwm qhia tau hais tias peb xav tau ib daim ntawv cog lus loj ua ntej. Memo rau cov khoom vaj khoom tsev sib xyaw pab pawg: Qhov ntawd txhais tau tias ib daim ntawv rov qab qis dua 2%.
Tsis tas li ntawd, nco ntsoov tias cov nyiaj tau los ntawm S&P 500
+ 1.86%
SPX,
yog ib tug puny 1.5% - dais kev lag luam feem ntau tsis tas mus txog rau thaum cov nyiaj faib tawm los sib sau ua ke ntawm daim ntawv cog lus yield. Qhov no arithmetically txhais tau tias qis rau S&P 500 ze rau 3,300. Yog li cov lus teb tsis yog, peb tseem tsis tau muaj.
David Rosenberg yog tus thawj tswj hwm thiab tus tsim ntawm lub tuam txhab tshawb fawb Rosenberg Research. Sau npe rau qhov kev sim pub dawb, ib hlis sim ntawm lub Rosenberg tshawb fawb lub vev xaib.
ntxiv: Cov lus dab neeg no Wall Street tau nyob hauv txhua lub lag luam dais txij li xyoo 1950s. Nws hais tias ib qho tuaj yeem tsoo S&P 500 nrog 30% poob
Plus: 'Fed ib txwm rub tawm': Tus kws tshaj lij no pom kev nce nqi nce siab thiab Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam hauv lub lag luam dais thaum lub caij ntuj sov
Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i-feel-like-i-am-reliving-the-summer-of-2008-strategist-david-rosenberg-sees-bear-market-sinking-the-s-p-500-to-3-300-11653333623?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo